Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Macro Focus
October 21, 2020
Russia: A solid recovery, but the risks remain on the downside
In this crisis, the Russian economy had to confront two shocks at the same time – the coronavirus outbreak and the steep decline in oil prices caused by the pandemic.The slump in oil prices and oil production cuts have led to a decline in Russia’s ..
Macro Focus
October 19, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Heavy restrictions across large swathes of Europe
The epidemicRecorded cases in Europe have continued to rise very fast. Deaths are also up in several countries. France and the UK lead in the total number of cases. Czech Republic, the Netherlands, and Belgium have measured the most daily cases per..
Macro Focus
October 19, 2020
US Election 2020: Prepare for a change in the White House
Our base case is a Joe Biden victory and a Democratic clean sweep… …but much can still happen, and absentee voting will increase a lot.Likelihood of major political turbulence is low, but would affect financial markets most.The US election is comin..
Macro Focus
October 12, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Cases in Europe continue to surge
The epidemicThe seven-day average number of new global cases has nudged up slightly during last week. India still accounts for the most cases, but the country’s trend continues to move downward.New cases continue to climb in Russia and in the US.Th..
Macro Focus
October 9, 2020
Swedbank's card data signalling a downward sentiment
Card spending and cash withdrawal in the Baltics dropped as state of emergency was announced, but recovered markedly in the second half of Q2. Q3 has largely not seen further improvements – transactions have remained fairly stable. Card spending an..
Flash comment: Estonia
October 7, 2020
Deflation continued in September
• Deflation amounted to 1.1% in Estonia in September, over the year. • We expect prices to decline by 0.4% in 2020. In September, the fall in consumer prices deepened from 0.9% in August to 1.1% in September. Food prices increased less than befor..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 5, 2020
Services PMI dropped to 54.7 in September: The recovery slowed
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell by 2.6 points in September to 54.7 after an upward revision to 57.3 in August. This is the first time since April that the index dropped, but it remains in the grow..
Macro Focus
October 5, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Mixed information on Trump’s diagnosis
The epidemicCoronavirus cases across the globe have passed 35 million. The five countries with the highest recorded infections are the US, India, Brazil, Russia, and Colombia.The decrease in new cases continues in India, where testing has also decr..
PMI Sweden
October 1, 2020
PMI rose to 55.3 in September: Robust recovery
• The PMI increased for the fifth consecutive month and registered 55.3 in September from an upward revision of 53.8 in August. The recovery in manufacturing industry is continuing and the index is now, for the first time since autumn 2018, above t..
Macro Focus
September 29, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Restrictions in Europe remain targeted
The epidemicGlobal cases have continued to rise. India’s trend has turned downwards, however.The rebound in US cases has continued, with a concerning trend in many states.Cases have continued up in Europe, driven by Spain, France, and the UK. Per c..
Macro Focus
September 23, 2020
European PMIs – Diverging fortunes of Services and Manufacturing
Manufacturing in Germany seems to finally be making solid gains after a long period of stagnation. Of course, it is recovering from a very low level but nonetheless it is a welcome sign for many European trade partners that supply the German ind..
Macro Focus
September 21, 2020
Finland: Only small corona effects on the housing market so far
Surprisingly small effects from the corona outbreak on construction activity in Finland.Stimulating monetary policy continues to boost supply through cheap funding costs for constructors and demand both through the cheap funding channel and lack of..
Macro Focus
September 21, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: The rapid increase in daily cases continues in Denmark
The epidemicGlobal recorded cases per day have increased. Total global cases passed 30 million last week.Recorded cases in India remain high, but the increase in daily cases may have peaked. There is a small uptick in daily cases also in the US.Cas..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 17, 2020
Housing Affordability Index tells a different story this time
During the second quarter of 2020, the Baltic economies, like the rest of the world, were hit by the corona crisis. In the housing markets of the Baltic capitals, it was the secondary market that bore the brunt of pandemic damage. There was a drop ..
