Swedbank Macro Research

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A list of the 50 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 08, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Tallinn and Riga but worsened in Vilnius in the first quarter 2018
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 182.0 in Riga and 152.0 in Tallinn, but decreased to 133.1 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.9 points in the first quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as very rapid wa..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 57.0 in May but stays at a high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 57.0 in May from 60.1 in April. A three-month moving average dropped to 58.7, which is 0.7 points lower than the corresponding average in April, marking the fourth conse..
Macro Focus
June 04, 2018
Italian politics: fire is out, but smoke still there
Italian bond yields have come down, as the government has been approved by the president, but future policy remains very uncertain. Confrontation with the EU, reversing past reforms, expansion of fiscal deficit could again ignite fear and volatilit..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 01, 2018
Economic growth boosted by construction in the first quarter
• Quarterly GDP growth at 1.6% (s.a.), annual growth at 4.2% (n.s.a) in the first quarter • Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, with only finance and transport sectors in red • Surge in construction and associated investment increase ..
PMI Sweden
June 01, 2018
PMI rose to 55.8 in May, remaining at a healthy level
• The PMI rose to 55.8 in May from 54.5 in April, rebounding after a two-month decline. The PMI consequently remains at a healthy level. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, followed by employment. Inventories also con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 01, 2018
Strong and well-balanced economic growth continues in Q1
Revised GDP figures show that the Lithuanian economy sustained the growth momentum and in annual terms increased by 3.7% in the first quarter of this year. Compared to the last quarter of 2017, GDP was 0.9% higher (in seasonally and working-day adj..
Macro Focus
June 01, 2018
Nordic and Baltic economies vulnerable to US trade tariffs
US steel and aluminium tariffs to worsen business sentiment, but small direct effect on growth in the Nordics and the BalticsThere are no winners in a trade war – tariffs will hurt the US as much as the EUThe direct effects on exports and imports a..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 31, 2018
Deceleration of economic growth in 1Q2018 was expected
GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 3.6% yoy in 1Q2018 in real terms. The slowdown was expected, as close to 5% growth in 2017 was above the potential, by far. Nominal GDP growth decelerated to 8%, but it’s still very robust.Labour shortage has..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2018
Wage growth accelerated in the first quarter
• The growth of the average gross wage accelerated to 7.7%, over the year, in the first quarter of 2018. • Families’ assessment of their financial situation is the highest on record. Rapid wage growth continued in the first quarter, around 8%..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 28, 2018
Record post-crisis wage growth in Q1
The annual average gross wage growth was the fastest since the financial crisis in 2009 and stood at 9.5% in the first quarter of the year. The average net wage grew a bit slower - it increased by 8.6% due to the fact that additional income tax red..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 23, 2018
Labour market tightening continued in the first quarter
Strong economic activity supported further labour market tightening at the beginning of this year. The number of unemployed decreased by about 11 thousand or 12% in the first quarter of this year compared to a year earlier. The fall in the unemploy..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2018
Demand for labour remains strong
• Higher economic activity lifted employment. • The number of the inactive declined substantially and the unemployment rate grew due to a labour market reform. According to Statistics Estonia, employment increased by 0.6% despite a strong bas..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 11, 2018
Unemployment at 7.2 % in Q1, employment increases marginally
The unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the first quarter of this year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Somewhat unexpectedly, the annual decline in the labour force eased to -0.8% and the decline in employment stalled (+0.1%). Despite rapid ec..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 10, 2018
Annual inflation at 2% in April
Annual inflation decreased to 2.0% in April with both prices of goods and services decelerating slightly on annual basis. Goods prices grew by 1.5% whereas service prices – by 3.3%. Global food prices have recently exhibited an upward trend owing..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 09, 2018
Annual inflation falls to 2.3% in April
In line with our expectations annual inflation continued to ease and stood at 2.3% in April. In annual terms, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Consumer prices were 0.6% higher compared to March - month..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 04, 2018
Services PMI rose to 60.1 in April: Trend remains stable
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 60.1 in April, which is 0.9 points higher than the March reading. The increase was mainly driven by the sub-index for business volumes, which is then followed by the sub..
PMI Sweden
May 03, 2018
PMI fell to 54.5 in April: Slowdown from high levels
The PMI fell to 54.5 in April from 55.9 in March. This is the second month in a row that the PMI fell, but developments in the manufacturing sector remain expansionary. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the total decrease, follow..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 02, 2018
Annual GDP growth picks up to 4.3% in the first quarter
The economic growth remained strong at the beginning of 2018. According to the first quarter flash estimates, the quarterly GDP growth was 1.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted data), while the annual growth accelerated to 4.3% compared to 4.2% (n..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2018
