Flash comment: Estonia - July 7, 2016
Consumer prices continued to decline in the first half of 2016

• Cheaper energy and food behind the decline in prices
• Price growth is expected to be flat in 2016

In June 2016, consumer prices decreased by 0.4%, year on year, in Estonia. Goods were 0.6% and services 0.1% cheaper compared to one year ago. Consumer prices declined due to lower energy and food prices.

Motor fuels were 10% and heat energy 9% cheaper than in June 2015. In global markets, crude oil prices were around 20% lower than one year ago in EUR terms. In Estonia, in June, food prices declined by 1%. Abundant supply and favourable weather conditions have pushed down the prices of vegetables, milk, and meat products.

According to our current estimates, consumer prices are expected to be flat in 2016. Deflation should end during the second half of the year due to higher prices of commodities, especially oil, and an increase in excise tax rates of motor fuels, alcohol beverages, and tobacco.

For more information about this report, please contact Ms. Liis Elmik, liis.elmik@swedbank.ee, +372 888 7206.

This letter is distributed by Swedbank in cooperation with Brightly. The letter is personal.