Macro Focus
September 14, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Astra Zeneca resumes vaccine trial
The epidemicGlobal cases have risen slightly over the week. India continues to account for the most recorded cases. Data from Latin America, the Middle East, and North Africa show some signs of improvement.Cases, deaths, and hospitalisations still ..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 8, 2020
Deflation is back
Prices of goods are down by 1% Prices of services rose by 1.6% While the price growth of services remained stable, the price growth of goods back to the negative territory due to cheaper fuel.
Macro Focus
September 7, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Positive development continues in Sweden
The epidemicGlobally, daily cases have increased slightly. More than half of the daily increase globally comes from India, Brazil, and the US.In the US, daily cases have moved sideways but have still risen in 22 states. There are large outbreaks in..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 1, 2020
Latvia: Wages up in Q2 despite pandemic
Wage growth slowed, but remained in positive territory, at 3.9% y/y in Q2Most sectors saw slowdown, while only a few recorded a declineWages picked up at a similar annual pace in both public and private sector Despite a substantial slump in economi..
PMI Sweden
September 1, 2020
PMI rose to 53.4 in August: Manufacturing shifts up a gear
• The PMI registered 53.4 in August from an upward revision of 51.4 in July. This is the second consecutive month that the PMI is in the growth zone and it is now at the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2018. While last spring’s PMI declin..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 31, 2020
Latvia: plummeting consumption drags down GDP
GDP down by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2020, and by 5.4% in the first half of 2020Growth during crisis dragged down chiefly by private consumption Value added fell the most in catering and accommodation, arts and recreation and transport The second reading of ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 31, 2020
A dip rather than collapse
Quarterly rate revised down to -5.5%Economy contracted only 4.2% y/yExternal sector cushioned the impact As more data rolls out the extent of economic damage caused by the pandemic is revealed. Second quarter performance of Lithuanian econom..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2020
Flash comment: Estonia - Economy dropped less than expected in Q2
Estonian economy dropped less than expected in Q2In the second quarter of 2020, Estonian economy dropped by 6.9% y/y in real terms and 8.4% in nominal terms. Seasonally and working day adjusted GDP dropped by 5.6% q/q. The result exceeded our expec..
Macro Focus
August 31, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: First reinfections found in Hong Kong and Europe
The epidemicGlobal cases moved sideways. In the US, new cases continued to decline but have flattened out slightly over the weekend. The trend continued up in India and Europe, among others.European cases were driven by Spain and France. Cases in t..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 27, 2020
Wage growth decelared
• The average gross wage increased by only 1.0%, over the year, in the second quarter. • Swedbank expects wages to grow by 2.2% this year. Less work means lower pay Gross wage growth decelerated from 4.8% in the first quarter to 1.0% in the seco..
Macro Focus
August 27, 2020
No green recovery so far
Green investments account only for a tiny share of global stimulus announced so far. Announced green stimulus in our home markets ranges from around 2 % of GDP in Denmark to 0.02 % in Sweden, where more is expected. Equally important to avoid suppo..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 25, 2020
Better and better, but still on thin ice
Growth is picking up after a terrible second quarter. But nothing is back to normal. Uncertainty will fade only after the threat from the pandemic is removed. Supportive fiscal and monetary policy is needed, but this comes with negative side-effect..
Macro Focus
August 24, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: European recovery is slowing down
The epidemicGlobally, daily cases have decreased slightly. However, many countries have also reached the upper limit of their testing capacity.Cases are still rising in India, while South Korea reported its highest daily rise in cases since March o..
Macro Focus
August 24, 2020
No big drama in Lithuanian trade. Why so?
