Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Macro Focus
April 8, 2021
Coronavirus briefing: The EMA said blood clots should be listed as a rare side effect of the Astra Zeneca jab
The epidemicIn the EU, the infection curve is moving downwards, but Ester effects may still affect the figures.In the UK, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have all continued to fall. So far, at least 47% of the population has had at least one sh..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 8, 2021
Inflation has accelerated in Estonia
• In March, in Estonia, consumer prices rose by 1.1%, over the year. • Higher prices of motor fuels, food, and electricity contributed. • Swedbank expects inflation to reach 1.5% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2022. Annual inflation has accelerated from 0..
Macro Focus
April 8, 2021
Swedish economy – resilient so far
Data until February suggest a more than decent start of the year. In February, following an improvement in January, household consumption rose by an additional 2% over the month. Spending on housing contributed the most, while spending on restauran..
Macro Focus
April 6, 2021
Coronavirus briefing: China’s vaccinations pick up pace
The epidemicReported cases in the EU have declined, but the data must be interpreted with caution as Easter holiday effects may affect the figures. In the UK, both daily cases and deaths have declined further.In the US, daily cases reported over th..
Macro Focus
April 1, 2021
Coronavirus briefing: France enters its third lockdown
The epidemicEU and UK cases have declined slightly in recent days, but this could be affected by reporting issues. Cases have risen in Poland, the Netherlands, Austria, and Germany.In the US, cases are rising again and the decline in deaths has sta..
Macro Focus
April 1, 2021
2020: The year we stayed home
Tourism below 2012 levels in Baltics, yet fast route to recovery in sight2020 was ruinous for tourism, with millions around the world in lockdownThe blow in the Baltics was softened by local tourism Vaccination seems to clear the route to recovery ..
Macro Focus
March 30, 2021
Nordic Macro Monthly: A defining quarter is approaching
The pandemic situation has worsened in recent weeks and lockdown measures are on the rise.But the Nordic economies, including the labour markets, have shown resilience so far.
Macro Focus
March 25, 2021
What’s up, Europe? - A Recovery Delayed, but not Derailed
The European economy is waking up from its hibernationECB steps up stimulus signalling this is not the time for tightening of financial conditionsPolitical shifts have both upside and downside risks, but could even result in deeper integration..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 16, 2021
Strong market activity in Baltic capitals at the end of 2020
Despite the rollercoaster during the year 2020 caused by the global pandemic, housing remained affordable in all three Baltic capitals. After severely damaged market activity during the first wave of the pandemic, the end of the year brought a spec..
Macro Focus
March 15, 2021
The green taxonomy: a driver for the transition
New EU disclosure rules will reduce greenwashing and speed up the green transition Modest effects on rates in the short term, but large impact in the long run Green trends boosted in the Nordics; direct effects in the Baltics will be smaller The EU..
Macro Focus
March 8, 2021
ECB preview: more open mouth operations, but only that?
Economic divergence continues in services and manufacturing.Inflation lifts its head and we expect annual inflation to reach 1.5% in 2021.ECB is likely to emphasize that the PEPP is flexible and that asset purchases are front-loaded.We do not expec..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 3, 2021
Services PMI rose to 62.7 in February: Robust service activity
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) registered 62.7 in February after an upward revision to 59.6 in January, consolidating the recovery that the country’s large service businesses have seen since the secon..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 3, 2021
Average wage increased but less than before the crisis
In the fourth quarter, in Estonia, average gross wage amounted to 1515 euros, up by 2.9%, over the year. In 2020, the average wage increased by 2.9%, too. That is much less than before the crisis, for example, in 2015-2019, the average gross wage r..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 2, 2021
Wage growth still rapid in Latvia despite higher unemployment in 2020
Average wage up 6.2% in 2020 - only slightly slower than in 2019.Total wages rose more slowly than average wage, reflecting reduced working hours and job shedding.Most sectors saw slowdown, while only a few recorded a decline. Average wage growth r..
