Baltic Archive

Solid but sustainable growthDespite long expansion excesses have been avoided For small extremely open economies it is crucial to avoid significant imbalances The temperature of Baltic economies has not changed significantly over the past year. Eco..

Inflation was relatively weak at the end of last year, given the rapid growth in wages and other income. Inflation was moderate due to weak external price pressures and lower excise tax rates on alcohol. In December, inflation amounted to just 1.8%..

Weak global trade and escalating trade tensions did not significantly affect Lithuanian exports, which grew by 7.3% during the first 10 months of 2019. Manufacturing, in general, and furniture, in particular, experiencing strong and consistent grow..

The construction sector will not contribute to economic growth this yearAfter three consecutive years of strong contribution to economic growth, the construction sector is not supporting economic growth this year.Labour shortages in construction ha..

Deal with Tory majority, referendum with Labour win, but hard to guess with Tory minorityOpinion polls suggest a Tory victory, but they should be taken with a grain of saltTactical votes - another complicating factor but probably few in number On ..

In Tallinn, the HAI plunged by 5.7 points in the third quarter of 2019, compared with the third quarter of 2018, and ended at 148.5, as net wage growth was slightly slower than an increase in apartment prices and interest rates. In Riga, the HAI lo..

In Latvia, annual inflation fell to 2.1% in November 2019, and was the lowest since April 2018. The average inflation this year (in 11 months) counted around 2.9%. In November, the growth of commodity prices continued to slow down (1.8%), whi..

Since 2018 repo rates started hovering above the target band It indicates pressures building up in the money markets due to the lack of excess reserves Shortage is exacerbated around quarter and year-ends when a lot of funds are moved around

The rather solid economic growth of 2.9% in Q3 2019 looks somewhat weaker when the data are corrected for the number of working days, resulting in a less optimistic 1.9% year-on-year figure. A key contributor, rather surprisingly, given the ..

Estonia’s GDP grew 4.1% y/y and 1.0% q/q (seasonally and calendar adjusted) in the third quarter this year. Non-adjusted annual growth was 4.2% in real terms and 7.3% in nominal terms. The growth was above our expectations. Economic growth is contr..

Annual growth revised up to 3.7% Household consumption growth is slowing moderately Agriculture bounced back as expected and grew by 11% Both annual and quarterly growth was revised upwards by 0.1pp. Domestic demand remained robust, however hous..

Wage growth remained rapid and broad-based in the third quarter. The average full-time-equivalent gross wage amounted to EUR 1,397, up by 8.2%, over the year. Tax Authority’s gross median wage amounted to EUR 1,100, up by 10% in a year. Wage grow..

Gross wage growth increased to 9.2% Public sector wages grew an impressive 12.2% Private sector annual wage growth recovered to 8% up form 6.3% in the second quarter Data for both economic growth and labour market have been more tepid than expec..

New record According to Statistics Estonia, in the 3rd quarter, the unemployment rate decreased even further to a record-low 3.9%. The estimated number of the employed reached 677,000, the highest number since at least the re-independence (earlier..

In October, the annual rate of inflation softened comparing to higher rates in previous months. The annual inflation rate in October was 2.3%, with goods’ prices rising only by 1.9%, and services’ prices rising by 3%. Annual inflation was driven by..

Labour market data has disappointed in the 3rd quarter of 2019. While unemployed stayed flat compared to previous quarter, it was 0.5 percentage point (pp) higher than a year ago. Weakness is observed across most labour market indicators. Number of..

According to the flash estimate, the quarterly real GDP growth slowed to 0.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted) in the third quarter, which is still quite a decent growth. The annual growth accelerated from 1.8% in the second quarter to 2.8% (not ..

Lithuanian economy is holding up better than most expected given the bleak global outlook. While season and calendar adjusted quarterly growth was only 0.1%, annual growth inched down only slightly down to 3.6 % (unadjusted). Third quarter annual g..

Russia’s GDP growth is expected to remain modest for an emerging market… but its macro-fiscal buffers are strong.The policy mix prioritises stability over growth The list of factors that inhibit Russia’s actual and potential GDP growth is long: low..

In September, the annual rate of inflation slowed down to 2.6% that is the lowest value in 2019. The prices of goods’ were rising by 2.4% and contributed to annual inflation the most, but prices of services’ were rising by 3%. The main determinants..

