Swedbank Macro Research

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A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Flash comment: Latvia
September 9, 2019
Annual inflation in August reached 3.2%
In Latvia, annual inflation reached 3.2% in August 2019. It was above the average of 2018, but ranks only as third in 2019, after April and May highs. The prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco were the fastest growing (5.6% higher than the last..
Macro Focus
September 9, 2019
Euro area: Quo Vadis R*?
Demographics and productivity are the main drivers of interest rates in the upcoming decades Without an increase in potential GDP growth, interest rates will remain low and will have many unwelcome side-effects It’s more difficult to stimulate t..
Estonian Economy
September 5, 2019
The Estonian Economy - Business sector digitalisation and automation: opportunities and challenges
Business sector digitalisation: opportunities and challengesEstonia has been in the forefront of e-Government solutions, but integration of innovative digital technologies in the business sector is still below the European Union average.Estonian ma..
PMI Sweden Service sector
September 4, 2019
Services PMI rose to 54.1 in August: Increase but from low level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) rose in August to 54.1 and reached the highest level since March of this year. The upturn came in large part through an increase in new orders, which we know can show la..
PMI Sweden
September 2, 2019
PMI rose to 52.4 in August: Growth but lower than normal
• The PMI rose to 52.4 in August from 51.9 in July. The trend during the summer months indicates that the index is stabilizing. While this deviates from other countries, especially in the eurozone, where PMI readings continue to point downward, the..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 30, 2019
Flash comment: Estonia - August 30, 2019
Economic growth is still strong despite weakened foreign demandIn the second quarter of 2019, Estonian GDP growth slowed to 3.6% y/y in real terms and to 7.9% y/y in nominal terms. In the first half of this year, GDP growth was 4.2% in real terms. ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 30, 2019
Still strong growth, but looming risks ahead
Against most expectations, the Lithuanian economy bucked the trend in the first half of 2019 – GDP has increased by 4% (when season and calendar adjusted) and 4.1% (without the adjustments), compared to the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, in..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 29, 2019
Wage pressures expected to ease a bit next year
Wage growth is rapid and broad-based. The average gross wage amounted to EUR 1,419, up by 7.4%, over the year, in the second quarter. Wage growth was broad-based, in terms of sectors and levels. Tax Authority’s wage data show that the average gross..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 29, 2019
Wage growth keeps up in the Q2
Despite softening economic growth and the first signs of weakening in the labour market, wages are still increasing rapidly. The annual gross wage growth remained steady at 7.8% in the second quarter. Public sector wage growth has eased this year, ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 27, 2019
Tuffare tider för svensk ekonomi
Världsekonomin tappar fart och går in i en tydlig avmattning nästa år. Det här spiller över på svensk ekonomi som bromsar in snabbare än väntat. Vi justerar ned tillväxtprognosen för Sverige och räknar med att BNP ökar med ca 1 procent nästa år och..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 27, 2019
A marked downturn
The global economy is in for a marked downturn. Central banks are promising action, but their tools are limited. We advocate that fiscal policy, if used wisely, is more effective than monetary policy to counteract the downturn. We expect, however, ..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 15, 2019
Unemployment shrinks in Q2 despite softer economic growth
Despite slower economic growth, the unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in the second quarter. It was by 1.3 percentage points lower compared to the previous year. The number of unemployed declined by 18% largely driven by shrinking working age populati..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 15, 2019
Labour shortages could ease somewhat next year
No significant changes in Q2 data According to Statistics Estonia, labour market remained tight but did not improve further in the 2nd quarter. The number of the employed and the number of the unemployed stayed at last year’s level. Employment’s ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 9, 2019
Immigration boosts labour force
Unemployment has shrunk 0.4pp in the second quarter of 2019 but was 0.2pp higher than a year ago – the first annual increase in unemployment since 2010. However, the reasons for increase in unemployment is not a sign of distress or weakening in eco..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 8, 2019
Annual inflation in July at 2.9%
Annual inflation was 2.9% in July that is below its 7 months average in 2019. Inflation of both goods and services moderated to 2.9% and 2.8% respectively. Prices of services experienced the smallest annual increase in 2019. The main drivers of ann..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 8, 2019
Average annual inflation remains steady at 2.4%
Due to the summer sales, monthly prices have decreased by 0.3% in July, whereas annual inflation remained steady for a sixth month in a row and stood at 2.4%. Prices of goods were 1.9% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.5%. ..
