Baltic Archive

Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..

Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..

Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..

In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..

Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..

• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..

• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..

Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..

The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..

In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..

Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..

• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..

Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..

In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..

The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..

Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..

Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..

Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..

After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..

Annual inflation decelerated to 3.9% in December, while in monthly terms, consumer prices did not change. Annual growth in the prices of both, goods and services, eased towards the end of the year, to 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively. The dissipating..

Inflation picked up last year due to higher commodity prices and an increase in excise tax rates. Higher excise taxes added 0.9 percentage point to inflation in 2017. Among different products and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages cont..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 148.6 in Tallinn, 177.2 in Riga, and 124.8 in Vilnius.In Tallinn, affordability increased by 2.9 point in the third quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as apartment price gro..

• Baltics at the top of EU 28 price growth as economic growth accelerates • Rapid wage growth is a blessing and a curse – notable service price increases in Lithuania and Estonia • Winter is not coming to Latvia – service inflation to heat up

Why did cryptocurrencies appreciate so much this year? Initial Coin Offering (ICO) – cheaper IPO, or a letter from the Nigerian prince? The future is likely to be shaped by regulators, not aficionados

For the third month in a row inflation slowly recedes. In November, annual inflation rate was 2.7%. Despite retreating inflation, it is considerably higher than a year before. In the eleven months of this year, annual average inflation was 3.0% (fo..

Annual inflation has not changed from October to November and was at 4.4%. Prices grew 0.3% month over month in November. Meanwhile, average annual inflation reached 3.5%. Prices of goods in annual terms grew 4%, while services price growth eased..

• Growth at its cyclical peak • Productivity is the key to income convergence in the Baltics • Sustainable development – where do we stand? • Universal basic income – utopia or an urgent necessity? Growth at its cyclical peak The upswing in global ..

The real GDP growth was confirmed at 5.8% YoY (nsa) – the fastest growth since 2012! Most likely, it is the fastest pace of growth within this business cycle. The quarterly growth was at 1.5% (swda). The size of the economy is close to the pre-cris..

In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to the growth comes from t..

• Wage growth remains relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by around 5% and the real net wage by close to 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in..

• Annual gross monthly wage growth at 7.5% in Q3 as labour market tightens • Wages up in almost all sectors • Payroll tax cuts and minimum wage hike to give additional boost to wage growth next year After surging 8.7% in the second quarter, the ..

Annual wage growth slowed down to 7.2% in the third quarter. The waning effect of minimum monthly wage increases was the main reason for the slowdown. Wage growth was also dragged down by sluggish wage growth in the public sector. Its wages grew..

• The employment rate reached the highest level in 20 years. • The unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. Higher economic activity reflects in the developments in the labour market. In the third quarter, employment grew by 2.0%, the number of une..

The unemployment rate declined to 6.6% in the third quarter of this year and was 0.9 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained flat at 76.1% and thus did not alleviate the negative effect of the shrinking working age population on the labour..

In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in October, while annual inflation decelerated to 4.4%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3.3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods decelerated from 4,4% in September to 4% in October. ..

In the third quarter 2017, Latvian real GDP expanded 5.8% YoY nsa (up 1.5% QoQ swda). It is the fastest rate of growth since 2012, and in terms of volume GDP is about back to its pre-crisis level of 2017. Growth is broad across all sectors with con..

In the third quarter of this year GDP was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Seasonally and working day adjusted annual growth was 3.4%, while quarterly growth was a meagre 0.1%. This is markedly slower growth than during the first two quarters of this y..

In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 1% in September, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.8%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods accelerated from 3.8% in August to 4.4% in September. ..

The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 159.9 in Tallinn, 183.5 in Riga, and 129.4 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, affordability increased by 0.2 point in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as wage growth gained ..

As we expected a slowdown in inflation rate in July was temporary. In August annual price growth picked up again and was 3.1%. Food prices contributed the most to inflation growth in August. Among food prices, butter has been in the spotlight rec..

In monthly terms, consumer prices remained stable, however, annual inflation surged to 4.4% in August. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.6%. The effect of increased excise duties on alcohol is still observed, however the effect..

Hit most by great recession and rising house pricesUpcoming challenges: population ageing and tech revolution Negative effects on growth, public finances, and political stability In some respects, the current young Europeans can be thought of as..

