Coronavirus briefing: Heavy restrictions across large swathes of Europe
Coronavirus briefing: Heavy restrictions across large swathes of Europe
The epidemic

  • Recorded cases in Europe have continued to rise very fast. Deaths are also up in several countries. France and the UK lead in the total number of cases. Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Belgium have measured the most daily cases per capita in the EU.
  • In the US, the cases continue to rise, though at a slightly more moderate pace than in the EU.
  • Daily cases and deaths have continued up in Russia and down in India.
  • The Nordics and the Baltics continue to record fewer daily cases per capita than most of the EU.
  • Daily cases remained relatively stable in Denmark and fell slightly in Norway over the past week while the data points at a continued rising trend in Sweden and Finland.
  • The number of corona hospitalisations has also risen slightly in Sweden and Finland. 
  • In Latvia and Lithuania, daily cases have continued to surge. Estonia has seen a decline, however.

Policy

  • Big parts of Europe have seen heavier restrictions that already considerably limit businesses and public life. Among others, bars and restaurants were closed in the Netherlands and Belgium, different households may no longer socialize indoors in London, and nighttime curfews were introduced in nine cities in France. Italy and Germany added more limited restrictions. 
  • Johnson & Johnson had to pause their vaccine trial after a volunteer fell ill.
  • A WHO study found that remdesivir and other antivirals had little or no effect on mortality.
  • The Finnish government recommends limiting gatherings to 20 or 10 people in affected regions.
  • In Latvia, restrictions were announced on private events and free time activities, among others.
  • Italy announced a new stimulus package as part of its 2021 budget, including 4 bn EUR in compensation to businesses and an extension of the temporary lay-off scheme. 
Economic effects

  • US retail sales surprised on the upside in September, while industrial production disappointed. The weekly jobless numbers showed a rise in new jobless claims. 
  • Chinese GDP growth rose to 4.9% y/y in the third quarter, somewhat below market expectations. Nevertheless, GDP numbers and September data confirm a picture of continued solid recovery.
  • Swedish inflation data came in weaker than expected, read more here
  • Swedish LFS data showed a small decline in unemployment, but this was driven by weak labour force development, while hours worked declined, read more here.
  • Housing prices in Sweden rose by 1.1% compared to August and are up 8.9% over the year. Activity remains high going into October, read more here.

PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Maija Kaartinen
Economist
Swedbank AB (publ)
SE-105 34 Stockholm
Phone: +46 8 700 92 73
research.swedbank.se


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