PMI Sweden
March 1, 2021
PMI fell to 61.6 in February – continued momentum in Swedish industry
• The PMI fell for the second month in a row, to 61.6 in February from 62.5 in January, which is far above the historical average (54.5). Swedish industry continues to report a high level of activity, although longer delivery times may be a sign of..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 1, 2021
The Estonian economy is recovering from the crisis
In 2020, Estonian GDP fell by 2.9% in real terms and 3.4% in nominal terms. The result was close to our expectations – our forecast, published in January, was -2.7%. In addition, GDP results for the first three quarters were revised down by 1.1 pp...
Flash comment: Latvia
February 26, 2021
Latvia: GDP in 2020 down by 3.6%
GDP in Q4 grew 1.1% vs Q3. The economy was 1.5% behind last year’s level.GDP in 2020 fell by 3.6% - a slightly worse result than the flash estimate suggestedMain negative contributor in Q4 and the whole year was private consumption, while export pe..
Macro Focus
February 26, 2021
2nd wave of COVID-19 – bad, but better than last spring
The dire epidemiological situation in Baltics and ensuing restrictions caused a steep fall in card spending at the start of 2021. However, the fall overall is less pronounced than in spring. Total transactions are down 10% in Lithuania and Estonia,..
Macro Focus
February 25, 2021
Nordic Macro Monthly: The turnaround is close, but downside risks dominate
The Nordic economies stand strong and pre-crisis GDP levels are within reach.The pandemic still threatens the recovery as mutation variants spread and vaccination lags.Special theme: Targeted and timely support to businesses remains crucial.Fiscal ..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 24, 2021
Latvia: Unemployment rate declined in Q4 despite virus resurgence
Unemployment rate down to 7.9% in Q4, but recent months have seen growing ranks of the unemployed.Part of the rise is seasonal, but effect of restrictions to economic activity is evidently increasing.Government support is becoming more and more gen..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 15, 2021
The unemployment rate was 7.4% in the fourth quarter in Estonia
In the fourth quarter of 2020, in Estonia, employment shrank by 2.8%, over the year, and the unemployment rate amounted to 7.4%, somewhat less than the 7.7% in Q3. The number of the unemployed increased by 24,000, in a year. In 2020, employment d..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 3, 2021
Services PMI rose to 59.3 in January: Strong start to 2021
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) increased to 59.3 in January from an upward revision to 56.9 in December, marking the fourth consecutive month that the index is above the historical average (55.4). The..
Macro Focus
February 2, 2021
ECB Update: Italian bonds not over-represented in December-January purchases
Data on PEPP transactions in December and January show a clear decline in QE purchases. In December-January, the total net purchases in the PEPP was 110 bn euros, roughly 23 bn less than in October-November and far below top levels seen during summ..
PMI Sweden
February 2, 2021
PMI dropped to 62.4 in January – down from a high level
• The PMI fell in January to 62.4 from a downward revision of 64.7 in December. While this is the first time in eight months that the index fell, it is still at high levels and far above the historical average (54.4). Swedish manufacturing activity..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 1, 2021
Latvia: Q4 GDP surprises on the upside
GDP in Q4 2020 increased by 1.1% over the previous quarterThe economy was just 1.4% below levels of the final quarter of 2019, also known as the pre-crisis level The virus crisis has resulted in a fall in GDP of 3.5% in 2020. A markedly better resu..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 29, 2021
Lithuania dodges double-dip recession
Economy expands 1.2% q/q in Q4In 2020 economy shrinks only 0.9% Lithuanian economy defied expectations yet again. Despite spending most of the quarter under restrictions to economic activity, Lithuania managed to achieve quarterly economic g..
Macro Focus
January 21, 2021
ECB comment: Flexibility is the word of the day
Today’s ECB meeting was uneventful, which was expected.No policy changes, but clear emphasis on flexibility and readiness to adjusts measures if needed.After a decision-packed December meeting, there were no expectations about today’s ECB meeting, ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 20, 2021
The turnaround is close
The second wave of the corona pandemic is still having a profound impact on economic activity globally, as well as in the Nordic and Baltic countries. Restrictions have once again been imposed on many activities, the spread of the infection remains..
