Coronavirus briefing: Europe fears second coronavirus wave
Coronavirus briefing: Europe fears second coronavirus wave

The epidemic

  • Global cases have passed 18 million.
  • In Europe, new cases continue to rise. Spain accounts for a large fraction of new cases in Europe. But cases are rising also in France, Belgium, and Germany. When looking at new cases per million, the situation is especially alarming in the Balkans.
  • In the US, new cases have started to decrease slowly, while deaths have started to increase.
  • In Sweden, new cases have been flat in the past days, while deaths have continued to fall. New cases per million remain quite high, and testing has decreased during the past weeks.
  • Elsewhere in the Nordics, cases in Denmark continue to rise slightly, while in a Norwegian passenger ship, more than 40 people have been infected with the coronavirus.
  • In Lithuania, new cases continue to be higher than a few weeks ago, while a small increase in new cases is visible in Estonia and Latvia during the past few days.

Policy

  • According to Trump’s campaign adviser, the elections would not be postponed.
  • In Australia, the state of Victoria announced further restrictions and declared a state of emergency.
  • In Sweden, the recommendation to work from home continues in the autumn.
  • Last week Republicans unveiled a $1tn stimulus plan cutting jobless benefits. However, the deal remained elusive on Friday, the same day supplemental jobless benefits expired for millions of Americans. Talks on the stimulus package will resume on Monday.
  • The Fed made no policy changes at its meeting last week as expected but remains committed to using its full range of tools to support the US economy.

Economic effects

  • Euro area GDP fell by 12.1% q/q in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest decline in 25 years of economic records. The German economy contracted by a record of 10.1% q/q. The fall was even deeper in France, Spain, and Italy.
  • The US economy shrank by 32.9% y/y in the second quarter of 2020. The plunge was historically large but close to expectations.
  • In Sweden, the PMI rose in July by 3.4 points to 51.0, from a revised 47.6 in June. The manufacturing industry is thus back in the growth zone, for the first time since February.

PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Sonja Liukkonen 
Junior Economist 
Swedbank AB (publ) 
FI-00100 Helsinki 
Phone: +358 400 98 21 59 
research.swedbank.se 


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