Flash comment: Lithuania - November 11, 2016
Employment growth is slowing down

Unemployment dropped to 7.5% in the third quarter this year – 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained high and labour force increased despite contracting working age population over a year. Annual employment growth slowed down from 2.4% in the first half of this year to 1.6% in the third quarter, but employment rate still reached new record highs.

Outlook: employment growth will continue to subside

Registered employment according to Lithuanian labour exchange remained weak in October while number of registered unemployed also continued contracting. Despite recent uptick in immigration, the pace of emigration growth continues to outpace the immigration growth. Moreover, there are limits to further activity increase. As the number of unemployed shrinks and structural unemployment remains at an elevated level we expect employment to start shrinking from the next year. This will slow down the decrease in unemployment, but it will still fall to around 7% in 2018 due to shrinking labour force.

For more information about this report, please contact Ms. Vaiva Šečkutė, +370 5 258 2156, Vaiva.Seckute@swedbank.lt

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