PMI Sweden
August 1, 2019
PMI remained at 52.0 in July: Stabilization at a low level
• The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was 52.0 in July, unchanged compared with June. The index has stabilized in recent months but is still at the lowest levels in six years, an indication of continued sluggishness in Swedish manufacturing, says ..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 30, 2019
Annual GDP growth moderates to 2.1% in the second quarter
Economic growth continued into the second quarter, however, the annual growth rate slowed. According to the flash estimate, the quarterly GDP growth rebounded to 0.8% (seasonally and calendar adjusted), while the annual growth slowed to 2.1% (not a..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 30, 2019
Strong and well-balanced economic growth continued in Q2
Lithuanian economy remained resilient to the global challenges and continued growing at an accelerated pace. GDP has increased by 4% (when season and calendar adjusted) and 4.1% (without the adjustments) in the second quarter of this year, compa..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 8, 2019
Annual inflation in June at 3%
In June, the annual rate of inflation continues to slow down comparing to higher rate in April, but still is at 3% level. The annual inflation rate in June was 3%, with goods’ prices rising by 3.1%, and services’ prices rising by 2.9%. The annual r..
Flash comment: Estonia
July 5, 2019
Inflation has decelerated this year
In June, inflation reached 2.4%, over the year. Goods were 1.8% and services 3.5% more expensive. Almost half of the increase in prices resulted from higher prices of food and housing. The prices of fresh vegetables have surged due to a drought las..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 3, 2019
Services PMI fell to 49.9 in June: Cooling service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell in June to 49.9 from a downward revision of 52.8 in May, reaching the lowest level in six years. While individual months should be interpreted with caution, especia..
PMI Sweden
July 1, 2019
PMI fell to 52.0 in June: Weak finish to the second quarter
• The PMI dropped to 52.0 in June compared with 53.1 in May. This marks the second largest decline so far this year, and even though the PMI has trended sideways in recent months, the downside economic risks have remained high, says Jörgen Kennemar..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 13, 2019
In Q1 2019, the housing affordability index (HAI) increased in Vilnius, stayed unchanged in Tallinn, but decreased in Riga
In Tallinn, the HAI stayed almost unchanged (-0.1 point) at 151.9 in the first quarter of 2019, compared with the first quarter of 2018, as net wage growth was slightly slower than an increase in apartment prices and interest rates.In Riga, the HAI..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 5, 2019
Services PMI fell to 53.3 in May: Slowdown in the service economy
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell by 0.6 points in May to 53.3, the lowest level since 2016. This marks the third month in a row that the Services PMI has fallen, reinforcing the downturn in the ser..
PMI Sweden
June 3, 2019
PMI rose to 53.1 in May: Stabilization in industrial activity
• The PMI rose to 53.1 in May compared with 50.9 in April, which is the highest level since November 2018. The downward trend in the PMI has been broken, suggesting that the Swedish industrial sector is stabilizing with help from a weak krona despi..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 31, 2019
Strong beginning of 2019 exceeded expectations
Strong beginning of 2019 exceeded expectationsEconomic growth remained very strong at the beginning of 2019. In the first quarter of 2019, GDP growth in Estonia accelerated to 4.5% yoy in real terms and to 8.5% yoy in nominal terms. Strong first qu..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 31, 2019
Robust economic growth did not lose pace in Q1
Even though Lithuania is an open economy, greatly dependent on imports and exports, country’s growth pace shows it is still reluctant to the global challenges, such as US-China trade war and German slowdown. GDP figures show that Lithuanian econ..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2019
Wage growth has not decelerated
In the first quarter of 2019, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1341, up by 8.0%, in a year. The average gross wage increased in almost all sectors. Wage growth was more rapid in construction, where volumes have grown markedly in rec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 28, 2019
Major gains in purchasing power due to tax reform
Wage dynamics of the last year continued in first quarter. Gross wage growth adjusted for tax reform eased by 0.3pp to 9.4%. In private sector wage growth cooled off by 1.1pp down to 7.4%. Meanwhile in public sector wage growth accelerated further ..