In the second quarter the real GDP increased by 4% (not seasonally adjusted) year on year (YoY), recording the same growth rate as in the first quarter. The pick-up was seen in almost all sectors, except finance and insurance, and operations with r..

We expected continued robust GDP growth in the second quarter, but 5.7% yoy (1.3% qoq swda) was above expectations. As inflation has picked up, GDP nominal growth accelerated to 10.2% yoy. Statistics Estonia revised up GDP levels and growth rates o..

• Wage growth will remain relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Nevertheless, the gap between wage and productivity growth rates will narrow this year. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in the second q..

Nominal gross wages growth decelerated only slightly to 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 6% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth in private sector continued exceeding that of the public se..

GDP accelerated due to strong domestic and foreign demand Labour market hit its limit, but credit and investment cycle has way to go High-value-added export sector rising from low levels but needs more favourable environment

• The labour market remained tight. • The unemployment rate increased due to a reform. In the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate was 7.0%, the employment rate 66.9% and the labour force participation rate 72% in Estonia. The labour..

Tax reform package passed by the Parliament on July 27 involves changes to the labour, corporate, and excise taxes, as well as measures to combat shadow economy. Overall it is a move in the right direction, with more to be done. The reform will hav..

Annual consumer price growth reached 3.9% in July. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.3%. Higher prices of alcohol and tobacco (resulted by a hike in excise duties), dairy products, fuels and those of restaurant services contrib..

GDP growth in Latvia accelerated to 4.1% YoY in the second quarter (+4.0% YoY in the Q1) of 2017. Seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was even more impressive, i.e. 4.8%, as there were two working days less this year. Quarterly growth slightly ..

The Lithuanian government and the businesses can relax for now and enjoy their summer vacation – the Lithuanian economy continues growing at an accelerated pace. The Lithuanian GDP increased by 3.9% in Q2 of this year, compared to the same perio..

Job vacancy rate just above average, but annual growth amongst highest in the euro area Unemployment and vacancy rate curve suggests no crisis yet… …but job vacancy rates likely to increase further Annual growth of vacancy rate second highest in th..

Inflation accelerated to around 3% in the first half of the year in Estonia. The contribution of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased substantially in recent months. Food and non-alcoholic beverages amount to a quarter of household expenditur..

• Profitability remains a concern • Developments across subsectors vary • Challenges ahead Sales are on the rise, but profitability remains a concern Retail trade enterprises expect their sales to rise (by 6.1% in 2017, according to a re..

In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 7.3 points in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2016, as price growth was more than double that of wage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 5 points as a price pickup was comp..

Annual consumer price growth decelerated marginally to 3.4% in May. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 1.8%. Higher prices of alcohol (resulted by a hike in excise duties) and fuel, as well as those of restaurant services contr..

In the first quarter of this year the Lithuanian economy expanded by 3.9%, in annual terms, and by 1.4%, in quarterly terms (seasonally adjusted). This was the most rapid annual growth rate since mid-2014. This was also a relatively broad-based..

• Annual growth of the gross monthly wage at 7.2% in Q1 • Wages growing in almost all sectors The annual growth of the average gross monthly wage accelerated to 7.2% in the first quarter of this year after growing by 5% last year as a whole. Wage..

• 1Q2017 reports fastest GDP growth since 2012 • Broad cyclical upswing with almost all sectors reporting solid growth • Strong upside risks for GDP growth in 2017 to significantly exceed 3% Latvian GDP expanded by 4% YoY (up 1.6% QoQ) in 1Q 2..

Accelerated export growth and robust recovery of investments contributed to the GDP growthOn the output side, manufacturing, construction and domestic trade contributed the most We expect that GDP growth remains robust in 2017, but decelerates comp..

• The growth of average monthly gross wages slowed to 5.7% in the first quarter. • We expect gross wages to grow by around 6% this year. The growth of the average gross monthly wage decelerated from 7.6% in 2016 to 5.7%, over the year, in the f..

Nominal gross wages growth accelerated to 9.3%, while real net wages rose by 7.4% in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wages in private sector increased by 10.4%, which was the highest pace since 2008. Constr..

Labour market performed better than expected in the first quarter. The labour force participation rate, i.e., the proportion of persons of working-age who are either employed or unemployed, reached a record level of 70.2%, considering seasonal fact..

