Coronavirus briefing: Restrictions in Europe remain targeted
Coronavirus briefing: Restrictions in Europe remain targeted

The epidemic

  • Global cases have continued to rise. India’s trend has turned downwards, however.
  • The rebound in US cases has continued, with a concerning trend in many states.
  • Cases have continued up in Europe, driven by Spain, France, and the UK. Per capita, Spain also has the most daily cases, followed by Czech Republic, France, and the Netherlands.
  • Cases and deaths have again risen in Russia over September.
  • Daily cases have continued to increase fast in Denmark. Cases have also trended higher in Sweden and Finland. Hospital and deaths data also show a slight increase in Denmark but have remained stable in the other Nordics.
  • In the Baltics, daily cases have continued to rise relatively fast in Lithuania and Estonia where they are now at similar per capita levels as in Sweden. Cases in Latvia have also picked up.

Policy

  • In the EU, restrictions have increased in many countries but they remain targeted. In the UK, restrictions were placed on restaurants, meetings, and events. Local partial lockdowns have been set in parts of Madrid. In France, limits have been placed on restaurants and gatherings.
  • According to a US study, the virus is likely becoming more contagious as it mutates.
  • US public health expert Anthony Fauci commented that treatments given at the early stages of an infection to prevent lung damage could become an important solution.
  • Finland reintroduced restrictions on travel from Sweden, Norway, and Estonia, among others. Masks are recommended in indoor public places and larger events in some regions.
  • The Swedish government will not ease restrictions on the public in seated events from October 1, as had been under consideration. Local restrictions could be enforced in Stockholm.
  • In Oslo, meetings were restricted to 10 people.
  • The Swedish Budget bill for 2021 contains new spending worth SEK 105 bn, read more here.
  • The UK government announced a new, trimmed down furlough scheme until March.
  • In the US, House Democrats presented a new stimulus package proposal worth USD 2.5 bn.

Economic effects

  • Euro area’s preliminary PMI data pointed at continued recovery in the industrial sector but negative effects on services from the increased virus spread and restrictions, read more here
  • The Economic Tendency Indicator was a positive surprise for Sweden in September. The increase was broad-based and only the construction sector saw a decline. Generally, both current situation and expectation indices improved, read more here.
  • The pace of recovery of confidence in Finnish industries is slowing down. All sectoral confidence indicators are below their long-term averages in September, read more here.


PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Maija Kaartinen 
Economist 
Swedbank AB (publ) 
SE-105 34 Stockholm 
Phone: +46 8 700 92 73 
research.swedbank.se

 
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