Macro Focus
May 21, 2019
India’s elections: more of the same will not turn India into a superpower
Prime Minister Modi’s ruling alliance is expected to win a thin majority India needs a bold economic reform agendaUntapped potential Indian PM Modi’s party is unlikely to repeat its success of the previous election of 2014, in which its coalition..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 16, 2019
The scarcity of labour keeps wage growth elevated
• The unemployment rate declined, and the employment rate slightly increased in the first quarter. • According to Swedbank’s forecast, labour market should remain tight this year, so wage pressures persist. Labour market remains tight Accordi
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 10, 2019
Employment growth exceeds expectations
Lithuanian labour market continued its strong run in the first quarter of 2019, solid economic expansion fueled demand for labour. Unemployment rate declined to 6.5%, 0.7pp lower than a year ago. Meanwhile annual employment growth was 2%, well abov..
Nordic-Baltic Business Report
May 8, 2019
Remarkably resilient in the face of global headwinds
This report was previously named "Baltic Sea Report", now changed to "Nordic-Baltic Business Report". Your subscription was updated to the new report.• All Nordic and Baltic countries are enjoying a remarkably smooth and steady business cycle. • Th..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 6, 2019
Services PMI fell to 54.0 in April: Downward but signs of stabilization
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell for the second consecutive month, to 54.0 in April from 55.1 in March. A three-month moving average shows, however, that the index has stabilized in recent months a..
PMI Sweden
May 2, 2019
PMI dropped to 50.9 in April: Weak start to the second quarter
• The PMI fell to 50.9 in April compared with 52.5 in March. It was a broad decline with three of five sub-indexes contributing to the downturn. While this indicates a further slowdown in manufacturing activity, individual monthly outcomes should b..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 30, 2019
Annual GDP growth moderates to 2.8% in the first quarter
After two years of rapid growth, the economic expansion moderated at the beginning of 2019. In the first quarter, the annual GDP growth slowed to 2.8% (not seasonally and calendar adjusted) compared to 4.8% last year as a whole. The quarterly growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2019
Flash comment: Lithuania - April 30, 2019
The year is up to a good start. Economy expanded 3.9% annually in this first quarter of 2019. Meanwhile, season and calendar adjusted quarterly growth stood at 1%. Growth was supported by very solid domestic demand and still robust external perfor..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
April 11, 2019
Lower for longer
The global economic outlook remains muddy. The year has started with rising equity prices and falling interest rates. The drop in rates can be explained by lower growth prospects and dovish signals from central banks. The low rates seem to be here ..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 8, 2019
Annual inflation stood at 2.8% in March
In March headline inflation rose by 1.1% over the month, marking a relatively sharp increase in prices compared to March in previous years. Despite that annual inflation slightly eased in March to 2.8%. Both external and internal factors determined..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 8, 2019
Annual inflation rises to 2.6% in March
In March annual inflation rose to 2.6% up from 2.1%, while monthly inflation stood at 0.9%. Prices of goods were 2% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.3% (mostly due to rising costs of public services). Increase of monthly i..