GDP expands by 3.6% in the first quarter
In the first quarter of this year real GDP increased by 3.6%, in annual terms. In quarterly terms GDP grew by 0.8% (season and working-day adjusted). Strong growth is supported by solid retail growth, which accelerated to 6.7% in the 1st quarter. ..
Estonian Economy
April 25, 2018
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth In a post-crisis period, the growth of Estonian labour productivity has been weakEstonian labour productivity is lower than majority of European Union member..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 10, 2018
Annual inflation decelerates to 2.7% in March
Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 06, 2018
Inflation decelerated in March
Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 05, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.2 in March: Up marginally from February
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.2 in March, an increase of 0.2 points compared with February. The increase was driven by the sub-indices for suppliers’ delivery times and employment, while the indic..
PMI Sweden
April 03, 2018
PMI fell to 55.9 in March: Continued expansion
• The PMI fell to 55.9 in March, down 4.0 points from February. Despite the decline, the reading indicates a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was the biggest negative contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-ind..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 27, 2018
Trade tensions imperil the global momentum
In the past year, the global economy has enjoyed a strong rebound in global trade. This has contributed to lifting the global economy out of the stagnant growth path that followed the financial crisis. US tariffs and the risk of retaliation, in add..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 14, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Riga and Vilnius, but decreased in Tallinn in the fourth quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..
Estonian Economy
March 12, 2018
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 08, 2018
Annual inflation rate declines for the sixth month in a row in February
In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 07, 2018
Annual inflation drops to 3.5% in February
Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.0 in February: Remains at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell 2.3 points to 59.0 in February. Despite the decline, the Services PMI remains at a high level. All sub-indices contributed negatively, with the sub-index for new orders acc..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 02, 2018
Tightening labour market lifted wages by 7.9% in 2017
• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 01, 2018
Wage growth was rapid and broad-based
• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..
PMI Sweden
March 01, 2018
PMI rose to 59.9 in February: The trend remains strong
• The PMI rose to 59.9 in February from 57.0 in January, a gain of 2.9 points. The high number is an indication of the continued strength in manufacturing. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, adding 2.0 points to the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 01, 2018
Last year’s great performance is unlikely to be repeated soon
Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2018
GDP growth fastest in six years
The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2018
Estonia’s GDP growth was broad-based and the fastest of last six years
In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2018
Gross wages grow at 8.5% in 2017
Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2018
Higher employment and lower unemployment rate
• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2018
Inflation at 4% in January and is set to ease this year
Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 12, 2018
Annual headline inflation at 2.0% in the first month of 2018
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 09, 2018
Flash comment: Lithuania - February 9, 2018
The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in January: Begins 2018 at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 61.3 in January from 64.6 in December. The Services PMI clearly remains at a high level, however, which means that the economic indicator suggests that 2018 has started ..
PMI Sweden
February 01, 2018
PMI fell to 57.0 in January: Despite dip, 2018 begins strongly
• The PMI fell to 57.0 in January. This is 3.4 points lower than in December, which means that the new year began with a decline. Despite the downturn, the index remains at a high level. The sub-index for new orders was the largest negative contrib..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2018
GDP growth still strong, but slows to 4.2% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2018
Solid GDP growth to mark the end of a year
Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 24, 2018
Global growth – impressive so far, pitfalls ahead
As we enter 2018, the outlook for global growth is on a stronger footing. Euro area growth keeps improving, while the US has kept up speed. Emerging mar-kets are enjoying a positive momentum. The global cyclical upswing benefits the Nordic and Balt..
Macro Focus
January 24, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda
Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 10, 2018
Average annual inflation at 2.9% in 2017
After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 09, 2018
Average annual inflation at 3.7% in 2017
Annual inflation decelerated to 3.9% in December, while in monthly terms, consumer prices did not change. Annual growth in the prices of both, goods and services, eased towards the end of the year, to 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively. The dissipating..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 08, 2018
Inflation accelerated to 3.4% in 2017
Inflation picked up last year due to higher commodity prices and an increase in excise tax rates. Higher excise taxes added 0.9 percentage point to inflation in 2017. Among different products and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages cont..

Please note that in 2014 the publication "Global Economy" changed name to "Macro Focus".

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