Coronavirus briefing: US case growth still a major concern
Coronavirus briefing: US case growth still a major concern

The epidemic

  • Globally recorded daily cases have continued to trend up at a steady pace. The highest number of cases have been recorded in the US, India, Brazil, and other parts of Latin America.
  • In the US, both the total daily confirmed cases and deaths have continued to increase.
  • Total cases in Europe have remained stable. Cases recorded in Spain have increased.
  • A study published in Nature suggests that the T cell response to the virus could last for as many as 17 years. T cells have been detected even in people who have tested negative for antibodies. A UK study indicates that the antibody response may start to wane after only two months.
  • Sweden’s daily recorded cases and deaths, as well as the number of patients hospitalised and in intensive care have continued to trend down. Daily recorded cases have picked up somewhat in Denmark and in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, but the weekly averages remain low.
  • Swedish health authorities commented that the share of Stockholm population with some level of immunity could be around 40%, given that 17.5-20% of the population have antibodies and the share with T cells could be equally large.

Policy

  • Restrictions were ramped up due to new outbreaks in Hong Kong and parts of Australia and Spain.
  • In the US, New York continues with its reopening while many states now require the use of masks.
  • In the UK, restrictions on public transport and office work were loosened.
  • Several encouraging news on vaccine development: among others, the early stage trials of a new Moderna vaccine showed high levels of immunity but also relatively strong side effects.
  • After a cluster of cases, Latvia started to register all incoming travellers.
  • In the EU top summit, a compromise was reached where 390 bn EUR would consist of grants, from original 500 bn EUR. Details still have to be worked out and the meeting continues today.

Economic effects

  • Chinese GDP expanded more than expected in Q2. June exports and imports were stronger than expected and industrial production continued to expand while retail sales disappointed.
  • US retail sales and industrial production increased more than expected in June. Weekly unemployment figures declined less than expected and remain at concerningly high levels.
  • In Sweden, PES data continues to show increasing unemployment. Broad recovery continued in Swedish housing prices according to June data from Valueguard, read more here



PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Maija Kaartinen 
Economist 
Swedbank AB (publ) 
SE-105 34 Stockholm 
Phone: +46 8 700 92 73 
research.swedbank.se 


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