Estonian Economy
April 8, 2019
Neighbouring countries’ impact on the Estonian economy is waning
Neighbouring countries' impact on the Estonian economy is waningFinland, Sweden, Latvia, and Russia – Estonian closest neighbours – contribute about one-fifth to Estonian GDP through exports.The share of the four neighbouring countries’ tourists’ e..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 3, 2019
Services PMI fell to 55.3 in March: Slowdown in the economy
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell in March to 55.3 from 55.8 in February. While the service sector is still in the growth zone, it has gradually lost momentum in recent quarters, says Jörgen Kennema..
PMI Sweden
April 1, 2019
PMI rose to 52.8 in March: Manufacturing activity stabilizes
• The PMI registered a marginal increase in March to 52.8 from 52.7 in February. This marks the second consecutive month that the index has risen, but in reality is more a sign that manufacturing activity has stabilized than that it has strengthene..
Macro Focus
March 15, 2019
What central banks can do to fight climate change
Climate change poses risks to financial stability and is thus within central banks’ mandates The Bank of England is in the lead; the Federal Reserve is farthest behind Central banks should step up research, improve disclosure and assess their own b..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 13, 2019
In the fourth quarter of 2018, the housing affordability index (HAI) increased in all Baltic capitals on annual basis
In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 10.4 points to 161.9 as rapid wage growth outweighed growing apartment prices and interest rates.In Riga, the HAI improved by 12 points to 191.7 as wage growth outpaced apartment price growth. For new-project and renovat..
Macro Focus
March 12, 2019
Small divergence in temperature
Economy heat index for all three economies stayed below long-run average All indicators showed rising temperatures in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania moved sideways Tight labour markets could potentially raise heat
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 5, 2019
Services PMI rose to 55.9 in February: Bright spots in the service sector
• Services PMI rose to 55.9 in February from 54.2 in January. It was a broad-based increase and means that service sector activity strengthened in February. The trend is still downward, however, despite bright spots, says Jörgen Kennemar, who is re..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 1, 2019
Wage growth remains rapid and broad-based
In 2018, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1310, up by 7.3%, in a year. The average gross wage increased in all sectors. The average wage was the highest in ICT and finance. A rapid growth in the average wage is supported by a shorta..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 1, 2019
Wage growth in 2018 fastest in decade
Last year the average gross wage recorded the fastest growth in ten years. It increased by 8.4%, reaching 1004 euros. It was boosted by minimum wage hike (from 380 euros to 430 euros) and tightening labour market. The unemployment rate is at a ten ..
PMI Sweden
March 1, 2019
PMI rose to 52.5 in February: Recovery from low level
• The PMI rose to 52.5 in February from 51.7 in January after having fallen two months in a row. It is positive that manufacturing activity strengthened in February, though from low levels. But at the same time production plans have become less opt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 1, 2019
After steady growth last year, looming risks ahead
In the second estimate of fourth quarter GDP, seasonally adjusted quarterly growth was revised down from 1.6 to 1.3. This resulted in 3.7% annual growth in fourth quarter and overall 3.4% real GDP expansion in 2018. Consumption remained the main d..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2019
Annual GDP growth was 4.8% in 2018
Annual GDP growth in Latvia was 4.8% in 2018. It was a tad stronger than in 2017, the fastest growth in seven years and the fastest growth among the Baltic countries in 2018. It means that income convergence with the neighbours as well as other EU ..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2019
Flash comment: Estonia - February 28, 2019
2018 - another strong economic year in EstoniaIn 2018, Estonian GDP growth slowed to 3.9% in real terms and to 8.6% in nominal terms and was supported by domestic demand and strong foreign demand. The growth was still strong and only slightly excee..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2019
Public sector leads the way in wage growth
The trends in earnings continued in fourth quarter of the 2018. Annual gross wage growth declined by 0.3pp to 9.7%. The gap in in growth rates between public and private sectors widened. Public sector wages grew 12.5% annually, while those of priva..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 22, 2019
Unemployment rate in 2018 at a 10-year low
Rapid economic growth in 2018 has translated into an even tighter labour market, exacerbating labour shortages and maintaining rapid wage growth. The labour market continued to improve in a rapid pace in 2018 despite unfavourable demographic trends..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 15, 2019
Employment rate reached the highest level ever
• In 2018, the employment rate increased even more and the unemployment rate dropped further. • According to Swedbank’s forecast, labour market should remain tight this year, so wage growth will stay rapid. Labour market remains tight Accord..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2019
Monthly inflation lower despite more expensive electricity
In January inflation eased to 1.7%, while monthly inflation stood at only 0.2% despite sharp increase in electricity prices. Interestingly, prices of public good and services increased by 5% while market prices increased only by 1.2% annually. Aver..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 8, 2019
Labour force has grown in 2018
Labour market continued to tap into previously underutilised groups of population. The tightness of the labour market incentivises companies to look for employees among the young and the elderly. Similarly, previously inactive people seem to be dra..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 5, 2019
Services PMI dropped to 54.1 in January: Weak start to 2019
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell for the second month in a row, to 54.1 in January from 55.8 in December. The slowdown in the service sector continued in the first month of the year, consolidating the down..