• Inflation has remained relatively modest despite a rapid growth in wages. • Inflation is forecast at 2.4% this year and at 2.3% in 2020. Inflation slowed from 2.4% in August to 2.2% in September. Goods were 1.4% and services 3.5% more expensive..

In Tallinn, the HAI decreased by 4.6 points to 151.5 in the second quarter of 2019, compared with the second quarter of 2018, as net wage growth was slower than an increase in apartment prices and interest rates.In Riga, the HAI decreased by 4.7 po..

Lithuanians consume a lot more than Estonians and Latvians, despite higher wages in EstoniaDifferences in prices, remittances, saving rates, and, especially, unofficial income may explain this gap But material welfare may not be as good as it seem..

In Latvia, annual inflation reached 3.2% in August 2019. It was above the average of 2018, but ranks only as third in 2019, after April and May highs. The prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco were the fastest growing (5.6% higher than the last..

Demographics and productivity are the main drivers of interest rates in the upcoming decades Without an increase in potential GDP growth, interest rates will remain low and will have many unwelcome side-effects It’s more difficult to stimulate t..

Business sector digitalisation: opportunities and challengesEstonia has been in the forefront of e-Government solutions, but integration of innovative digital technologies in the business sector is still below the European Union average.Estonian ma..

Economic growth is still strong despite weakened foreign demandIn the second quarter of 2019, Estonian GDP growth slowed to 3.6% y/y in real terms and to 7.9% y/y in nominal terms. In the first half of this year, GDP growth was 4.2% in real terms. ..

Against most expectations, the Lithuanian economy bucked the trend in the first half of 2019 – GDP has increased by 4% (when season and calendar adjusted) and 4.1% (without the adjustments), compared to the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, in..

Wage growth is rapid and broad-based. The average gross wage amounted to EUR 1,419, up by 7.4%, over the year, in the second quarter. Wage growth was broad-based, in terms of sectors and levels. Tax Authority’s wage data show that the average gross..

Despite softening economic growth and the first signs of weakening in the labour market, wages are still increasing rapidly. The annual gross wage growth remained steady at 7.8% in the second quarter. Public sector wage growth has eased this year, ..

Despite slower economic growth, the unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in the second quarter. It was by 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the previous year. The number of unemployed declined by 18% largely driven by shrinking working age populati..

No significant changes in Q2 data According to Statistics Estonia, labour market remained tight but did not improve further in the 2nd quarter. The number of the employed and the number of the unemployed stayed at last year’s level. Employment’s ..

Unemployment has shrunk 0.4pp in the second quarter of 2019 but was 0.2pp higher than a year ago – the first annual increase in unemployment since 2010. However, the reasons for increase in unemployment is not a sign of distress or weakening in eco..

Annual inflation was 2.9% in July that is below its 7 months average in 2019. Inflation of both goods and services moderated to 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. Prices of services experienced the smallest annual increase in 2019. The main drivers of ann..

Due to the summer sales, monthly prices have decreased by 0.3% in July, whereas annual inflation remained steady for a sixth month in a row and stood at 2.4%. Prices of goods were 1.9% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.5%. ..

Economic growth continued into the second quarter, however, the annual growth rate slowed. According to the flash estimate, the quarterly GDP growth rebounded to 0.8% (seasonally and calendar adjusted), while the annual growth slowed to 2.1% (not a..

Lithuanian economy remained resilient to the global challenges and continued growing at an accelerated pace. GDP has increased by 4% (when season and calendar adjusted) and 4.1% (without the adjustments) in the second quarter of this year, compa..

In June, the annual rate of inflation continues to slow down comparing to higher rate in April, but still is at 3% level. The annual inflation rate in June was 3%, with goods’ prices rising by 3.1%, and services’ prices rising by 2.9%. The annual r..

In June, inflation reached 2.4%, over the year. Goods were 1.8% and services 3.5% more expensive. Almost half of the increase in prices resulted from higher prices of food and housing. The prices of fresh vegetables have surged due to a drought las..

In Tallinn, the HAI stayed almost unchanged (-0.1 point) at 151.9 in the first quarter of 2019, compared with the first quarter of 2018, as net wage growth was slightly slower than an increase in apartment prices and interest rates.In Riga, the HAI..

Strong beginning of 2019 exceeded expectationsEconomic growth remained very strong at the beginning of 2019. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP growth in Estonia accelerated to 4.5% yoy in real terms and to 8.5% yoy in nominal terms. Strong first qu..