Estonia is still among largest net beneficiaries from FDI in the EU Increased inflow of FDI may boost fixed capital formation in the near future FDI by country becomes more and more diversified Can FDI boost enterprises’ investments into fixed asse..

The unemployment rate increased in the first quarter of this year to 8.0%, but was 0.3 percentage points lower than a year ago. As activity growth is close to its limit and was too low to compensate for shrinking working age population, labour forc..

Rapid wage growth, but not for everyoneIncome inequality has picked up – action requiredMain culprits - weak social safety nets and changing economy Rapid wage growth, but not for everyone Average wage growth has been rapid, and wage inequality..

The Lithuanian annual GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% in the first quarter of this year. This was the most rapid annual growth rate since mid-2014. Meanwhile, in quarterly terms, the seasonally adjusted GDP increased by 1.4%.

Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 3.1% in March, while average annual inflation picked up to 1.4%. Monthly inflation spike was caused by higher excise duties, which increased the prices of alcohol. Higher alcohol and fuel prices also cont..

The die is cast - the next move is the EU'sLimited effects of Brexit on the Baltic economies, so farBaltic interest - strong EU

In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 1.6 points in the fourth quarter of last year compared with the same period in 2015, as price growth outpacednwage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 25.5 points as prices and interest rates decreased. In..

• Average wages grew in all economic sectors. • We expect the growth of average gross wages to slow from 7.6% in 2016 to around 5% in 2017. The growth of average gross wage accelerated to 7.6% in 2016. Net average wages grew rapidly too, by..

According to revised GDP figures, the Lithuanian economy grew more rapidly in the fourth quarter of last year and in 2016 than previously estimated. The annual real GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% in the fourth quarter of last year (prev. 3%), wh..

According to the revised data of the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, GDP growth was +2%. As expected, investment has undergone the largest revision: even though the gross fixed capital formation declined by about 11% last year, it is much les..

In 2016, economic growth reached 1.6% in Estonia. Compared to 2015 it is a 0.2 percentage point increase, but nothing to be too proud of yet. Nominal growth of GDP accelerated from 2.5% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2016. In the last quarter of 2016 Estonian ..

• Average monthly nominal gross wage growth 5% in 2016 • In the Q4 the wage growth accelerated to 5.6% year-on-year • Household purchasing power growth 4.6% on average in 2016 The average monthly nominal gross wage growth slowed to 5% in 2016 co..

In 2016, non-financial sector profits decreased 10% in Estonia. Profits decreased third year in a row. Robust wage growth has contributed to the decrease in corporations’ profits The major share of the decrease in profits came from manufacturing, r..

Nominal gross wages increased by 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 7.6% in the fourth quarter of the last year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth continued to be driven by minimum wage hike and higher non-taxable income thre..

• The unemployment rate down to 9.3% in 4Q 2016 (vs. 9.8% a year earlier), on average 9.6% in 2016 (vs. 9.9% in 2015) • Employment down by 3 thsd or 0.3% last year• The unemployment rate expected to decrease more rapidly this year, to about 8.5% o..

• Labour market remained tight in 2016. • Employment is expected to marginally decline and the unemployment rate to grow in 2017. In 2016, the labour force participation rate, the share of the labour force in the working-age population, incr..

In January consumer prices increased by 0.3% compared with December and were 2.3% higher than a year ago. Most of the increase was due to more expensive food products and alcoholic beverages, but housing costs and most of the services were also mor..

Consumer prices increased by 0.1% in January compared to December last year and were 2.9% higher than in January 2016. This marks the highest annual monthly inflation rate since mid-2011. 1.9% higher food prices and 4.1% higher fuel prices contribu..

The unemployment rate increased marginally in the fourth quarter of last year - to 7.6%, but was 1.2 percentage points lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate for the whole last year averaged at 7.9%. The activity rate of 15-74 y..

• GDP growth in the Q4 accelerated to 2.1% (yoy, nsa), 1.6% for the whole year • The low point is past, growth will speed up close to 3% in 2017 • Structural reforms can ensure more rapid and sustainable growth According to the flash estimate of th..

The Lithuanian economy surprised on the upside in the fourth quarter of last year as GDP picked up by 3%, in annual terms. Quarterly seasonally adjusted growth accelerated from 0.4% in the third quarter to 1.3% in the fourth quarter. GDP increas..

