Flash comment: Lithuania - October 9, 2017
Inflation picks up to 4.8% in September
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 1% in September, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.8%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3%.

Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods accelerated from 3.8% in August to 4.4% in September. Meanwhile, annual growth in the prices of services stabilized at 6%.

Overall the accelerated growth in CPI was mostly fueled by rising prices of oil and dairy products, the effects of rapid wage growth and hiked excise duties were also prominent. In September oil prices were 13% higher than a year ago, while price of butter increased by over 60% over the year. Together fuel and dairy products contributed 0.8 p.p. to annual inflation in September. According to our estimates, excise duty hikes on alcohol and tobacco contributed 1 p.p. to annual inflation and the effect will dissipate only in spring.

Price growth is fuelled by taxes and commodities

The average annual inflation should settle at around 3.5% for this year and should ease to 3% next year as the temporary effects start to wear off and the nominal wage growth, which has been an important driver in services inflation, moderates somewhat.

For more information about this report, please contact Mr. Vytenis Šimkus, +370 5 258 5163, vytenis.simkus@swedbank.lt
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