PMI Sweden
February 1, 2019
PMI falls to 51.5 in January: Manufacturing continues to slow
• The PMI fell in January to 51.5 from 51.8 in December, reaching the lowest level since February 2016. This means that manufacturing activity continued to slow in the first month of the year. The reason for increased caution going forward is the t..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 31, 2019
Annual GDP records strong 5% growth in Q4 2018
The economic growth remained very strong in Latvia at the end of last year. According to the flash estimate, the quarterly GDP growth slightly decelerated, recording still strong 1.1% (seasonally and calendar adjusted) growth, and the annual growth..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2019
A superb finish to a good year
Lithuanian economy grew at 3.5% (3.6% seasonally adjusted) annually in 2018, very much in line with our expectations. Economic expansion was supported by solid domestic consumption, active investments and surprisingly strong external sector in a wa..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 30, 2019
Political uncertainty cause global slowdown
Global growth is slowing. The key questions for 2019 are: How fast and how much will the global economy slow, and what will policymakers do to counteract the negative sentiments spreading across the globe? We forecast a relatively mild, and managea..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 11, 2019
Average annual inflation was 2.5% in 2018
Average annual inflation was 2.5% in 2018 driven largely by external factors. Transport and housing goods and services accounted for approximately half of the price growth, owing mainly to higher energy prices. Despite Brent crude oil price per bar..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 9, 2019
Annual inflation sharply decelerates in December
Due to the retreat in the oil prices and Christmas sales prices decreased by 0.6% in December and annual inflation dropped to 1.9%. Prices of goods were 1% higher than a year ago, while prices of services grew by 4.3%. Housing, electricity and fue..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 8, 2019
Inflation reached 3.4% in 2018
• Inflation amounted to 3.4% in December and for 2018 as a whole. • In 2019, price growth is expected to slow to 2.8% as energy prices should stabilise and the planned hike of the excise tax on alcohol is cancelled. Inflation stayed at 3.4% in 2..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 4, 2019
Services PMI dropped to 56.4 in December: Broad decline but still in the growth zone
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 56.4 in December from 61.1 in November and reached the second lowest level in 2018. It was a broad decline and a clear reversal after November’s strong numbers, says Jör..
PMI Sweden
January 2, 2019
PMI fell to 52.0 in December: Weak finish to 2018
• The PMI dropped in December to 52.0 from 55.4 in November, reaching the lowest level since the beginning of 2016. The December reading showed a broad decline and means that Swedish industrial activity lost momentum at the end of 2018, says Jörgen..
Macro Focus
December 19, 2018
Economic temperatures are converging in the Baltics
The Baltic economies will greet the New Year in a balanced state Lithuania cooled slightly, while Latvia and Estonia are catching up Tight labour markets could potentially raise heat
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 13, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in all three Baltic capitals in the third quarter of 2018
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 134.3 in Vilnius, 186.0 in Riga, and 154.3 in Tallinn. In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.8 points in the third quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as rapid wage growth outweighed gr..