Even though Lithuania is an open economy, greatly dependent on imports and exports, country’s growth pace shows it is still reluctant to the global challenges, such as US-China trade war and German slowdown. GDP figures show that Lithuanian econ..

In the first quarter of 2019, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1341, up by 8.0%, in a year. The average gross wage increased in almost all sectors. Wage growth was more rapid in construction, where volumes have grown markedly in rec..

Wage dynamics of the last year continued in first quarter. Gross wage growth adjusted for tax reform eased by 0.3pp to 9.4%. In private sector wage growth cooled off by 1.1pp down to 7.4%. Meanwhile in public sector wage growth accelerated further ..

Prime Minister Modi’s ruling alliance is expected to win a thin majority India needs a bold economic reform agendaUntapped potential Indian PM Modi’s party is unlikely to repeat its success of the previous election of 2014, in which its coalition..

• The unemployment rate declined, and the employment rate slightly increased in the first quarter. • According to Swedbank’s forecast, labour market should remain tight this year, so wage pressures persist. Labour market remains tight Accordi

Lithuanian labour market continued its strong run in the first quarter of 2019, solid economic expansion fueled demand for labour. Unemployment rate declined to 6.5%, 0.7pp lower than a year ago. Meanwhile annual employment growth was 2%, well abov..

After two years of rapid growth, the economic expansion moderated at the beginning of 2019. In the first quarter, the annual GDP growth slowed to 2.8% (not seasonally and calendar adjusted) compared to 4.8% last year as a whole. The quarterly growt..

The year is up to a good start. Economy expanded 3.9% annually in this first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, season and calendar adjusted quarterly growth stood at 1%. Growth was supported by very solid domestic demand and still robust external perfor..

In March headline inflation rose by 1.1% over the month, marking a relatively sharp increase in prices compared to March in previous years. Despite that annual inflation slightly eased in March to 2.8%. Both external and internal factors determined..

In March annual inflation rose to 2.6% up from 2.1%, while monthly inflation stood at 0.9%. Prices of goods were 2% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.3% (mostly due to rising costs of public services). Increase of monthly i..

Neighbouring countries' impact on the Estonian economy is waningFinland, Sweden, Latvia, and Russia – Estonian closest neighbours – contribute about one-fifth to Estonian GDP through exports.The share of the four neighbouring countries’ tourists’ e..

Climate change poses risks to financial stability and is thus within central banks’ mandates The Bank of England is in the lead; the Federal Reserve is farthest behind Central banks should step up research, improve disclosure and assess their own b..

In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 10.4 points to 161.9 as rapid wage growth outweighed growing apartment prices and interest rates.In Riga, the HAI improved by 12 points to 191.7 as wage growth outpaced apartment price growth. For new-project and renovat..

Economy heat index for all three economies stayed below long-run average All indicators showed rising temperatures in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania moved sideways Tight labour markets could potentially raise heat

In 2018, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1310, up by 7.3%, in a year. The average gross wage increased in all sectors. The average wage was the highest in ICT and finance. A rapid growth in the average wage is supported by a shorta..

Last year the average gross wage recorded the fastest growth in ten years. It increased by 8.4%, reaching 1004 euros. It was boosted by minimum wage hike (from 380 euros to 430 euros) and tightening labour market. The unemployment rate is at a ten ..

In the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP, seasonally adjusted quarterly growth was revised down from 1.6 to 1.3. This resulted in 3.7% annual growth in fourth quarter and overall 3.4% real GDP expansion in 2018. Consumption remained the main d..

Annual GDP growth in Latvia was 4.8% in 2018. It was a tad stronger than in 2017, the fastest growth in seven years and the fastest growth among the Baltic countries in 2018. It means that income convergence with the neighbours as well as other EU ..

2018 - another strong economic year in EstoniaIn 2018, Estonian GDP growth slowed to 3.9% in real terms and to 8.6% in nominal terms and was supported by domestic demand and strong foreign demand. The growth was still strong and only slightly excee..

The trends in earnings continued in fourth quarter of the 2018. Annual gross wage growth declined by 0.3pp to 9.7%. The gap in in growth rates between public and private sectors widened. Public sector wages grew 12.5% annually, while those of priva..