Macro Focus
January 13, 2021
Synchronized cooling
Economies cooled at the fastest rate in a decadeWeaker labour markets and inflation are the primary drivers of cooling Unsurprisingly, temperature of the Baltic economies dropped rapidly due to the massive pandemic shock. In all three cou..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 11, 2021
Deflation Continues in December
Prices of goods decrease by 1.4%Prices of services increase by 1.6% Average price of services keeps increasing in Latvia at a diminishing rate. Average price of goods continues to decrease due to lack of demand caused by coronavirus restrictions.
Flash comment: Estonia
January 8, 2021
Consumer prices down by 0.4% in 2020
Last year's deflation was caused by sluggish demand and a decline in taxes.Inflation should return in the second quarter this year. Consumer prices decreased by 0.4% in Estonia in 2020, one of the weakest price recordings in the euro area. Prices ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 7, 2021
Services PMI fell to 56.6 in December: Slowdown in the economy
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) registered 56.6 in December after a downward revision to 58.3 in November. The index retreated for the first time since September, but for the fourth consecutive month i..
PMI Sweden
January 4, 2021
PMI rose to 64.9 in December – strong finish to 2020
• The PMI rose in December to 64.9 from an upward revision of 59.8 in November. It is the largest monthly increase since last summer, strengthening what appears to be a broad recovery in Swedish manufacturing. This is a surprisingly strong outcome ..
Macro Focus
January 4, 2021
Macro Focus: UK trade post-Brexit and consequences for the economy
Tariff-free trade with the EU, but non-tariff barriers will be significant.Limited short-run effects on EU-UK trade despite initial disruptions.Third-country deals may partially offset reduced trade, but resumed EU talks will be key.On Christmas Ev..
Macro Focus
December 17, 2020
Remote work. How does it affect us in the Baltics?
Our survey results suggest that around one-half of currently remotely working persons had no telework experience before the Covid-19 crisis hit.Productivity losses were reported by about one-third of respondents, while less than one-fifth managed t..
Macro Focus
December 16, 2020
Euro area PMI. Surprise outperformance brought an early Christmas present
Composite PMI bounces back to 49.8 Industry continues outperforming Services improve substantially despite restrictions December brought a welcome surprise. Flash estimate showed recovering economic activity levels in Europe. It could mean that t..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 15, 2020
Baltic HAI - Respite for the Housing Market
Third quarter marks a recovery in the housing market Housing affordability remained high throughout the three quarters of 2020. In the third quarter, housing affordability increased in Estonia (+2.8) and Latvia (+4.1), while decreasing in Lithuania..
Flash comment: Latvia
December 8, 2020
Deflation continues
Average price level drops by 0.7% in NovemberPrices of goods decrease by 1.6% Prices of services increase by 1.4% While services keep increasing at a slower rate in November, goods have experienced a decrease of average price level by 1.6% caused b..
Macro Focus
December 8, 2020
The Three-Body Problem of Monetary Policy
Innovative use of QE, policy rates, and TLTROs will going forward be key tools for the ECB The monetary toolkit has expanded massively in the past decade; the focus will be on how the tools interact, which will offer more opportunities to fine-tune..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 58.6 in November: The recovery continues
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) rose to 58.6 in November from an upward revision to 55.3 in October. The service economy has further strengthened and for the fourth straight month the Services PMI is a..
Macro Focus
December 3, 2020
Nordic Macro Monthly: Pent up demand will boost Nordics towards summer
The Nordic economies are struggling with the consequences of the Corona pandemic, but so far, the region’s resilience has been surprisingly strongGDP growth this year will fall in all the Nordics by around 4%, much less than in most other developed..
