Coronavirus briefing: Europe still in dire straits
Coronavirus briefing: Europe still in dire straits
The epidemic

  • Global cases have risen further, driven by Europe. France, Italy and the UK record the most daily cases in total. There are signs that restrictions may have started to bite in some countries, such as the UK and the Netherlands. However, reduced testing in some countries also plays in.
  • In the US, total cases have continued to rise rapidly and trend up in many states. Testing has continued to increase which may explain some of the increase, but cases trend up more sharply. Deaths remain stable overall but trend up in the most affected states.
  • In India, daily cases have stabilized after the recent weeks’ declines.
  • In the Nordics, daily cases have continued to surge in Sweden and have also risen considerably in Denmark and Norway. Coronavirus hospitalisations have also continued to rise in these three countries. In Finland the data has been more stable, however.
  • In the Baltics, cases have continued to rise fast, especially in Lithuania. Deaths have also continued up in Lithuania and Latvia, now over the per capita levels in Sweden and Denmark.

Policy

  • Greece entered its second lockdown on Saturday.
  • In Sweden, local restrictions were added in Kronoberg and Södermansland regions. Norway added a host of social distancing rules and Oslo was placed under extra restrictions for three weeks.
  • The Latvian government announced a strict lockdown where most retailers and entertainment venues must close and higher school classes are in distance learning.
  • The Estonian government has announced increased social distancing guidelines.
  • The Swedish government extended its revenue loss -based business support until October and tax deferrals for companies by a year. SR reports that the furlough scheme will be extended to June. 
  • The Italian government added over 2.8 bn EUR in a relief package to businesses.
  • Bank of England increased QE by more than expected, by 150 bn GBP, in its meeting last week.

Economic effects

  • US nonfarm payrolls surprised positively in October. However, a slowdown is expected.
  • Swedish GDP showed a solid rebound in the third quarter. The PVI and industrial orders pointed at a slowdown in September, even if the activity indicator was somewhat more upbeat.
  • Both the Swedish manufacturing and services PMI continued up in October, though the rate slowed down in services.

PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Maija Kaartinen
Economist
Swedbank AB (publ)
SE-105 34 Stockholm
Phone: +46 8 700 92 73
research.swedbank.se


Subscribe »
This letter is distributed by Swedbank in cooperation with Brightly. The letter is personal.
You need Adobe Acrobat Reader to show PDF documents. (download here)