On the back of strong momentum, the coronavirus crisis did not significantly affect Lithuanian exports, which dropped by 2.4% (excluding mineral products) during the first six months of 2020. Food and fertiliser production, which constitute a big s..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 17, 2020
Latvia: Labour market worsens less than expected in Q2
Unemployment rate up to 8.6% in Q2, less than expectedEmployment down by 1.5% y/yWeakest point in the labour market likely behind us Despite a record quarterly drop in economic activity, the worsening in the labour market in Q2 was smaller than we ..
Macro Focus
August 17, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Travel curbs ramped up again in Europe
The epidemic Globally recorded cases have stabilized, owing to a decline in in the US and a flattening out in Brazil. Deaths per day have also declined slightly in the US. Case growth has slowed in South Africa over the past weeks.Cases have contin..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 14, 2020
Situation in the labour market has deteriorated in Estonia
• The unemployment rate increased moderately in the second quarter but has been stable since then.• We expect the unemployment rate to reach around 8% this year and then decrease again next year. According to Statistics Estonia, employment fell ..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 10, 2020
Inflation is back
In July, price change of goods came out of negative territory that led to 0.5% annual inflation in Latvia. Prices of goods did not change. Prices of services rose by 1.6%.In 2020 inflation could remain low – in 7 months prices rose by only 0.7%.
Macro Focus
August 10, 2020
China: A solid but uneven recovery while big risks remain
Recovery led by industry and exportsGDP growth surprised on the upside in Q2, supported by net exports and inventories. Exports have been boosted by medical products and electronics, as China produces many of the goods necessary in a pandemic. Tota..
Macro Focus
August 10, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: The number of new cases is increasing across the Nordics and Baltics
The epidemicGlobally, coronavirus cases are nearing 20 million.Increase in recorded cases continues across Europe. Spain still accounts for a large share of new infections, but the curve may have started to bend. Stable but slow case growth continu..
Macro Focus
August 3, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Europe fears second coronavirus wave
The epidemicGlobal cases have passed 18 million. In Europe, new cases continue to rise. Spain accounts for a large fraction of new cases in Europe. But cases are rising also in France, Belgium, and Germany. When looking at new cases per million, th..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 31, 2020
Latvia: Bad, but in line with expectations
GDP down in Q2 2020 by 9.8% YoY and 7.5% over the previous quarterRecovery was rapid right after the relaxation of measures, but expected to lose strength as global growth disappointsGDP in Q2 declined in line with forecasts, following a sharper-th..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 30, 2020
GDP drops only 3.8% in Q2
It seems as if someone forgot to inform Lithuanian economy that economic crisis of a century is ravaging the global economy. Lithuanian Real GDP dropped barely 3.8% in annual terms, beating all estimates by a wide margin. It was evident from..
Macro Focus
July 27, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Continued signs of improvement in Sweden
The epidemicGlobal daily cases have continued to rise. India’s case growth has remained fast and cases in Brazil have picked up again. Fast growth also in Mexico, Columbia, and other parts of Latin America. South African cases also remain high but ..
Macro Focus
July 20, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: US case growth still a major concern
The epidemicGlobally recorded daily cases have continued to trend up at a steady pace. The highest number of cases have been recorded in the US, India, Brazil, and other parts of Latin America.In the US, both the total daily confirmed cases and dea..
Macro Focus
July 16, 2020
ECB comment: Summer break from additional measures
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf) A very uneventful ECB meeting with no new decisions, as expectedFlexibility in PEPP has been used during summer with slightly smaller purchases reflecting less worry about fragmentation in markets Today´s E..
Macro Focus
July 13, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: A record increase in global coronavirus cases
The epidemicThe spread of the coronavirus pandemic is “still accelerating”, according to the WHO, which reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases on Sunday.A surge in cases continues in India. In South Africa, the number of cases has d..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 8, 2020
In June, prices down by 0.7%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.3% The spread of coronavirus in Latvia is well controlled and the restrictions introduced in March were eased quite quickly. Therefore, the situation with price changes is starting to stabil..
