Coronavirus briefing: Concerning signs in European and Swedish data
Coronavirus briefing: Concerning signs in European and Swedish data

The epidemic

  • Data shows continued stability in Russia and the US. Brazil still accounted for the most cases.
  • Data from Europe, where the declining trend in daily cases has ceased, rises some concerns: recorded cases have continued to trend up in France and Germany’s reproduction number is again above 1. This could still be temporary, however.
  • Daily cases in South Korea have continued to rise and are now in par with Japan. Daily cases have continued to decline in Singapore but remain relatively high.
  • Daily recorded cases continue to increase in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. Iran is going through a second wave as an increasing daily case count witnesses.
  • Swedish data also shows some concerning signs: daily recorded cases have continued to rise and the number on patients in hospitals and intensive care, for long declining, seems to have stabilised.

Policy

  • The Netherlands opened bars and restaurants yesterday.
  • South Africa cancelled planned school reopening due to continued concern over the epidemic.
  • The Japanese government considers allowing travel from selected countries.
  • The Mexican government has announced that the lockdowns will be lifted in parts of the country. With a large share of the country deemed as high risk, however, the scope of this will be limited.
  • Results from a large trial of Gilead’s antiviral drug remdesivir showed underwhelming results: moderately ill patients showed a modest improvement during first five days of care, but a longer treatment did not yield extra benefits.
  • Lithuania has opened its borders to several countries but still excludes Sweden.

Economic effects

  • Manufacturing PMI data improved somewhat across Europe and the US (ISM) but remained at low levels. The figures indicate that the contraction in manufacturing activity has slowed down.
  • Norwegian labour market data points at broad improvement across sectors and the unemployment rate declined in May. Norway’s consumer confidence index rebounded.
  • Swedish weekly PES data showed that redundancies continued down to the lowest weekly figure since the crisis began. Continuing claims also declined. However, the number of newly registered unemployed picked up slightly and unemployment continues to rise at a rapid rate. 


PDF-Document Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)


Maija Kaartinen 
Economist 
Swedbank AB (publ) 
SE-105 34 Stockholm 
Phone: +46 8 700 92 73 
research.swedbank.se 


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