Swedbank Macro Research

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A list of the 50 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2018
Higher employment and lower unemployment rate
• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2018
Inflation at 4% in January and is set to ease this year
Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 12, 2018
Annual headline inflation at 2.0% in the first month of 2018
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 09, 2018
Flash comment: Lithuania - February 9, 2018
The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 05, 2018
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in January: Begins 2018 at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 61.3 in January from 64.6 in December. The Services PMI clearly remains at a high level, however, which means that the economic indicator suggests that 2018 has started ..
PMI Sweden
February 01, 2018
PMI fell to 57.0 in January: Despite dip, 2018 begins strongly
• The PMI fell to 57.0 in January. This is 3.4 points lower than in December, which means that the new year began with a decline. Despite the downturn, the index remains at a high level. The sub-index for new orders was the largest negative contrib..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2018
GDP growth still strong, but slows to 4.2% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2018
Solid GDP growth to mark the end of a year
Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 24, 2018
Global growth – impressive so far, pitfalls ahead
As we enter 2018, the outlook for global growth is on a stronger footing. Euro area growth keeps improving, while the US has kept up speed. Emerging mar-kets are enjoying a positive momentum. The global cyclical upswing benefits the Nordic and Balt..
Macro Focus
January 24, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda
Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 10, 2018
Average annual inflation at 2.9% in 2017
After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 09, 2018
Average annual inflation at 3.7% in 2017
Annual inflation decelerated to 3.9% in December, while in monthly terms, consumer prices did not change. Annual growth in the prices of both, goods and services, eased towards the end of the year, to 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively. The dissipating..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 08, 2018
Inflation accelerated to 3.4% in 2017
Inflation picked up last year due to higher commodity prices and an increase in excise tax rates. Higher excise taxes added 0.9 percentage point to inflation in 2017. Among different products and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages cont..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 04, 2018
Services PMI rose to 64.6 in December: Record-high finish to 2017
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 64.6 in December. This is 2.7 points higher than in November. The December reading was the highest in 2017. The sub-index for business volumes contributed the most toget..
PMI Sweden
January 02, 2018
PMI fell to 60.4 in December: Despite decline, a strong finish
• The PMI fell to 60.4 in December, which is 2.9 points lower than in November. The index remains at a high level, however. Employment produced the biggest negative contribution to the PMI at 1.3 points, followed by the sub-index for new orders, wh..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 19, 2017
Housing affordability remains high in all three Baltic capitals in the third quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 148.6 in Tallinn, 177.2 in Riga, and 124.8 in Vilnius.In Tallinn, affordability increased by 2.9 point in the third quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as apartment price gro..
Macro Focus
December 14, 2017
With faster growth comes faster inflation
• Baltics at the top of EU 28 price growth as economic growth accelerates • Rapid wage growth is a blessing and a curse – notable service price increases in Lithuania and Estonia • Winter is not coming to Latvia – service inflation to heat up
Macro Focus
December 11, 2017
Bitcoin – another bubble or a monetary revolution?
Why did cryptocurrencies appreciate so much this year? Initial Coin Offering (ICO) – cheaper IPO, or a letter from the Nigerian prince? The future is likely to be shaped by regulators, not aficionados
Flash comment: Latvia
December 08, 2017
Annual inflation slowly retreats
For the third month in a row inflation slowly recedes. In November, annual inflation rate was 2.7%. Despite retreating inflation, it is considerably higher than a year before. In the eleven months of this year, annual average inflation was 3.0% (fo..
Flash comment: Lithuania
December 08, 2017
Inflation lingers at 4.4% annually
Annual inflation has not changed from October to November and was at 4.4%. Prices grew 0.3% month over month in November. Meanwhile, average annual inflation reached 3.5%. Prices of goods in annual terms grew 4%, while services price growth eased..
Baltic Sea Region Report
December 06, 2017
Heart-warming growth is a poor excuse to postpone reforms
• Growth at its cyclical peak • Productivity is the key to income convergence in the Baltics • Sustainable development – where do we stand? • Universal basic income – utopia or an urgent necessity? Growth at its cyclical peak The upswing in global ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 05, 2017
Services PMI rose to 61.8 in November – stays at high levels
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.8 in November, 0.4 points higher than in October. The sub-index for new orders contributed 1.3 points to the increase in the Services PMI, while other sub-indices con..
PMI Sweden
December 01, 2017
PMI rose to 63.3 in November: Manufacturing on overdrive
• The PMI rose to 63.3 in November, which is 4.0 points higher than in October and the third highest reading this year. New orders were the biggest contributor to the PMI at just over two points, followed by the contribution from the sub-index for ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2017
GDP growth at the top speed of the cycle
The real GDP growth was confirmed at 5.8% YoY (nsa) – the fastest growth since 2012! Most likely, it is the fastest pace of growth within this business cycle. The quarterly growth was at 1.5% (swda). The size of the economy is close to the pre-cris..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2017
Robust GDP growth continued in 3Q2017 as expected
In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to the growth comes from t..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2017
Wage growth remained rapid in Q3
• Wage growth remains relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by around 5% and the real net wage by close to 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2017
Slightly slower but still rapid wage growth in Q3
• Annual gross monthly wage growth at 7.5% in Q3 as labour market tightens • Wages up in almost all sectors • Payroll tax cuts and minimum wage hike to give additional boost to wage growth next year After surging 8.7% in the second quarter, the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 24, 2017
Wage growth slows as minimum wage effect fades
Annual wage growth slowed down to 7.2% in the third quarter. The waning effect of minimum monthly wage increases was the main reason for the slowdown. Wage growth was also dragged down by sluggish wage growth in the public sector. Its wages grew..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2017
Higher GDP growth lifts demand for labour