Macro Focus
July 6, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Global daily cases continue to climb
The epidemicGlobal daily cases continue to climb, and total cases near 11.5 million. Currently, infections continue to rise by around 1 million per week.New cases remain overall steady in Europe, but the rise in new cases continues in South Africa,..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 49.2 in June: Big jump after the spring swoon
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) registered 49.2 in June after an upward revision to 41.6 in May. Since bottoming out in April, the index has risen 9.5 points, indicating that the slump in the service s..
PMI Sweden
July 1, 2020
PMI rose to 47.3 in June – rebound after the spring swoon
• The PMI rose in June by 7.3 points to 47.3 from an upward revision of 40.0 in May. This means that a large share of the index’s spring decline has been recouped, indicating that the trough in manufacturing activity has been passed. The big increa..
Macro Focus
June 29, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: The epidemic continues to escalate in the US
The epidemicThe pandemic continues to accelerate on a global scale. On Sunday, the total number of people to test positive for Covid-19 worldwide passed 10 million.The epidemic continues to escalate in the US. More testing can´t explain the total i..
Macro Focus
June 23, 2020
Euro area PMIs. A very deep V in growth rates
Composite PMI bounce back to bounce back to 47.5Manufacturing remains more subdued Services improve markedly as countries re-open Euro area had not quite returned to the growth territory in June, but the survey results give optimism that dama..
Macro Focus
June 23, 2020
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed. Will EU’s recovery fund help in reaching targets?
Environmental protection area remains pivotal in speeding up progress – no country is on track to meet environmental goals in UN 2030 Agenda. All Nordic countries perform well on governance and institutions, whereas the Baltics have a lot of catchi..
Macro Focus
June 22, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Europe starts to reopen borders
The epidemic § According to the head of WHO, the pandemic is accelerating on a global scale. On Sunday, the WHO reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases.
Macro Focus
June 18, 2020
Rail Baltica lifts construction volumes
The construction of the new railway will have a substantial impact on the Baltic economies,boosting demand for construction materials and services, even when many goods and services are imported. The new fast railway line from Estonia’s capital to ..
Macro Focus
June 18, 2020
Fixing the EU, again
Finally, there is a will to create a fiscal capacity at EU levelThe ECB will remain the most important EU institutionProblematic setup for countries like Sweden, that fall in between if integration deepens Yet again Europe is in crisis manag..
Macro Focus
June 15, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Europe starts to reopen borders
Starting from today, this comment will be published only on Mondays. The epidemicGlobally, new cases still seem to have an upward trend.Cases in Europe are slowly declining and remain stable in Russia. The overall trend of new cases is still quite ..
Macro Focus
June 12, 2020
Swedbank’s card data see Baltic consumers nearing pre-crisis spending levels
Since week12 – the start of the emergency situation in all the Baltics – card transactions in the Baltics have fallen by 15%. Card spending has fallen by 8% and cash withdrawal by 22% YoY, with the sharpest fall in Estonia, and a less pronounced dr..
Macro Focus
June 12, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Finland allows free travel to all Nordics, except Sweden
The epidemicGlobally recorded cases per week have continued to increase, driven by developing countries.Europe, US, and Russia generally continue to show stability, and increased testing may cover actual improvements in underlying trends in many pl..
Macro Focus
June 11, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Concern mounts over second wave in the US
The epidemicCase growth rates remain high in India and Brazil. Case growth remains stubbornly fast in large parts of Latin America, which the WHO highlighted as a deep concern.Europe’s growth rate has fallen below 0.5% and data continues to look br..
Macro Focus
June 10, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden’s hospital data continues to signal stability
The epidemicGlobal cases have continued to trend up. Cases remain stable in the US and slowly declining in Europe. Russia has seen a small decline in trend.South Asia and Latin America continue to drive cases. Infections continue to grow fast in So..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 10, 2020
Will high affordability save the market?
At the start of 2020, the housing market in the Baltics was still unfazed by the pandemic. Overall housing affordability was high in all the capitals. However, housing affordability in Tallinn and Vilnius decreased in the first quarter, compared wi..