Greater trade integration benefits overall welfareGlobal trade has slowed recently because of cyclical and structural reasonsProtectionism would hamper global economic growth – small and open economies, e.g. the Baltics, have most to loseNo quick a..

Consumer prices increased by 0.6% in December 2016 compared to November in the same year. Thus annual inflation in December accelerated to 2.2%. On a monthly basis, food prices grew by 1.3% and contributed the most to the increase. Rise in heati..

Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 1.7% in December. Higher prices of food products (dairy products, meat), alcoholic drinks (beer), fuels, tobacco products as well as restaurant services contributed the most to annual inflation. In mon..

Consumer price index increased by 0.1% in 2016. Higher excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and motor fuels contributed positively, while cheaper energy had the biggest negative impact on prices. The prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco were arou..

Contraction is temporary Residential sector is stronger, at least in Estonia and Lithuania Construction costs will rise, but export potential is there

In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 0.8 point in the third quarter this year compared with the same period in 2015, due to a slight increase in interest rates as price growth was equal to wage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 2.3 points a..

Statistics Estonia revised up to 1.3% its second estimate of the third quarter yoy GDP real growth in Estonia (flash estimate was 1.1%). Compared to the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.2% (swda). Economic growth has decelerated a bit this year - du..

Consumer prices increased by 0.2% in November compared to October this year and were 1.3% higher than in November 2015. This marks the third consecutive month of positive annual inflation and the second – with annual inflation of at least 1%. On ..

• Mind the risks to long-term growth • Exports hold the key to future growth in the Baltics • The services sector – stronger, smarter and more diversified Mind the risks to long-term growth Russia has exited recession and now all the Baltic Sea reg..

In 3Q 2016 real GDP grew by only 0.3% compared to the year ago (up 0.2% against the second quarter of 2016, according to seasonally and working day adjusted data). The key reason for this poor data is the decrease in investment activity, which is m..

Annual GDP growth decelerated to 1.7% in the third quarter of this year. Seasonally and working day adjusted quarterly growth decelerated from 0.4% in the second quarter to 0.1% in the third quarter. Household demand remained the main driver of gro..

Nominal gross wages increased by 7.9%, while real net wages rose by 7.4% in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period a year. Wage growth continued to be driven by minimum wage hike and higher non-taxable income threshold as o..

• Wage growth remained rapid in the 3rd quarter at 7%, over the year. • We expect average gross wage to slow to around 5% in 2017. In the 3rd quarter of 2016, the average monthly gross wage was 1,119 euros in Estonia, up by 7.1% over the year. ..

• Employment decreased by 1.2%, over the year, in the third quarter. • The unemployment rate jumped to 7.5% in the third quarter. • Employment is expected to marginally decline and the unemployment rate to grow in 2017. Changes in the third qua..

Economic growth in Estonia continued to be weak in the 3Q. According to the flash estimate, Estonian economy grew 1.1% yoy and 0.2% qoq (seasonally and calendar adjusted). The GDP has increased 1.1% yoy during the first three quarters. We shall pro..

Unemployment dropped to 7.5% in the third quarter this year – 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained high and labour force increased despite contracting working age population over a year. Annual employment growth slowed down from ..

Protectionism harmful for small open economiesFinancial market uncertainty likely to lastNordics & Baltics have strong fundamentals to weather storm

• 0.8% (nsa) yoy • 0.5% (swda) qoq According to the flash estimate, the year-on-year GDP growth rate was only 0.8% (nsa) in Q3, down from 2.1% seen in the Q1 and Q2. The economic growth was surprisingly weak and well below our forecast. Even though..

GDP growth disappointed again and according to the flash estimate economy picked up by 1.7% in the third quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Quarterly growth decelerated from 0.4% in the second quarter to 0.1% in the ..

• Estonia has been an attractive tourist destination • Growth despite fewer visitors from Russia and Finland • Challenges and opportunities in 2017 Estonia has been an attractive tourist destination Estonia has been rather successful..

Consumer prices decreased by 0.7% in August compared to July, but remained unchanged compared to August last year. After a small increase in annual inflation in July (0.1% yoy), consumer prices enter the twilight zone in August with 0% annual infla..

Annual consumer price growth accelerated to 0.8% in August, while average annual inflation picked up to 0.4%. Higher prices of lottery tickets, restaurant services, tobacco products and vegetables contributed most to annual inflation, while the ..