• The employment rate reached the highest level in 20 years. • The unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. Higher economic activity reflects in the developments in the labour market. In the third quarter, employment grew by 2.0%, the number of une..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 10, 2017
Unemployment down to 6.6%, but employment declines in Q3
The unemployment rate declined to 6.6% in the third quarter of this year and was 0.9 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained flat at 76.1% and thus did not alleviate the negative effect of the shrinking working age population on the labour..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 09, 2017
The start of descent for inflation
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in October, while annual inflation decelerated to 4.4%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3.3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods decelerated from 4,4% in September to 4% in October. ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 09, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update - November 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook presents the latest economic forecasts for Sweden, the Nordic and Baltic countries and the major global economies. In this update, current issues that have a bearing on economic developments are analysed. Global – Strong ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 03, 2017
Services PMI fell to 61.4 in October: Second highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell from 63.8 in September to 61.4 in October. All sub-indices except employment negatively contributed to the Services PMI. New orders were the biggest reason for the drop in ..
PMI Sweden
November 02, 2017
PMI fell to 59.3 in October but stays at a high level
• The PMI fell to 59.3 in October, a decrease of 4.4 points compared with September, which was the second highest level so far this year. The sub-index for new orders was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by production. Individual mo..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 30, 2017
Strong GDP growth surpasses all expectations
In the third quarter 2017, Latvian real GDP expanded 5.8% YoY nsa (up 1.5% QoQ swda). It is the fastest rate of growth since 2012, and in terms of volume GDP is about back to its pre-crisis level of 2017. Growth is broad across all sectors with con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2017
GDP growth weakens, probably temporary
In the third quarter of this year GDP was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Seasonally and working day adjusted annual growth was 3.4%, while quarterly growth was a meagre 0.1%. This is markedly slower growth than during the first two quarters of this y..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 09, 2017
Inflation picks up to 4.8% in September
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 1% in September, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.8%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods accelerated from 3.8% in August to 4.4% in September. ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 04, 2017
Services PMI rose to 63.8 in September: Highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 63.8 in September from 55.5 in August. The gains were broad, with positive contributions from all sub-indices. The increase in new orders, which was the biggest contribu..
PMI Sweden
October 02, 2017
PMI rose to 63.7 in September – second highest level so far in 2017
• The PMI rose by 9.0 points to 63.7 in September, compared with 54.7 in August, the second highest level so far this year. The production index was the biggest contributor to increase, followed by new orders. Individual months should be interprete..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 14, 2017
The housing affordability index improved in all three Baltic capitals in the second quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 159.9 in Tallinn, 183.5 in Riga, and 129.4 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, affordability increased by 0.2 point in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as wage growth gained ..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 09, 2017
Price growth picks up again in August
As we expected a slowdown in inflation rate in July was temporary. In August annual price growth picked up again and was 3.1%. Food prices contributed the most to inflation growth in August. Among food prices, butter has been in the spotlight rec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
September 08, 2017
Annual inflation accelerates to 4.4% in August
In monthly terms, consumer prices remained stable, however, annual inflation surged to 4.4% in August. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.6%. The effect of increased excise duties on alcohol is still observed, however the effect..
Macro Focus
September 08, 2017
Poorer than their parents: the struggles of Europe's young
Hit most by great recession and rising house pricesUpcoming challenges: population ageing and tech revolution Negative effects on growth, public finances, and political stability In some respects, the current young Europeans can be thought of as..
PMI Sweden Service sector
September 05, 2017
Services PMI fell to 55.4 in August: Still high despite decline
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) dropped to a still high 55.4 in August from 58.9 in July. The decline was broad with negative contributions from all sub-indices. New orders, which posted the biggest negative con..
PMI Sweden
September 01, 2017
PMI dropped to 54.7 in August – lowest level to date in 2017
The PMI fell by 5.6 points to 54.7 in August, compared with 60.3 in July. Production was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by new orders. Both contributed negatively by more than two points each. All sub-indices contributed negativel..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 31, 2017
Economy records a rapid 4% annual growth two quarters in a row
In the second quarter the real GDP increased by 4% (not seasonally adjusted) year on year (YoY), recording the same growth rate as in the first quarter. The pick-up was seen in almost all sectors, except finance and insurance, and operations with r..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2017
Economic growth in 2Q was the fastest of the last six years: 5.7% yoy
We expected continued robust GDP growth in the second quarter, but 5.7% yoy (1.3% qoq swda) was above expectations. As inflation has picked up, GDP nominal growth accelerated to 10.2% yoy. Statistics Estonia revised up GDP levels and growth rates o..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 30, 2017
Tight labour market lifts wages
• Wage growth will remain relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Nevertheless, the gap between wage and productivity growth rates will narrow this year. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in the second q..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 29, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook August 2017
Economic prospects are bright in advanced economies: the euro area is grow-ing rapidly while the US economy shows signs of maturing. Emerging markets have good conditions for a continued recovery. Political risks in Europe have subsided, but populi..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 25, 2017
Wage growth remained strong in Q2
Nominal gross wages growth decelerated only slightly to 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 6% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth in private sector continued exceeding that of the public se..

Please note that in 2014 the publication "Global Economy" changed name to "Macro Focus".

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