PMI Sweden
December 1, 2020
PMI rose to 59.1 in November: Industry shifts into higher gear
• The PMI reached 59.1 in November from an upward revision of 58.4 in October. This is the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2017 and the third month in a row that the index is above the historical average (54.4). The Swedish manufacturing ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2020
Latvia: GDP in Q3 up strongly
GDP recovered by 7.1% QoQ, but was still down by 2.6% YoY in Q3 2020.Growth was boosted by strong recovery in private consumption and exports, albeit remaining under last year’s levels. Value added improved notably in catering and accommodation, as..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2020
Estonian economy rebounded rapidly in the third quarter
In the third quarter of 2020, Estonian economy dropped by 1.9% y/y in real terms (seasonally and working day non-adjusted). Seasonally and working day adjusted GDP rose by 3.3% q/q. The result was close to our expectations. In the first three quart..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 27, 2020
Wage growth accelerated a bit in the third quarter in Estonia
Gross wage growth accelerated from 1.0% in the second quarter to 3.1% in the third quarter, over the year, as economic activity increased, and the government’s wage support programme ended (substantially lower wages was one of the indicators to qua..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 26, 2020
Wages are seemingly unfazed by the pandemic
Gross wages up 10.4% annually in Q3Low earners more often drop out of the labour market Wage growth in Lithuania has been particularly strong given the precarious situation in the global economy. After the slowdown in the 2nd quarter in..
Macro Focus
November 23, 2020
Transactions: further to the downside
Card spending and cash withdrawal in the Baltics somewhat declined as virus case count surged. However, transactions are still holding up better than during the first wave.Card spending and cash withdrawal in Q4 has increased by 3.7% YoY in Lithuan..
Macro Focus
November 18, 2020
Macro Focus - Brexit briefing
Negotiations have entered a critical phase, while disagreements persistAn agreement remains our baseline scenario, but the risk of a no-deal lingersTime for reaching a deal is running out, as ratification of an agreement is required A trade deal is..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 13, 2020
Unemployment rate increased in the third quarter in Estonia
• The unemployment rate increased in the third quarter in Estonia and is expected to rise further during the winter months. According to Statistics Estonia, employment fell by 3.6% in the third quarter, over the year, mostly in the services’ sect..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 9, 2020
Deflation is still here
The average price level fell by 0.7% over a year in October. Goods’ prices decreased by 1.6%, but prices of services grew by 1.5%. The main inflation limiting factors were transport related costs (due to low fuel prices), and housing related costs,..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 5, 2020
A season of darkness – with reason for hope
The world economy is experiencing an unprecedented rollercoaster ride due to the coronavirus. The lowest point is behind us, but we will have to wait for a clear-cut and lasting recovery.In the Baltic countries, a relatively mild contraction during..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 4, 2020
Services PMI rose to 55.0 in October: Recovery is slowing down
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) rose a modest 0.3 points in October to 55.0 compared with September. The index is in line with the historical average but at the same time isn’t rising at the same rate ..
Macro Focus
November 4, 2020
US Election 2020: Market becomes rosier as Biden seems to take the lead
Looks like a “blue shift” is comingVolatile day in the marketsCounting will continue in the days to come
Macro Focus
November 4, 2020
US Election 2020: Initial results show that it’s too close to call
No matter what, Trump has done a surprisingly strong electionThe financial markets are awaiting a resultEconomic implications to depend on the President & Congress races
PMI Sweden
November 2, 2020
PMI rose to 58.2 in October: Manufacturing proves resilient to coronavirus surge
• The PMI continues to rise, reaching 58.2 in October after an upward revision of 55.9 in September. This is the second month in a row that the index is higher than the historical average, suggesting a robust recovery. The increase in Covid-19 case..
Macro Focus
November 2, 2020
US Election 2020: Bidenomics would give short-run growth boost
Joe Biden’s economic plan is expected to lift GDP growth in the years to come… but the plan would also come with some long-run risks.From a global and regional perspective, the Biden policy would be more predictable.In this analysis, we dig further..