Rapid economic growth in 2018 has translated into an even tighter labour market, exacerbating labour shortages and maintaining rapid wage growth. The labour market continued to improve in a rapid pace in 2018 despite unfavourable demographic trends..

• In 2018, the employment rate increased even more and the unemployment rate dropped further. • According to Swedbank’s forecast, labour market should remain tight this year, so wage growth will stay rapid. Labour market remains tight Accord..

In January inflation eased to 1.7%, while monthly inflation stood at only 0.2% despite sharp increase in electricity prices. Interestingly, prices of public good and services increased by 5% while market prices increased only by 1.2% annually. Aver..

Labour market continued to tap into previously underutilised groups of population. The tightness of the labour market incentivises companies to look for employees among the young and the elderly. Similarly, previously inactive people seem to be dra..

The economic growth remained very strong in Latvia at the end of last year. According to the flash estimate, the quarterly GDP growth slightly decelerated, recording still strong 1.1% (seasonally and calendar adjusted) growth, and the annual growth..

Lithuanian economy grew at 3.5% (3.6% seasonally adjusted) annually in 2018, very much in line with our expectations. Economic expansion was supported by solid domestic consumption, active investments and surprisingly strong external sector in a wa..

Average annual inflation was 2.5% in 2018 driven largely by external factors. Transport and housing goods and services accounted for approximately half of the price growth, owing mainly to higher energy prices. Despite Brent crude oil price per bar..

Due to the retreat in the oil prices and Christmas sales prices decreased by 0.6% in December and annual inflation dropped to 1.9%. Prices of goods were 1% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.3%. Housing, electricity and fue..

• Inflation amounted to 3.4% in December and for 2018 as a whole. • In 2019, price growth is expected to slow to 2.8% as energy prices should stabilise and the planned hike of the excise tax on alcohol is cancelled. Inflation stayed at 3.4% in 2..

The Baltic economies will greet the New Year in a balanced state Lithuania cooled slightly, while Latvia and Estonia are catching up Tight labour markets could potentially raise heat

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 134.3 in Vilnius, 186.0 in Riga, and 154.3 in Tallinn. In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.8 points in the third quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as rapid wage growth outweighed gr..

No matter Brexit outcome, trade with the UK will continue but the magnitude of it will depend on future agreement. Over time, however, supply chains and trade patterns could change, making it harder to predict flows of goods and services. If a Brex..

Annual inflation rate eased slightly in November to 3%, growing above 3% in the two preceding months. Prices of both goods and services also grew by 3% on annual basis. The main drivers of annual price growth in November were transport, housing and..

In the third quarter, Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% yoy in real terms. Compared to the previous quarter GDP increased 0.4%, seasonally and working day corrected. In nominal terms, GDP increased 9.5% in the third quarter and 8.5% ytd.Econo..

Revised data show slightly lower growth than the flash estimate suggested in the third quarter of 2018. GDP grew by 4.7% in annual terms while seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was even stronger at 5.3%. As growth in construction eased (10%..

As we expected, quarterly GDP growth has been revised up by one decimal point to -0.3% (SA) in the second GDP estimate. Annual growth has clocked in at 2.4%, two decimal points higher than reported initially. Season and calendar adjusted annual gro..

In the third quarter, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1291, up by 7.5%, in a year. Median wage reached EUR 1000, +10.0%, over the year, according to the Tax Board. The average gross wage increased in all sectors, except for ad..

In the third quarter, the average gross monthly wage was at 1006 euros, up by 8% compared to the same period a year ago. The wage growth was largely driven by pronounced labour shortage, minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year (by 50 euros),..

Top candidates provide different direction for CDU in the future The government parties struggle in polls, while the Greens party surges Whoever wins, the new leader will face tough political and economic decisions The battle to inherit Angela M..

Annual gross wage growth decelerated very slightly to 10% down from 10.5% a quarter ago. Private sector wage growth slowed to 9.3% from 10.4% annually. Meanwhile public sector wages accelerated further to 11.3% annually. Net wages increased by 9%, ..

• Unemployment rate down to 7% • Employment up by 1.9% annually • Number of economically active up by 0.2% annually • Labour shortages remain elevated Ongoing economic expansion continues driving demand for labour. Labour market conditions tigh..

• The shortage of labour is on the same level as in the years of the previous economic boom.• During the next two years, according to Swedbank’s forecast, the gross wage growth should stay at 5-6%, employment rate will remain high and unemployment ..

Annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in October compared to 2.4% in September. On a monthly basis prices grew by 0.6%. Core inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco accelerated to 1.9% up from 1.8%. The main factor determining price d..

Despite the shrinking working-age population the labour market in Lithuania continues to surprise on the upside. The number of employed increased by 1.5%, compared to the same period a year ago, thanks largely to rising employment of men. The unemp..

According to the flash estimate, Latvian economy expanded by 4.8% in Q3 compared to the same period in the previous year (seasonally and calendar unadjusted data). Quarterly growth was exceptionally strong at 1.8% (seasonally and calendar adjusted ..

Lithuanian economy disappointed in the third quarter of 2018. Annual GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% in the second quarter to 2.2% in the third. In seasonally and calendar adjusted terms, in the third quarter GDP increased by 2.7% annually and dec..

The official GDP estimates come out with a substantial lag, but it is possible to determine the current level of economic activity using other indicators. Swedbank economists have developed a tool that allows to predict the current and near future ..

The Baltic economies are operating above their potential No overheating, but economic temperature is rising gradually Monitoring, fiscal prudence, and productivity-boosting reforms are necessary The Baltic economies are now fully recovered fro..

Annual inflation exceeded 3% for the first time in more than a year, reaching 3.2% in September. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate in the past few months have been prices of goods. Categories with the largest contributions to the p..

Annual inflation has rebounded to 2.4% from 2.1% in August. Compared with August prices grew by 1.3%. Several main factors determined price growth recently. First of all, prices of energy products are increasing globally. Automobile fuel and solid ..

Inflation rate has fluctuated between 3% and 4% in recent months. Annual change in consumer prices amounted to 3.7% in September. Among different product groups, the prices of everyday essentials, i.e., housing, food, transport, have been contribut..

Latvia’s labour market is showing some signs of overheating. Although competitiveness pressures are present, they are way below record highs seen in the pre-crisis period. The ongoing economic expansion has brought unemployment rate considerably..

The Baltics get closer to the Western middle class income standard, but income inequality remains an issueA strong and well-off middle class, a sign of lower income inequality, important for economic growth Middle class incomes have grown substanti..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 184.8 in Riga and 131.7 in Vilnius, but decreased to 156.3 in Tallinn.In Tallinn, the HAI fell by 3.1 points in the second quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as apartment price..

Annual inflation eased to 2.1% in August and was the lowest since January 2017. Annual core inflation (without food and energy) stood at a modest 1.5%. The growth of consumer goods prices slowed down to 1.6% in August, while the pace services price..

Revised data show even a bit stronger economic growth in the second quarter than the flash estimate suggested. GDP expanded by 5.3% in annual terms, but seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was at more modest 4.4%. Nominal GDP growth reached a w..

Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 3.7% in the 2nd quarterReal GDP growth in Estonia accelerated to 3.7% yoy in the second quarter of 2018. The growth was stronger than in the first quarter (3.3%). In the first half, GDP growth was 3.5% in real ..

• In the second quarter, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1321, up by 6.4%, in a year. • Swedbank expects gross wage to grow by 6.6% in 2018 and by 6.0% in 2019 • Consumption remains moderate Wage growth decelerated as expect..

Gross wage growth surged to 10.5% in the second quarter of the 2018 again breaking the record for the post-crisis period. The average net wage grew a bit more timidly at 9.5% annually because non-taxable income allowance for children was replaced w..

Is the housing market overheating?Although housing affordability in Estonia has improved, compared with the peak of the last real estate boom, it has stayed at the same level for the past four years.Households’ confidence in purchasing or buildi..

• Employment rose rapidly but only among the part-time workers • The unemployment rate decreased more than expected • The shortage of labour has reached the levels of last economic boom Employment rose rapidly but only among the part-time wo..

Limited impact on real economy from currently introduced sanctions, although some volatility in financial markets Recent weakening of the RUB and decline in stock market is probably an overreaction (i.e. not so much about the currently introduced ..

The rapidly growing economy and high wage growth did not go unnoticed in the labour market. The rate of unemployment dropped to 5.9% in the second quarter of this year and was 1.1 pp lower than a year ago. This was the lowest rate of unemployment s..

Annual inflation rate in July was 2.6%, a tad slower than in June. Although price growth differed across various categories, overall price growth of goods and services remained moderate and similar to that in June. Goods’ prices grew by 2.4% on ann..

