Swedbank Macro Research

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A list of the 50 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Flash comment: Lithuania
April 10, 2018
Annual inflation decelerates to 2.7% in March
Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 06, 2018
Inflation decelerated in March
Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 05, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.2 in March: Up marginally from February
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.2 in March, an increase of 0.2 points compared with February. The increase was driven by the sub-indices for suppliers’ delivery times and employment, while the indic..
PMI Sweden
April 03, 2018
PMI fell to 55.9 in March: Continued expansion
• The PMI fell to 55.9 in March, down 4.0 points from February. Despite the decline, the reading indicates a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was the biggest negative contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-ind..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 27, 2018
Trade tensions imperil the global momentum
In the past year, the global economy has enjoyed a strong rebound in global trade. This has contributed to lifting the global economy out of the stagnant growth path that followed the financial crisis. US tariffs and the risk of retaliation, in add..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 14, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Riga and Vilnius, but decreased in Tallinn in the fourth quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..
Estonian Economy
March 12, 2018
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 08, 2018
Annual inflation rate declines for the sixth month in a row in February
In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 07, 2018
Annual inflation drops to 3.5% in February
Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.0 in February: Remains at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell 2.3 points to 59.0 in February. Despite the decline, the Services PMI remains at a high level. All sub-indices contributed negatively, with the sub-index for new orders acc..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 02, 2018
Tightening labour market lifted wages by 7.9% in 2017
• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 01, 2018
Wage growth was rapid and broad-based
• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..
PMI Sweden
March 01, 2018
PMI rose to 59.9 in February: The trend remains strong
• The PMI rose to 59.9 in February from 57.0 in January, a gain of 2.9 points. The high number is an indication of the continued strength in manufacturing. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, adding 2.0 points to the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 01, 2018
Last year’s great performance is unlikely to be repeated soon
Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2018
GDP growth fastest in six years
The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2018
Estonia’s GDP growth was broad-based and the fastest of last six years
In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2018
Gross wages grow at 8.5% in 2017
Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2018
Higher employment and lower unemployment rate
• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2018
Inflation at 4% in January and is set to ease this year
Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 12, 2018
Annual headline inflation at 2.0% in the first month of 2018
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 09, 2018
Flash comment: Lithuania - February 9, 2018
The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in January: Begins 2018 at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 61.3 in January from 64.6 in December. The Services PMI clearly remains at a high level, however, which means that the economic indicator suggests that 2018 has started ..
PMI Sweden
February 01, 2018
PMI fell to 57.0 in January: Despite dip, 2018 begins strongly
• The PMI fell to 57.0 in January. This is 3.4 points lower than in December, which means that the new year began with a decline. Despite the downturn, the index remains at a high level. The sub-index for new orders was the largest negative contrib..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2018
GDP growth still strong, but slows to 4.2% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2018
Solid GDP growth to mark the end of a year
Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 24, 2018
Global growth – impressive so far, pitfalls ahead
As we enter 2018, the outlook for global growth is on a stronger footing. Euro area growth keeps improving, while the US has kept up speed. Emerging mar-kets are enjoying a positive momentum. The global cyclical upswing benefits the Nordic and Balt..
Macro Focus
January 24, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda
Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 10, 2018
Average annual inflation at 2.9% in 2017
After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 09, 2018
Average annual inflation at 3.7% in 2017
Annual inflation decelerated to 3.9% in December, while in monthly terms, consumer prices did not change. Annual growth in the prices of both, goods and services, eased towards the end of the year, to 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively. The dissipating..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 08, 2018
Inflation accelerated to 3.4% in 2017
Inflation picked up last year due to higher commodity prices and an increase in excise tax rates. Higher excise taxes added 0.9 percentage point to inflation in 2017. Among different products and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages cont..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 04, 2018
Services PMI rose to 64.6 in December: Record-high finish to 2017
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 64.6 in December. This is 2.7 points higher than in November. The December reading was the highest in 2017. The sub-index for business volumes contributed the most toget..
PMI Sweden
January 02, 2018
PMI fell to 60.4 in December: Despite decline, a strong finish
• The PMI fell to 60.4 in December, which is 2.9 points lower than in November. The index remains at a high level, however. Employment produced the biggest negative contribution to the PMI at 1.3 points, followed by the sub-index for new orders, wh..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 19, 2017
Housing affordability remains high in all three Baltic capitals in the third quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 148.6 in Tallinn, 177.2 in Riga, and 124.8 in Vilnius.In Tallinn, affordability increased by 2.9 point in the third quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as apartment price gro..