Macro Focus
November 2, 2020
US Election 2020: The election night
The US election night will keep many people busy. The opening and closing times for polling stations differ across the country and some initial results (e.g. Florida) may be more important to look at. If the race is very tight, it could take days, ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2020
Lithuania: as expected, strong recovery in Q3
GDP in Q3 2020 grew by 3.7% compared with the previous quarter and was 1.7% below last year’s levelQuickly worsening epidemiological situation casts gloom on recovery – Q4 is likely to be weaker, but nowhere near as bad as the second quarter GDP ..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 29, 2020
Latvia: strong bounce-back in Q3
GDP in Q3 saw very strong growth, but more is required to recoup last year’s levels GDP in Q3 2020 up by 6.6% over the previous quarter, but still 3.1% behind levels of last year The spread of the virus casts gloom on recovery – Q4 is likely to s..
Macro Focus
October 26, 2020
The share of the Baltic countries’ export is growing in Europe
Exports have been recovering from the spring trough in all the Baltic countries Increased net exports have softened the drop of GDP, especially in Lithuania Baltic countries have gained market shares of their exported goods in the EUExports from al..
Macro Focus
October 21, 2020
Russia: A solid recovery, but the risks remain on the downside
In this crisis, the Russian economy had to confront two shocks at the same time – the coronavirus outbreak and the steep decline in oil prices caused by the pandemic.The slump in oil prices and oil production cuts have led to a decline in Russia’s ..
Macro Focus
October 19, 2020
US Election 2020: Prepare for a change in the White House
Our base case is a Joe Biden victory and a Democratic clean sweep… …but much can still happen, and absentee voting will increase a lot.Likelihood of major political turbulence is low, but would affect financial markets most.The US election is comin..
Flash comment: Estonia
October 7, 2020
Deflation continued in September
• Deflation amounted to 1.1% in Estonia in September, over the year. • We expect prices to decline by 0.4% in 2020. In September, the fall in consumer prices deepened from 0.9% in August to 1.1% in September. Food prices increased less than befor..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 5, 2020
Services PMI dropped to 54.7 in September: The recovery slowed
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell by 2.6 points in September to 54.7 after an upward revision to 57.3 in August. This is the first time since April that the index dropped, but it remains in the grow..
PMI Sweden
October 1, 2020
PMI rose to 55.3 in September: Robust recovery
• The PMI increased for the fifth consecutive month and registered 55.3 in September from an upward revision of 53.8 in August. The recovery in manufacturing industry is continuing and the index is now, for the first time since autumn 2018, above t..
Macro Focus
September 21, 2020
Finland: Only small corona effects on the housing market so far
Surprisingly small effects from the corona outbreak on construction activity in Finland.Stimulating monetary policy continues to boost supply through cheap funding costs for constructors and demand both through the cheap funding channel and lack of..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 17, 2020
Housing Affordability Index tells a different story this time
During the second quarter of 2020, the Baltic economies, like the rest of the world, were hit by the corona crisis. In the housing markets of the Baltic capitals, it was the secondary market that bore the brunt of pandemic damage. There was a drop ..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 8, 2020
Deflation is back
Prices of goods are down by 1% Prices of services rose by 1.6% While the price growth of services remained stable, the price growth of goods back to the negative territory due to cheaper fuel.
Flash comment: Latvia
September 1, 2020
Latvia: Wages up in Q2 despite pandemic
Wage growth slowed, but remained in positive territory, at 3.9% y/y in Q2Most sectors saw slowdown, while only a few recorded a declineWages picked up at a similar annual pace in both public and private sector Despite a substantial slump in economi..