Economic growth picked up to 5.1% in annual terms in the second quarter of 2018. However, note that it was partly contributed by larger number of working days. Calendar adjusted GDP grew at a more moderate pace, 4.2%. Moreover, adjusted data show a..

Annual GDP growth kept its fast pace in Q2 - the economy increased by 3.7%. In quarterly terms, the economy grew by 0.9% (seasonally and calendar adjusted). The main drivers of growths in the second quarter were most likely consumption and invest..

What is the current state of trade tensions? What is the most likely future scenario? How vulnerable are Baltic economies and what is the likely impact? Last year was marked with rising global economic growth, improving confidence and expectat..

June has marked the fastest annual inflation rate this year. Annual inflation reached 2.8% in June. Annual growth of goods’ prices accelerated to 2.5% while service prices grew by 3.3%, a similar rate as before. In the months to come annual inflati..

Sweden leads in environmental protection but lags Nordic peers in other areas No Nordic country on track to meet environmental goals in Agenda 2030 All Nordic countries perform well on governance and on social inclusion Swedbank’s Sustainabili..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 182.0 in Riga and 152.0 in Tallinn, but decreased to 133.1 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.9 points in the first quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as very rapid wa..

Italian bond yields have come down, as the government has been approved by the president, but future policy remains very uncertain. Confrontation with the EU, reversing past reforms, expansion of fiscal deficit could again ignite fear and volatilit..

• Quarterly GDP growth at 1.6% (s.a.), annual growth at 4.2% (n.s.a) in the first quarter • Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, with only finance and transport sectors in red • Surge in construction and associated investment increase ..

Revised GDP figures show that the Lithuanian economy sustained the growth momentum and in annual terms increased by 3.7% in the first quarter of this year. Compared to the last quarter of 2017, GDP was 0.9% higher (in seasonally and working-day adj..

US steel and aluminium tariffs to worsen business sentiment, but small direct effect on growth in the Nordics and the BalticsThere are no winners in a trade war – tariffs will hurt the US as much as the EUThe direct effects on exports and imports a..

GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 3.6% yoy in 1Q2018 in real terms. The slowdown was expected, as close to 5% growth in 2017 was above the potential, by far. Nominal GDP growth decelerated to 8%, but it’s still very robust.Labour shortage has..

• The growth of the average gross wage accelerated to 7.7%, over the year, in the first quarter of 2018. • Families’ assessment of their financial situation is the highest on record. Rapid wage growth continued in the first quarter, around 8%..

The annual average gross wage growth was the fastest since the financial crisis in 2009 and stood at 9.5% in the first quarter of the year. The average net wage grew a bit slower - it increased by 8.6% due to the fact that additional income tax red..

Strong economic activity supported further labour market tightening at the beginning of this year. The number of unemployed decreased by about 11 thousand or 12% in the first quarter of this year compared to a year earlier. The fall in the unemploy..

• Higher economic activity lifted employment. • The number of the inactive declined substantially and the unemployment rate grew due to a labour market reform. According to Statistics Estonia, employment increased by 0.6% despite a strong bas..

The unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the first quarter of this year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Somewhat unexpectedly, the annual decline in the labour force eased to -0.8% and the decline in employment stalled (+0.1%). Despite rapid ec..

Annual inflation decreased to 2.0% in April with both prices of goods and services decelerating slightly on annual basis. Goods prices grew by 1.5% whereas service prices – by 3.3%. Global food prices have recently exhibited an upward trend owing..

In line with our expectations annual inflation continued to ease and stood at 2.3% in April. In annual terms, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Consumer prices were 0.6% higher compared to March - month..

The economic growth remained strong at the beginning of 2018. According to the first quarter flash estimates, the quarterly GDP growth was 1.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted data), while the annual growth accelerated to 4.3% compared to 4.2% (n..

In the first quarter of this year real GDP increased by 3.6%, in annual terms. In quarterly terms GDP grew by 0.8% (season and working-day adjusted). Strong growth is supported by solid retail growth, which accelerated to 6.7% in the 1st quarter. ..

Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth In a post-crisis period, the growth of Estonian labour productivity has been weakEstonian labour productivity is lower than majority of European Union member..

Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..

Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..

Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..

In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..

Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..

• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..

• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..

Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..

The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..

In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..

Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..

• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..

Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..

In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..

The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..

Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..

Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..

Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..