Statistics Estonia revised second-quarter annual GDP growth 0.2 percentage points up to 0.8%. Regular revision of last four years was also published and led to changes in real growth rates of previous years. 2012-2014 GDP growth was revised down 0...

In Tallinn, affordability rose by 8.3 points in the second quarter this year compared with the same period in 2015, due to a rapid rise in net wages and modest apartment price growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 19 points, mainly due to a 6.9% ..

• Q-o-q swda growth revised up to 0.6% in Q2 • Y-o-y nsa growth at 2.1% in Q2 • Swedbank GDP forecast revised down to 2.1% for 2016 The GDP grew 0.6% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, which is faster than indicated by the flas..

• Wage growth remained rapid in the second quarter at around 8%, over the year. • We expect average gross wage to rise by around 5% in 2017. In the 2nd quarter of 2016, the average monthly gross wage was 1,163 euros in Estonia, up by 7.6% over..

• Gross wage growth decelerated to 3.3% in Q2 2016 • Wage growth has become more volatile • Wage growth forecast at about 5-6% this year Average gross wage growth continued slowing down in the second quarter of 2016, partly owing to a much slowe..

In the second quarter of this year annual nominal growth of gross wages accelerated to 8.1%, while real net wages increased by 7.7%. Wage growth was driven by continued rise in the demand for qualified labour force and shrinking supply of such empl..

Some industries are winning, some are losingExport performance – a mixed pictureSustaining competitiveness is becoming challenging Some industries are winning, some are losing

The number of inactive decreased by 19,000 people, over the year, in the second quarter of this year. In addition to tight labour market, inactivity declined due to state reforms – an increase in the retirement age and the rearrangement of the soci..

Unemployment dropped to 8.0% in the second quarter this year – 1.4 pp lower than a year ago despite record high activity rate. Annual employment growth was at 2.3% and employment rate reached new record. The number of labour force increased by 0.8%..

According to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia, GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 0.6% in the second quarter of 2016 (in the first quarter, Estonian economy grew by 1.7%). Deceleration of the growth rate was expected. First quarter eco..

Compared to June, consumer prices shrunk by 0.3%, but were up 0.1% annually. This ended a six month long annual deflation spell in consumer prices. On monthly basis, among the key drivers were the Value Added Tax raise for housing services that pus..

The Latvian economy accelerated slightly in the second quarter this year, after a temporary soft patch. According to the flash estimate, GDP grew by 0.4% quarterly (swda). Growth remained at quite modest 2.1% (nsa) on an annual comparison. Growth..

According to the flash estimate, annual GDP growth slowed down to 1.8% in the second quarter of this year and was below our expectations. Previous quarter growth was revised up from 2.3% to 2.4%. Quarterly growth decelerated from 0.9% in the first ..

In June consumer prices increased by 0.1% compared with May and were 0.7% higher than a year ago. Average annual inflation was at 0.1% and was positive for the first time since 2014. In a month prices of goods decreased by 0.2%, while prices ..

The surge in supply has almost halted price growthConstruction sector investments lowReal estate prices relative to income stay below 12-year average Price – it is all about demand and supply In the first quarter of 2016, price growth of apartmen..

• Cheaper energy and food behind the decline in prices • Price growth is expected to be flat in 2016 In June 2016, consumer prices decreased by 0.4%, year on year, in Estonia. Goods were 0.6% and services 0.1% cheaper compared to one year ag..

With 52% of UK voting to leave over 48% wishing to stay in, history is being made as we speak, and the United Kingdom will be the first country to leave the EU since its formation. As we expected, the Brexit decision brought about the drop in ..

Lithuania is still a low- to medium – value-added economyHigher spending on R&D is no guarantee for successLow FDI, universities, and education are the most to blame Not a high-tech country… Despite some positive recent examples, the country s..

• In Tallinn, affordability rose by 10.1 points in the first quarter this year compared with the same period in 2015 due to an 8.5% rise in net wages and almost stable apartment prices. • In Riga, the HAI increased by 15.1 points, due to a 4.6% dro..

Statistics Estonia did not revise the GDP growth of 1Q2016 with its second estimate: it remained 1.7% yoy and flat qoq (swda) in real terms. Despite the fall in prices, GDP growth reached to 3% in nominal terms (2.5% in 2015). Despite the accelerat..