PMI Sweden
September 1, 2020
PMI rose to 53.4 in August: Manufacturing shifts up a gear
• The PMI registered 53.4 in August from an upward revision of 51.4 in July. This is the second consecutive month that the PMI is in the growth zone and it is now at the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2018. While last spring’s PMI declin..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 31, 2020
Latvia: plummeting consumption drags down GDP
GDP down by 8.9% YoY in Q2 2020, and by 5.4% in the first half of 2020Growth during crisis dragged down chiefly by private consumption Value added fell the most in catering and accommodation, arts and recreation and transport The second reading of ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 31, 2020
A dip rather than collapse
Quarterly rate revised down to -5.5%Economy contracted only 4.2% y/yExternal sector cushioned the impact As more data rolls out the extent of economic damage caused by the pandemic is revealed. Second quarter performance of Lithuanian econom..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2020
Flash comment: Estonia - Economy dropped less than expected in Q2
Estonian economy dropped less than expected in Q2In the second quarter of 2020, Estonian economy dropped by 6.9% y/y in real terms and 8.4% in nominal terms. Seasonally and working day adjusted GDP dropped by 5.6% q/q. The result exceeded our expec..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 27, 2020
Wage growth decelared
• The average gross wage increased by only 1.0%, over the year, in the second quarter. • Swedbank expects wages to grow by 2.2% this year. Less work means lower pay Gross wage growth decelerated from 4.8% in the first quarter to 1.0% in the seco..
Macro Focus
August 27, 2020
No green recovery so far
Green investments account only for a tiny share of global stimulus announced so far. Announced green stimulus in our home markets ranges from around 2 % of GDP in Denmark to 0.02 % in Sweden, where more is expected. Equally important to avoid suppo..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 25, 2020
Better and better, but still on thin ice
Growth is picking up after a terrible second quarter. But nothing is back to normal. Uncertainty will fade only after the threat from the pandemic is removed. Supportive fiscal and monetary policy is needed, but this comes with negative side-effect..
Macro Focus
August 24, 2020
No big drama in Lithuanian trade. Why so?
On the back of strong momentum, the coronavirus crisis did not significantly affect Lithuanian exports, which dropped by 2.4% (excluding mineral products) during the first six months of 2020. Food and fertiliser production, which constitute a big s..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 17, 2020
Latvia: Labour market worsens less than expected in Q2
Unemployment rate up to 8.6% in Q2, less than expectedEmployment down by 1.5% y/yWeakest point in the labour market likely behind us Despite a record quarterly drop in economic activity, the worsening in the labour market in Q2 was smaller than we ..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 14, 2020
Situation in the labour market has deteriorated in Estonia
• The unemployment rate increased moderately in the second quarter but has been stable since then.• We expect the unemployment rate to reach around 8% this year and then decrease again next year. According to Statistics Estonia, employment fell ..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 10, 2020
Inflation is back
In July, price change of goods came out of negative territory that led to 0.5% annual inflation in Latvia. Prices of goods did not change. Prices of services rose by 1.6%.In 2020 inflation could remain low – in 7 months prices rose by only 0.7%.
Macro Focus
August 10, 2020
China: A solid but uneven recovery while big risks remain
Recovery led by industry and exportsGDP growth surprised on the upside in Q2, supported by net exports and inventories. Exports have been boosted by medical products and electronics, as China produces many of the goods necessary in a pandemic. Tota..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 31, 2020
Latvia: Bad, but in line with expectations
GDP down in Q2 2020 by 9.8% YoY and 7.5% over the previous quarterRecovery was rapid right after the relaxation of measures, but expected to lose strength as global growth disappointsGDP in Q2 declined in line with forecasts, following a sharper-th..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 30, 2020
GDP drops only 3.8% in Q2
It seems as if someone forgot to inform Lithuanian economy that economic crisis of a century is ravaging the global economy. Lithuanian Real GDP dropped barely 3.8% in annual terms, beating all estimates by a wide margin. It was evident from..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 8, 2020
In June, prices down by 0.7%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.3% The spread of coronavirus in Latvia is well controlled and the restrictions introduced in March were eased quite quickly. Therefore, the situation with price changes is starting to stabil..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 49.2 in June: Big jump after the spring swoon
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) registered 49.2 in June after an upward revision to 41.6 in May. Since bottoming out in April, the index has risen 9.5 points, indicating that the slump in the service s..