Macro Focus
December 14, 2017
With faster growth comes faster inflation
• Baltics at the top of EU 28 price growth as economic growth accelerates • Rapid wage growth is a blessing and a curse – notable service price increases in Lithuania and Estonia • Winter is not coming to Latvia – service inflation to heat up
Macro Focus
December 11, 2017
Bitcoin – another bubble or a monetary revolution?
Why did cryptocurrencies appreciate so much this year? Initial Coin Offering (ICO) – cheaper IPO, or a letter from the Nigerian prince? The future is likely to be shaped by regulators, not aficionados
Flash comment: Latvia
December 08, 2017
Annual inflation slowly retreats
For the third month in a row inflation slowly recedes. In November, annual inflation rate was 2.7%. Despite retreating inflation, it is considerably higher than a year before. In the eleven months of this year, annual average inflation was 3.0% (fo..
Flash comment: Lithuania
December 08, 2017
Inflation lingers at 4.4% annually
Annual inflation has not changed from October to November and was at 4.4%. Prices grew 0.3% month over month in November. Meanwhile, average annual inflation reached 3.5%. Prices of goods in annual terms grew 4%, while services price growth eased..
Baltic Sea Region Report
December 06, 2017
Heart-warming growth is a poor excuse to postpone reforms
• Growth at its cyclical peak • Productivity is the key to income convergence in the Baltics • Sustainable development – where do we stand? • Universal basic income – utopia or an urgent necessity? Growth at its cyclical peak The upswing in global ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 05, 2017
Services PMI rose to 61.8 in November – stays at high levels
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.8 in November, 0.4 points higher than in October. The sub-index for new orders contributed 1.3 points to the increase in the Services PMI, while other sub-indices con..
PMI Sweden
December 01, 2017
PMI rose to 63.3 in November: Manufacturing on overdrive
• The PMI rose to 63.3 in November, which is 4.0 points higher than in October and the third highest reading this year. New orders were the biggest contributor to the PMI at just over two points, followed by the contribution from the sub-index for ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2017
GDP growth at the top speed of the cycle
The real GDP growth was confirmed at 5.8% YoY (nsa) – the fastest growth since 2012! Most likely, it is the fastest pace of growth within this business cycle. The quarterly growth was at 1.5% (swda). The size of the economy is close to the pre-cris..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2017
Robust GDP growth continued in 3Q2017 as expected
In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to the growth comes from t..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2017
Wage growth remained rapid in Q3
• Wage growth remains relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by around 5% and the real net wage by close to 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2017
Slightly slower but still rapid wage growth in Q3
• Annual gross monthly wage growth at 7.5% in Q3 as labour market tightens • Wages up in almost all sectors • Payroll tax cuts and minimum wage hike to give additional boost to wage growth next year After surging 8.7% in the second quarter, the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 24, 2017
Wage growth slows as minimum wage effect fades
Annual wage growth slowed down to 7.2% in the third quarter. The waning effect of minimum monthly wage increases was the main reason for the slowdown. Wage growth was also dragged down by sluggish wage growth in the public sector. Its wages grew..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2017
Higher GDP growth lifts demand for labour
• The employment rate reached the highest level in 20 years. • The unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. Higher economic activity reflects in the developments in the labour market. In the third quarter, employment grew by 2.0%, the number of une..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 10, 2017
Unemployment down to 6.6%, but employment declines in Q3
The unemployment rate declined to 6.6% in the third quarter of this year and was 0.9 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained flat at 76.1% and thus did not alleviate the negative effect of the shrinking working age population on the labour..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 09, 2017
The start of descent for inflation
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in October, while annual inflation decelerated to 4.4%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3.3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods decelerated from 4,4% in September to 4% in October. ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 09, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update - November 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook presents the latest economic forecasts for Sweden, the Nordic and Baltic countries and the major global economies. In this update, current issues that have a bearing on economic developments are analysed. Global – Strong ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 03, 2017
Services PMI fell to 61.4 in October: Second highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell from 63.8 in September to 61.4 in October. All sub-indices except employment negatively contributed to the Services PMI. New orders were the biggest reason for the drop in ..

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