Macro Focus
June 9, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Continued fast case growth in South Asia
The epidemicNew cases remain stable in Russia and the US and continued to decline slightly in the EU.Fast case growth has continued in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Hospitals in Pakistan have warned that they are running out of beds and respirat..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 8, 2020
Deflation is here: Prices down by 0.6%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.8% Despite the signs of weakness prices of services maintained the positive rate of change. But prices of goods plunged deeper in the negative area. Prices of transport decreased significant..
Macro Focus
June 8, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Swedish data remains concerning but experts point at testing
The epidemicNew cases in Europe declined slightly over the weekend, with fewer cases in the UK and France, among others. Poland reported an acceleration in case growth, however.While cases in the US have remained stable, US deaths have continued to..
Macro Focus
June 5, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden to start large scale testing and free domestic travel
The epidemicStability continued in the US, Europe, and Russia.Cases continued to rise in Brazil and the rest of the world, mostly Latin America and South Asia, India is now about in par with Russia in their number of daily recorded cases.The WHO’s ..
Macro Focus
June 4, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Disappointing results from Chinese vaccine trial
The epidemicDaily cases continue to be led by fast growth in many countries in Latin America, South Asia and the Middle East. Cases trend in Europe declined slightly, driven by fewer cases in France and the UK. Germany’s reproduction rate has again..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 40.9 in May: Economic decline eased slightly
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) turned slightly higher in May to 40.9 from 39.0 in April after a big decline in March and April. Although the worst is probably now over for the Services PMI, there aren..
Macro Focus
June 3, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden’s deaths per capita remain high
The epidemicDaily cases remained stable in Europe. The increase in cases in France was related to a methodology change and daily cases there have now stabilised.Both new cases and deaths have stabilised in the US, showing slow progress, although a ..
Macro Focus
June 2, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Concerning signs in European and Swedish data
The epidemicData shows continued stability in Russia and the US. Brazil still accounted for the most cases.Data from Europe, where the declining trend in daily cases has ceased, rises some concerns: recorded cases have continued to trend up in Fran..
PMI Sweden
June 1, 2020
PMI rose to 39.2 in May – Economic slowdown eases
• The PMI rose to 39.2 in May from 36.4 in April after having fallen by a total of 16.5 points in March and April. This means that the downturn in Swedish manufacturing industry has slowed. While it is still too early to say whether a bottom has be..
Macro Focus
June 1, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Denmark and Norway open travel, leaving out Sweden
The epidemicDaily cases in Brazil passed the US. Cases in Europe edged up with an increase in France.Stability in Russia and the US while cases in the rest of the world show exponential growth.The number of patients in intensive care in the largest..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 29, 2020
Latvia: private consumption dragged down Q1 GDP
GDP down in Q1 2020 by 1.5% YoY, and 2.9% QoQ Growth dragged down by private consumption Value added fell the most in transport as well as arts and recreationThe second reading of GDP figures was little changed from the flash estimate.Swedbank expe..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2020
The steep decline in taxes contracted Estonian GDP in the first quarter
In Estonia, GDP contracted 0.7% yoy (non-adjusted) and 3.7% qoq (seasonally and working day adjusted) in 1QThe steep fall in VAT and excise taxes contributed negatively, while the gross value added increased 2% yoy. There were more economic activit..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 28, 2020
Lavia: Labour market gets first coronavirus’ chills in Q1
Labour market weakened, unemployment rate up to 7.4% in Q1Wage growth moderated to 6.6% y/y in Q1, led by the private sectorWeaker developments expected in Q2Although the virus containment measures were in force for just a couple of weeks, labour m..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 27, 2020
Previously rapid wage growth stalls in Estonia this year
• Wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in Q1. • Swedbank expects wages to grow by only 0.5% this year. Wage growth decelerated in the first quarter Gross wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in the first quarter. The averag..