PMI Sweden
July 1, 2020
PMI rose to 47.3 in June – rebound after the spring swoon
• The PMI rose in June by 7.3 points to 47.3 from an upward revision of 40.0 in May. This means that a large share of the index’s spring decline has been recouped, indicating that the trough in manufacturing activity has been passed. The big increa..
Macro Focus
June 23, 2020
Macro Focus - Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed. Will EU’s recovery fund help in reaching targets?
Environmental protection area remains pivotal in speeding up progress – no country is on track to meet environmental goals in UN 2030 Agenda. All Nordic countries perform well on governance and institutions, whereas the Baltics have a lot of catchi..
Macro Focus
June 18, 2020
Rail Baltica lifts construction volumes
The construction of the new railway will have a substantial impact on the Baltic economies,boosting demand for construction materials and services, even when many goods and services are imported. The new fast railway line from Estonia’s capital to ..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 10, 2020
Will high affordability save the market?
At the start of 2020, the housing market in the Baltics was still unfazed by the pandemic. Overall housing affordability was high in all the capitals. However, housing affordability in Tallinn and Vilnius decreased in the first quarter, compared wi..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 8, 2020
Deflation is here: Prices down by 0.6%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.8% Despite the signs of weakness prices of services maintained the positive rate of change. But prices of goods plunged deeper in the negative area. Prices of transport decreased significant..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 40.9 in May: Economic decline eased slightly
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) turned slightly higher in May to 40.9 from 39.0 in April after a big decline in March and April. Although the worst is probably now over for the Services PMI, there aren..
PMI Sweden
June 1, 2020
PMI rose to 39.2 in May – Economic slowdown eases
• The PMI rose to 39.2 in May from 36.4 in April after having fallen by a total of 16.5 points in March and April. This means that the downturn in Swedish manufacturing industry has slowed. While it is still too early to say whether a bottom has be..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 29, 2020
Latvia: private consumption dragged down Q1 GDP
GDP down in Q1 2020 by 1.5% YoY, and 2.9% QoQ Growth dragged down by private consumption Value added fell the most in transport as well as arts and recreationThe second reading of GDP figures was little changed from the flash estimate.Swedbank expe..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2020
The steep decline in taxes contracted Estonian GDP in the first quarter
In Estonia, GDP contracted 0.7% yoy (non-adjusted) and 3.7% qoq (seasonally and working day adjusted) in 1QThe steep fall in VAT and excise taxes contributed negatively, while the gross value added increased 2% yoy. There were more economic activit..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 28, 2020
Lavia: Labour market gets first coronavirus’ chills in Q1
Labour market weakened, unemployment rate up to 7.4% in Q1Wage growth moderated to 6.6% y/y in Q1, led by the private sectorWeaker developments expected in Q2Although the virus containment measures were in force for just a couple of weeks, labour m..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 27, 2020
Previously rapid wage growth stalls in Estonia this year
• Wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in Q1. • Swedbank expects wages to grow by only 0.5% this year. Wage growth decelerated in the first quarter Gross wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in the first quarter. The averag..
Nordic-Baltic Business Report
May 26, 2020
Well prepared to take on the challenge
The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness.Strong economic fundamentals and a timely reaction to the health crisis ensure that the countries are in an advantageous po..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2020
The unemployment rate should peak this autumn
• Labour market figures were still strong before the crisis. • Data has deteriorated rapidly since March. Corona crisis did not affect Q1 data Q1 labour market survey was carried out between January and March, i.e. before the crisis hit. Therefo..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
May 13, 2020
In the midst of the Corona crisis – the bottom has likely been reached
The development of the coronavirus remains a key factor shaping the economy, although focus has shifted somewhat towards exit strategies and post-pandemic stimulus. Compared to our previous forecast almost two months ago, the lockdowns have becom..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 12, 2020
Annual inflation 0%
Prices of goods fell by 0.8% Prices of services rose by 2.1% Fuel prices and prices of housing related services pulled inflation down. Fuel prices followed global oil prices and were down by 20%. Housing related services were cheaper due to previou..
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