Macro Focus
December 11, 2018
How much havoc could Brexit bring?
No matter Brexit outcome, trade with the UK will continue but the magnitude of it will depend on future agreement. Over time, however, supply chains and trade patterns could change, making it harder to predict flows of goods and services. If a Brex..
Flash comment: Latvia
December 10, 2018
Annual inflation at 3% in November
Annual inflation rate eased slightly in November to 3%, growing above 3% in the two preceding months. Prices of both goods and services also grew by 3% on annual basis. The main drivers of annual price growth in November were transport, housing and..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 5, 2018
Services PMI rose to 62.2 in November: New yearly high
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose by 5.8 points in November to 62.2 after having fallen four months in a row. It is too early, however, to determine whether conditions for service companies are going to str..
PMI Sweden
December 3, 2018
PMI rose to 56.7 in November: Expansion despite economic jitters
• The PMI rose in November to 56.7 from 55.0 in October, indicating a continued expansion in Swedish manufacturing. The outcome has to be seen as a show of strength against the backdrop of the lower PMI readings from the eurozone and other areas an..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2018
Economic growth accelerates to 4.2% yoy in the third quarter
In the third quarter, Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% yoy in real terms. Compared to the previous quarter GDP increased 0.4%, seasonally and working day corrected. In nominal terms, GDP increased 9.5% in the third quarter and 8.5% ytd.Econo..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2018
Annual GDP growth at 4.7% in the third quarter in Latvia
Revised data show slightly lower growth than the flash estimate suggested in the third quarter of 2018. GDP grew by 4.7% in annual terms while seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was even stronger at 5.3%. As growth in construction eased (10%..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 30, 2018
GDP revised upwards for the third quarter
As we expected, quarterly GDP growth has been revised up by one decimal point to -0.3% (SA) in the second GDP estimate. Annual growth has clocked in at 2.4%, two decimal points higher than reported initially. Season and calendar adjusted annual gro..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2018
Wage growth remains rapid and broad-based
In the third quarter, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1291, up by 7.5%, in a year. Median wage reached EUR 1000, +10.0%, over the year, according to the Tax Board. The average gross wage increased in all sectors, except for ad..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2018
Wage growth decelerated to 8% in Q3 in Latvia
In the third quarter, the average gross monthly wage was at 1006 euros, up by 8% compared to the same period a year ago. The wage growth was largely driven by pronounced labour shortage, minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year (by 50 euros),..
Macro Focus
November 27, 2018
Time to replace Merkel as leader of the center-right CDU
Top candidates provide different direction for CDU in the future The government parties struggle in polls, while the Greens party surges Whoever wins, the new leader will face tough political and economic decisions The battle to inherit Angela M..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 26, 2018
Rapid wage growth continues
Annual gross wage growth decelerated very slightly to 10% down from 10.5% a quarter ago. Private sector wage growth slowed to 9.3% from 10.4% annually. Meanwhile public sector wages accelerated further to 11.3% annually. Net wages increased by 9%, ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 16, 2018
Unemployment decline accelerated in Q3
• Unemployment rate down to 7% • Employment up by 1.9% annually • Number of economically active up by 0.2% annually • Labour shortages remain elevated Ongoing economic expansion continues driving demand for labour. Labour market conditions tigh..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2018
The shortage of labour keeps wage growth rapid
• The shortage of labour is on the same level as in the years of the previous economic boom.• During the next two years, according to Swedbank’s forecast, the gross wage growth should stay at 5-6%, employment rate will remain high and unemployment ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 9, 2018
Higher oil prices boost inflation
Annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in October compared to 2.4% in September. On a monthly basis prices grew by 0.6%. Core inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco accelerated to 1.9% up from 1.8%. The main factor determining price d..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 9, 2018
Employment continues rising
Despite the shrinking working-age population the labour market in Lithuania continues to surprise on the upside. The number of employed increased by 1.5%, compared to the same period a year ago, thanks largely to rising employment of men. The unemp..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 8, 2018
Slowdown, but not a downturn
The autumn of 2018 has been marked by financial market volatility in the presence of concerns that the next recession is getting closer. Most major economies have continued to grow at a decent pace, but political events cast doubt on the sustainabi..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 56.3 in October: Slowing expansion
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 56.3 in October from 56.6 in September. This means that the total index declined for the fourth consecutive month, reaching a new low for the year.• The sub-indexes for ..