• Estonia’s workforce is shrinking and ageing rapidly • Employment’s contribution to growth largely exhausted • Shrinking and ageing population will pressure the labour market and public finance Estonia’s workforce is shrinking and ageing ..

• Setback in investments – probably temporary • Getting closer to bottlenecks in the labour market… but not there yet • Households are doing better, but are we on the right track for it to last long enough? Setback in investments – probably ..

The Latvian economy continues to grow, although slower+0.1% QoQ swda, 2.1% YoY nsa in 1Q 20163% growth forecast for 2016, but it can be a bit slowerIn line with our expectations revised GDP data were a bit better than shown by the flash estimate. N..

Gross wage growth decelerated to 5.3% in 1Q 2016Wage growth forecast at about 6% this yearConsumption remain rather cautiousAs expected, gross wage growth decelerated in the beginning of 2016, partly owing to a much slower increase in minimum wage ..

• Wage growth accelerated further in the first quarter. • A surge in purchasing power supports consumption but hurts enterprises’ profitability. In the 1st quarter of 2016, the average monthly gross wage was 1,091 euros in Estonia, up by 8.1%..

In the first quarter of this year annual nominal growth of gross wages accelerated to 6.9%, while real net wages increased by 6.3%. Wage growth was driven by continued rise in the demand for qualified labour force and shrinking supply of such emplo..

No minimum threshold for voter participation Brexit supporters more determined to vote Volatile financial markets likely this summer – Bremain would only give temporary relief “I think a lot of people might think: ‘Well, in the end, it’s the rat..

The unemployment rate up to 10.3% in 1Q 2016 (10.2% a year ago)Employment up by 0.6% annuallyThe unemployment rate to decline to 9.2% this year on averageWith slower economic growth in Latvia a heatup of the labour market is delayed as well. Latvia..

Finland’s GDP growth is expected to recover in 2016-2017. Worsening situation on the labour market increases burden on public finances and reduces potential output growth. Government’s austerity programme restrains economic growth in the short term..

• In Q1 2016, employment increased due to a higher number of part-time workers. • Unemployment rate was slightly smaller than one year ago. • We still expect unemployment rate to grow and employment to decline a bit in 2016. First quarter’s ..

Unemployment dropped to 8.3% in the first quarter this year –1.7 pp lower than a year ago despite record high activity rate. Annual employment growth accelerated to 2.5% and employment rate reached all time high. The number of labour force increase..

Population of Lithuania is ageing rapidly Challenges to public finance and economy, but also new business opportunitiesHigher employment rates and immigration would yield positive results, but innovation is crucial Population of Lithuania is agein..

According to the flash estimate of Statistics Estonia, GDP growth in Estonia accelerated to 1.7% yoy in 1Q 2016, while compared to the previous quarter (seasonally and working day adjusted) remained flat. On the supply side, continued robust growth..

In April consumer prices increased by 0.4%, mostly owing to seasonal increase in the prices of clothing and footwear (by 6.2%) and more expensive fuel (3.2%). Prices were still by 0.8% lower than a year ago, and currently it seems that the deflat..

In April consumer prices increased by 0.5% compared with March and were 1% higher than a year ago. Average annual deflation declined to 0.1%.

We expect the UK to stay in the EU; possibility of Brexit at 40% Financial market stress, impediments to trade, and political instability in case of Brexit… … imply risen monetary policy uncertainty and slower growth in the Baltics and the euro ..

Despite the gradual drop since 2014, investments’ share in Estonian GDP still the largest in euro areaMore investments needed in manufacturing sectorWood sector makes the largest positive contribution to manufacturing sector investment growth. In..

Technically, the Latvian economy is now in recession…... but it feels only in few industriesWe still forecast 3% growth for 2016 overallAccording to the flash estimate the Latvian economy decreased by 0.1% in quarterly terms (swda) in the first qua..

According to the flash estimate, annual GDP growth increased to 2.2% in the first quarter of this year, in line with our expectations. Previous quarter growth was revised up from 1.9% to 2%. Growth was mainly driven by household consumption as ..

• BoJ’s monetary policy stance unchanged for now • Further easing is expected this summer • BoJ will be forced to do more to avoid the deflation trap BoJ surprised the markets again Despite lowering its inflation and GDP forecasts again t..

Swedish service sector particularly vulnerable to a Brexit Loss of main ally would marginalize Swedish influence in the EU Weaker SEK and temporary stress in financial markets