Latvia: GDP in 2020 down by 3.6%
- GDP in Q4 grew 1.1% vs Q3. The economy was 1.5% behind last year’s level.
- GDP in 2020 fell by 3.6% - a slightly worse result than the flash estimate suggested
- Main negative contributor in Q4 and the whole year was private consumption, while export performance in Q4 was stellar.
In Q4 of last year investment, government consumption, exports as well as imports were all already above the pre-crisis levels. The only laggard that was still notably down YoY was private consumption.
In sector terms, Q4 saw strongest growth in agriculture, health care, manufacturing and real estate.
Swedbank projections imply a 2.8% growth this year. The current situation is not encouraging though - virus is slow to retreat and vaccination process is going at a snail’s pace. This means that the risks to the forecast are skewed to the downside.
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