Nordic-Baltic Business Report
May 26, 2020
Well prepared to take on the challenge
The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness.Strong economic fundamentals and a timely reaction to the health crisis ensure that the countries are in an advantageous po..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2020
The unemployment rate should peak this autumn
• Labour market figures were still strong before the crisis. • Data has deteriorated rapidly since March. Corona crisis did not affect Q1 data Q1 labour market survey was carried out between January and March, i.e. before the crisis hit. Therefo..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
May 13, 2020
In the midst of the Corona crisis – the bottom has likely been reached
The development of the coronavirus remains a key factor shaping the economy, although focus has shifted somewhat towards exit strategies and post-pandemic stimulus. Compared to our previous forecast almost two months ago, the lockdowns have becom..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 12, 2020
Annual inflation 0%
Prices of goods fell by 0.8% Prices of services rose by 2.1% Fuel prices and prices of housing related services pulled inflation down. Fuel prices followed global oil prices and were down by 20%. Housing related services were cheaper due to previou..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 6, 2020
Services PMI fell to 39.0 in April: Another big drop in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell to 39.0 in April from a downward revision of 46.1 in March, which is the lowest level since the recession year 2009. Taken together, the index fell by just over 17 ..
PMI Sweden
May 4, 2020
PMI fell to 36.7 in April – Economic downturn deepens
• The PMI fell 5.9 points to 36.7 in April from a downward revision of 42.6 in March, which is the lowest level since the recession year 2009. This means that Swedish manufacturing industry is continuing to rapidly contract in the wake of the coron..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 30, 2020
Latvia: the worst is yet to come
GDP in Q1 declined by 1.4% following an already unimpressive performance at the end of 2019. The drop versus the previous quarter was a substantial 2.9%.
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2020
Limited damage so far
Lithuanian GDP contracted -0.2 % in quarterly terms Overall, despite everything, economy expanded 2.6 % y/y Second quarter will bear the brunt of the damage The global pandemic has affected Lithuanian growth and derailed a trend of strong expans..
Macro Focus
April 29, 2020
Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller
Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures Special theme: Temporary layoffs mitigate the effect on the labour markets
Macro Focus
April 27, 2020
ECB preview: “We are here to reduce the spreads”
The ECB needs to tell markets there is no limit to the asset purchasesPossible that ECB announces it can buy recently downgraded junk bonds Recent macroeconomic data, notably PMIs, has illustrated an unprecedented shock felt by manufacturing and s..
Macro Focus
April 24, 2020
Consumer Spending Observer in the Baltics
Swedbank’s card data shows a sharp decline in spending and cash withdrawals. Data until April 19 shows a major contraction in card transactions since the announcement of emergency situations in the Baltics. Week 11, when the COVID-19 crisis was a..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 8, 2020
Inflation 1.4% is twice less than a year before
Annual inflation 1.4% in March.Prices of services grew faster than prices of goods.Weaker price growth in March 2020 was a result of broad range of obstacles, e.g., falling price of Brent oil that resulted in lower price of fuel, reduced tariffs of..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 7, 2020
Weaker economic activity lowers inflation
• Annual inflation reached 0.9% in March in Estonia. • In 2020, we expect inflation to amount to 0.8%, or even 0.4%, if we include lower excise taxes proposed by the government. Compared to February, consumer prices declined by 0.7%. Annual inf..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 3, 2020
Services PMI fell to 46.9 in March: Rapid drop in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell to 46.9 in March from 56.4 in February. This is the largest monthly decline in the index’s 15-year history, and it is now at the lowest level since 2012. The decrea..
Macro Focus
April 3, 2020
On the way out of the virus
Economic recovery can only really start once we get the virus under control. There is a wide range of different avenues being explored in an attempt to fight the pandemic – developing a vaccine, finding the drugs, devising new antigen and antibody ..