PMI Sweden
November 1, 2018
PMI fell to 55.0 in October: Stabilization in the growth zone
• The PMI saw little change in October, falling 0.2 points to 55.0 compared with September. This means that the total index is still in the growth zone but at a lower level than the beginning of the year, signaling a slowing growth rate in the manu..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 30, 2018
Annual GDP growth at 4.8% in the third quarter
According to the flash estimate, Latvian economy expanded by 4.8% in Q3 compared to the same period in the previous year (seasonally and calendar unadjusted data). Quarterly growth was exceptionally strong at 1.8% (seasonally and calendar adjusted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2018
An unexpected slump in growth
Lithuanian economy disappointed in the third quarter of 2018. Annual GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% in the second quarter to 2.2% in the third. In seasonally and calendar adjusted terms, in the third quarter GDP increased by 2.7% annually and dec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 26, 2018
Nowcast points to faster GDP growth in Q3
The official GDP estimates come out with a substantial lag, but it is possible to determine the current level of economic activity using other indicators. Swedbank economists have developed a tool that allows to predict the current and near future ..
Macro Focus
October 16, 2018
The temperature is slowly rising in the Baltic economies
The Baltic economies are operating above their potential No overheating, but economic temperature is rising gradually Monitoring, fiscal prudence, and productivity-boosting reforms are necessary The Baltic economies are now fully recovered fro..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 8, 2018
Annual inflation surpasses 3% in September
Annual inflation exceeded 3% for the first time in more than a year, reaching 3.2% in September. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate in the past few months have been prices of goods. Categories with the largest contributions to the p..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 8, 2018
A slight pick up in price growth
Annual inflation has rebounded to 2.4% from 2.1% in August. Compared with August prices grew by 1.3%. Several main factors determined price growth recently. First of all, prices of energy products are increasing globally. Automobile fuel and solid ..
Flash comment: Estonia
October 5, 2018
Inflation remained above 3% in September
Inflation rate has fluctuated between 3% and 4% in recent months. Annual change in consumer prices amounted to 3.7% in September. Among different product groups, the prices of everyday essentials, i.e., housing, food, transport, have been contribut..
Latvian Economy
October 4, 2018
Latvia's labour market under pressure
Latvia’s labour market is showing some signs of overheating. Although competitiveness pressures are present, they are way below record highs seen in the pre-crisis period. The ongoing economic expansion has brought unemployment rate considerably..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 3, 2018
Services PMI fell to 56.6 in September: Downturn from high level
The purchasing manger's index for the service sector (Service PMI) fell to 56.6 in September from 57.1 in August. The September outcome means that the total index continued to decline in the third quarter and for the second quarter in a row, but re..
PMI Sweden
October 1, 2018
PMI rose to 55.2 in September: Manufacturing strength continues
• The PMI rose to 55.2 in September from 52.5 in August and means that the manufacturing sector remains in the growth zone, though at lower levels than at the beginning of 2018. The PMI has trended downward since the beginning of the year but stabi..
Macro Focus
September 21, 2018
Middle class in the Baltics
The Baltics get closer to the Western middle class income standard, but income inequality remains an issueA strong and well-off middle class, a sign of lower income inequality, important for economic growth Middle class incomes have grown substanti..
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