PMI Sweden
April 1, 2020
PMI fell to 43.2 in March – record-fast slowdown in industry
• The PMI fell in March by 9.5 points to 43.2 from a downward revision of 52.7 in February. This is the biggest monthly decrease in the PMI’s history of over 25 years and is a clear sign that the coronavirus’s effects on Swedish industry are being ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 25, 2020
Economies are in freefall – unprecedented economic measures are likely
The spread of the coronavirus is paralysing the world’s economies and many countries are heading for a recession. Governments announce new support packages daily, while central banks do whatever it takes to calm financial markets. The economic-poli..
Macro Focus
March 24, 2020
Euro area short comment: Germany PMIs – down the Mariana trench
Services dive 18 points Manufacturing drops only 2.3 points The longer lockdowns in Europe continue the harder it will be to bounce back The PMI flash estimate followed yesterdays’ European consumer confidence and dived hard. PMI survey result..
Macro Focus
March 19, 2020
ECB launched massive 750 bn € crisis purchase program
This is a good start and will reduce sovereign spreads, but is still not enough • ECB more flexible with capital key • In 2020 purchases might exceed I trillion € ECB tonight launched a massive addition to its current QE purchases underlining th..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 17, 2020
Housing remains and is likely to stay affordable
In the final quarter of 2019, all three Baltic capitals saw somewhat different trends. In Tallinn, housing affordability fell as the average price of apartments accelerated and net wage growth weakened due to the previous year’s tax reform. Housing..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 9, 2020
Annual inflation was 2.3%
Consumer price growth remained moderate in February. Annual inflation was 2.3%, while monthly inflation was 0.1%. Price changes were defined by global obstacles. In February, food prices experienced sharp increase and were driving annual inflation ..
Macro Focus
March 9, 2020
Too much money for too little demand in euro area?
The increased current account surplus and the widening gap between savings and investments have contributed to the fall in interest rates in the euro area.The government sector has had the largest impact on the increased gap, as the austerity polic..
Macro Focus
March 6, 2020
Corona hits the Nordics and Baltics
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)Limited effects on growth and labour markets so far but with a continued and broadened spread of the virus the economic consequences will be large. GDP growth expected to be 0.4-0.8 percentage points lower in..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 4, 2020
Services PMI rose to 56.7 in February: Growth but dark clouds threaten
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) increased in February to 56.7 from an upward revision of 53.2. This is the highest reading since autumn 2018 and indicates increased activity in the service sector. Howe..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 3, 2020
Wage growth should ease in 2020
Wage growth remained relatively rapid and broad-based in the fourth quarter. Statistics Estonia’s wage data showed a slowdown in the annual growth rate of the full-time-equivalent average gross wage (+6.4%, over the year) in Q4 2019, mostly due to ..
PMI Sweden
March 2, 2020
PMI rose to 53.2 in February – recovery despite Corona jitters
• The PMI rose in February to 53.2 from an upward revision of 52.0 in January. This is the highest level in 15 months and was mainly helped by longer delivery times. While the impact of the coronavirus on Swedish industry is not yet evident in the ..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2020
Annual GDP growth was 2.2% in 2019
Against the backdrop of softening global economy and high uncertainty, as well as sector specific factors, Latvian economic growth slowed considerably in 2019 – from 4.3% in 2018 to an estimated 2.2% last year. This was broadly in line with our for..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2020
Last year’s economic growth surprised on the upside
Last year's economic growth surprised on the upsideIn 2019, Estonian GDP growth was 4.3% y/y in real terms and 7.7% y/y in nominal terms. Although, the growth slowed from previous year, it was still strong and exceeded our expectations – our foreca..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2020
Solid wage gains despite global weakness
Gross wages grew 8.8% last year Public sector wage growth was markedly stronger Women’s wages grow 1.5pp faster Lithuanian labour market seems unfazed by any global worries. Despite weak growth in EMU earnings growth in Lithuania maintained soli..
Please note that: