Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Flash comment: Latvia
July 8, 2020
In June, prices down by 0.7%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.3% The spread of coronavirus in Latvia is well controlled and the restrictions introduced in March were eased quite quickly. Therefore, the situation with price changes is starting to stabil..
Macro Focus
July 6, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Global daily cases continue to climb
The epidemicGlobal daily cases continue to climb, and total cases near 11.5 million. Currently, infections continue to rise by around 1 million per week.New cases remain overall steady in Europe, but the rise in new cases continues in South Africa,..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 49.2 in June: Big jump after the spring swoon
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) registered 49.2 in June after an upward revision to 41.6 in May. Since bottoming out in April, the index has risen 9.5 points, indicating that the slump in the service s..
PMI Sweden
July 1, 2020
PMI rose to 47.3 in June – rebound after the spring swoon
• The PMI rose in June by 7.3 points to 47.3 from an upward revision of 40.0 in May. This means that a large share of the index’s spring decline has been recouped, indicating that the trough in manufacturing activity has been passed. The big increa..
Macro Focus
June 29, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: The epidemic continues to escalate in the US
The epidemicThe pandemic continues to accelerate on a global scale. On Sunday, the total number of people to test positive for Covid-19 worldwide passed 10 million.The epidemic continues to escalate in the US. More testing can´t explain the total i..
Macro Focus
June 23, 2020
Euro area PMIs. A very deep V in growth rates
Composite PMI bounce back to bounce back to 47.5Manufacturing remains more subdued Services improve markedly as countries re-open Euro area had not quite returned to the growth territory in June, but the survey results give optimism that dama..
Macro Focus
June 23, 2020
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators show more progress is needed. Will EU’s recovery fund help in reaching targets?
Environmental protection area remains pivotal in speeding up progress – no country is on track to meet environmental goals in UN 2030 Agenda. All Nordic countries perform well on governance and institutions, whereas the Baltics have a lot of catchi..
Macro Focus
June 22, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Europe starts to reopen borders
The epidemic § According to the head of WHO, the pandemic is accelerating on a global scale. On Sunday, the WHO reported a record increase in global coronavirus cases.
Macro Focus
June 18, 2020
Rail Baltica lifts construction volumes
The construction of the new railway will have a substantial impact on the Baltic economies,boosting demand for construction materials and services, even when many goods and services are imported. The new fast railway line from Estonia’s capital to ..
Macro Focus
June 18, 2020
Fixing the EU, again
Finally, there is a will to create a fiscal capacity at EU levelThe ECB will remain the most important EU institutionProblematic setup for countries like Sweden, that fall in between if integration deepens Yet again Europe is in crisis manag..
Macro Focus
June 15, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Europe starts to reopen borders
Starting from today, this comment will be published only on Mondays. The epidemicGlobally, new cases still seem to have an upward trend.Cases in Europe are slowly declining and remain stable in Russia. The overall trend of new cases is still quite ..
Macro Focus
June 12, 2020
Swedbank’s card data see Baltic consumers nearing pre-crisis spending levels
Since week12 – the start of the emergency situation in all the Baltics – card transactions in the Baltics have fallen by 15%. Card spending has fallen by 8% and cash withdrawal by 22% YoY, with the sharpest fall in Estonia, and a less pronounced dr..
Macro Focus
June 12, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Finland allows free travel to all Nordics, except Sweden
The epidemicGlobally recorded cases per week have continued to increase, driven by developing countries.Europe, US, and Russia generally continue to show stability, and increased testing may cover actual improvements in underlying trends in many pl..
Macro Focus
June 11, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Concern mounts over second wave in the US
The epidemicCase growth rates remain high in India and Brazil. Case growth remains stubbornly fast in large parts of Latin America, which the WHO highlighted as a deep concern.Europe’s growth rate has fallen below 0.5% and data continues to look br..
Macro Focus
June 10, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden’s hospital data continues to signal stability
The epidemicGlobal cases have continued to trend up. Cases remain stable in the US and slowly declining in Europe. Russia has seen a small decline in trend.South Asia and Latin America continue to drive cases. Infections continue to grow fast in So..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 10, 2020
Will high affordability save the market?
At the start of 2020, the housing market in the Baltics was still unfazed by the pandemic. Overall housing affordability was high in all the capitals. However, housing affordability in Tallinn and Vilnius decreased in the first quarter, compared wi..
Macro Focus
June 9, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Continued fast case growth in South Asia
The epidemicNew cases remain stable in Russia and the US and continued to decline slightly in the EU.Fast case growth has continued in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Hospitals in Pakistan have warned that they are running out of beds and respirat..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 8, 2020
Deflation is here: Prices down by 0.6%
Prices of goods fell by 1.6% Prices of services rose by 1.8% Despite the signs of weakness prices of services maintained the positive rate of change. But prices of goods plunged deeper in the negative area. Prices of transport decreased significant..
Macro Focus
June 8, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Swedish data remains concerning but experts point at testing
The epidemicNew cases in Europe declined slightly over the weekend, with fewer cases in the UK and France, among others. Poland reported an acceleration in case growth, however.While cases in the US have remained stable, US deaths have continued to..
Macro Focus
June 5, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden to start large scale testing and free domestic travel
The epidemicStability continued in the US, Europe, and Russia.Cases continued to rise in Brazil and the rest of the world, mostly Latin America and South Asia, India is now about in par with Russia in their number of daily recorded cases.The WHO’s ..
Macro Focus
June 4, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Disappointing results from Chinese vaccine trial
The epidemicDaily cases continue to be led by fast growth in many countries in Latin America, South Asia and the Middle East. Cases trend in Europe declined slightly, driven by fewer cases in France and the UK. Germany’s reproduction rate has again..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 3, 2020
Services PMI rose to 40.9 in May: Economic decline eased slightly
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) turned slightly higher in May to 40.9 from 39.0 in April after a big decline in March and April. Although the worst is probably now over for the Services PMI, there aren..
Macro Focus
June 3, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Sweden’s deaths per capita remain high
The epidemicDaily cases remained stable in Europe. The increase in cases in France was related to a methodology change and daily cases there have now stabilised.Both new cases and deaths have stabilised in the US, showing slow progress, although a ..
Macro Focus
June 2, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Concerning signs in European and Swedish data
The epidemicData shows continued stability in Russia and the US. Brazil still accounted for the most cases.Data from Europe, where the declining trend in daily cases has ceased, rises some concerns: recorded cases have continued to trend up in Fran..
PMI Sweden
June 1, 2020
PMI rose to 39.2 in May – Economic slowdown eases
• The PMI rose to 39.2 in May from 36.4 in April after having fallen by a total of 16.5 points in March and April. This means that the downturn in Swedish manufacturing industry has slowed. While it is still too early to say whether a bottom has be..
Macro Focus
June 1, 2020
Coronavirus briefing: Denmark and Norway open travel, leaving out Sweden
The epidemicDaily cases in Brazil passed the US. Cases in Europe edged up with an increase in France.Stability in Russia and the US while cases in the rest of the world show exponential growth.The number of patients in intensive care in the largest..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 29, 2020
Latvia: private consumption dragged down Q1 GDP
GDP down in Q1 2020 by 1.5% YoY, and 2.9% QoQ Growth dragged down by private consumption Value added fell the most in transport as well as arts and recreationThe second reading of GDP figures was little changed from the flash estimate.Swedbank expe..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2020
The steep decline in taxes contracted Estonian GDP in the first quarter
In Estonia, GDP contracted 0.7% yoy (non-adjusted) and 3.7% qoq (seasonally and working day adjusted) in 1QThe steep fall in VAT and excise taxes contributed negatively, while the gross value added increased 2% yoy. There were more economic activit..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 28, 2020
Lavia: Labour market gets first coronavirus’ chills in Q1
Labour market weakened, unemployment rate up to 7.4% in Q1Wage growth moderated to 6.6% y/y in Q1, led by the private sectorWeaker developments expected in Q2Although the virus containment measures were in force for just a couple of weeks, labour m..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 27, 2020
Previously rapid wage growth stalls in Estonia this year
• Wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in Q1. • Swedbank expects wages to grow by only 0.5% this year. Wage growth decelerated in the first quarter Gross wage growth decelerated to 4.8%, over the year, in the first quarter. The averag..
Nordic-Baltic Business Report
May 26, 2020
Well prepared to take on the challenge
The Nordic and Baltic economies will be hard hit by the Covid-19-induced shock due to their small size and relative openness.Strong economic fundamentals and a timely reaction to the health crisis ensure that the countries are in an advantageous po..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2020
The unemployment rate should peak this autumn
• Labour market figures were still strong before the crisis. • Data has deteriorated rapidly since March. Corona crisis did not affect Q1 data Q1 labour market survey was carried out between January and March, i.e. before the crisis hit. Therefo..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
May 13, 2020
In the midst of the Corona crisis – the bottom has likely been reached
The development of the coronavirus remains a key factor shaping the economy, although focus has shifted somewhat towards exit strategies and post-pandemic stimulus. Compared to our previous forecast almost two months ago, the lockdowns have becom..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 12, 2020
Annual inflation 0%
Prices of goods fell by 0.8% Prices of services rose by 2.1% Fuel prices and prices of housing related services pulled inflation down. Fuel prices followed global oil prices and were down by 20%. Housing related services were cheaper due to previou..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 6, 2020
Services PMI fell to 39.0 in April: Another big drop in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell to 39.0 in April from a downward revision of 46.1 in March, which is the lowest level since the recession year 2009. Taken together, the index fell by just over 17 ..
PMI Sweden
May 4, 2020
PMI fell to 36.7 in April – Economic downturn deepens
• The PMI fell 5.9 points to 36.7 in April from a downward revision of 42.6 in March, which is the lowest level since the recession year 2009. This means that Swedish manufacturing industry is continuing to rapidly contract in the wake of the coron..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 30, 2020
Latvia: the worst is yet to come
GDP in Q1 declined by 1.4% following an already unimpressive performance at the end of 2019. The drop versus the previous quarter was a substantial 2.9%.
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2020
Limited damage so far
Lithuanian GDP contracted -0.2 % in quarterly terms Overall, despite everything, economy expanded 2.6 % y/y Second quarter will bear the brunt of the damage The global pandemic has affected Lithuanian growth and derailed a trend of strong expans..
Macro Focus
April 29, 2020
Nordic Macro Monthly: Small economies get even smaller
Historical drops in GDP in the Nordics while unemployment surges Private consumption takes a deep hit due to containment measures Special theme: Temporary layoffs mitigate the effect on the labour markets
Macro Focus
April 27, 2020
ECB preview: “We are here to reduce the spreads”
The ECB needs to tell markets there is no limit to the asset purchasesPossible that ECB announces it can buy recently downgraded junk bonds Recent macroeconomic data, notably PMIs, has illustrated an unprecedented shock felt by manufacturing and s..
Macro Focus
April 24, 2020
Consumer Spending Observer in the Baltics
Swedbank’s card data shows a sharp decline in spending and cash withdrawals. Data until April 19 shows a major contraction in card transactions since the announcement of emergency situations in the Baltics. Week 11, when the COVID-19 crisis was a..
Flash comment: Latvia
April 8, 2020
Inflation 1.4% is twice less than a year before
Annual inflation 1.4% in March.Prices of services grew faster than prices of goods.Weaker price growth in March 2020 was a result of broad range of obstacles, e.g., falling price of Brent oil that resulted in lower price of fuel, reduced tariffs of..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 7, 2020
Weaker economic activity lowers inflation
• Annual inflation reached 0.9% in March in Estonia. • In 2020, we expect inflation to amount to 0.8%, or even 0.4%, if we include lower excise taxes proposed by the government. Compared to February, consumer prices declined by 0.7%. Annual inf..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 3, 2020
Services PMI fell to 46.9 in March: Rapid drop in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) fell to 46.9 in March from 56.4 in February. This is the largest monthly decline in the index’s 15-year history, and it is now at the lowest level since 2012. The decrea..
Macro Focus
April 3, 2020
On the way out of the virus
Economic recovery can only really start once we get the virus under control. There is a wide range of different avenues being explored in an attempt to fight the pandemic – developing a vaccine, finding the drugs, devising new antigen and antibody ..
PMI Sweden
April 1, 2020
PMI fell to 43.2 in March – record-fast slowdown in industry
• The PMI fell in March by 9.5 points to 43.2 from a downward revision of 52.7 in February. This is the biggest monthly decrease in the PMI’s history of over 25 years and is a clear sign that the coronavirus’s effects on Swedish industry are being ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 25, 2020
Economies are in freefall – unprecedented economic measures are likely
The spread of the coronavirus is paralysing the world’s economies and many countries are heading for a recession. Governments announce new support packages daily, while central banks do whatever it takes to calm financial markets. The economic-poli..
Macro Focus
March 24, 2020
Euro area short comment: Germany PMIs – down the Mariana trench
Services dive 18 points Manufacturing drops only 2.3 points The longer lockdowns in Europe continue the harder it will be to bounce back The PMI flash estimate followed yesterdays’ European consumer confidence and dived hard. PMI survey result..
Macro Focus
March 19, 2020
ECB launched massive 750 bn € crisis purchase program
This is a good start and will reduce sovereign spreads, but is still not enough • ECB more flexible with capital key • In 2020 purchases might exceed I trillion € ECB tonight launched a massive addition to its current QE purchases underlining th..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 17, 2020
Housing remains and is likely to stay affordable
In the final quarter of 2019, all three Baltic capitals saw somewhat different trends. In Tallinn, housing affordability fell as the average price of apartments accelerated and net wage growth weakened due to the previous year’s tax reform. Housing..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 9, 2020
Annual inflation was 2.3%
Consumer price growth remained moderate in February. Annual inflation was 2.3%, while monthly inflation was 0.1%. Price changes were defined by global obstacles. In February, food prices experienced sharp increase and were driving annual inflation ..
Macro Focus
March 9, 2020
Too much money for too little demand in euro area?
The increased current account surplus and the widening gap between savings and investments have contributed to the fall in interest rates in the euro area.The government sector has had the largest impact on the increased gap, as the austerity polic..
Macro Focus
March 6, 2020
Corona hits the Nordics and Baltics
Read the full analysis/report here (pdf)Limited effects on growth and labour markets so far but with a continued and broadened spread of the virus the economic consequences will be large. GDP growth expected to be 0.4-0.8 percentage points lower in..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 4, 2020
Services PMI rose to 56.7 in February: Growth but dark clouds threaten
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) increased in February to 56.7 from an upward revision of 53.2. This is the highest reading since autumn 2018 and indicates increased activity in the service sector. Howe..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 3, 2020
Wage growth should ease in 2020
Wage growth remained relatively rapid and broad-based in the fourth quarter. Statistics Estonia’s wage data showed a slowdown in the annual growth rate of the full-time-equivalent average gross wage (+6.4%, over the year) in Q4 2019, mostly due to ..
PMI Sweden
March 2, 2020
PMI rose to 53.2 in February – recovery despite Corona jitters
• The PMI rose in February to 53.2 from an upward revision of 52.0 in January. This is the highest level in 15 months and was mainly helped by longer delivery times. While the impact of the coronavirus on Swedish industry is not yet evident in the ..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2020
Annual GDP growth was 2.2% in 2019
Against the backdrop of softening global economy and high uncertainty, as well as sector specific factors, Latvian economic growth slowed considerably in 2019 – from 4.3% in 2018 to an estimated 2.2% last year. This was broadly in line with our for..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2020
Last year’s economic growth surprised on the upside
Last year's economic growth surprised on the upsideIn 2019, Estonian GDP growth was 4.3% y/y in real terms and 7.7% y/y in nominal terms. Although, the growth slowed from previous year, it was still strong and exceeded our expectations – our foreca..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2020
Solid wage gains despite global weakness
Gross wages grew 8.8% last year Public sector wage growth was markedly stronger Women’s wages grow 1.5pp faster Lithuanian labour market seems unfazed by any global worries. Despite weak growth in EMU earnings growth in Lithuania maintained soli..
Macro Focus
February 21, 2020
Euro Area PMIs - Hopes for 1st quarter bounce clouded by virus
Both services and industry improve marginally in Euro areaGerman manufacturing improves sharply, but is still in contraction territory France activity improves as protests subside PMI flash estimate came out stronger than most expected given the g..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 16, 2020
Labour market set a new record in 2019
• Labour market indicators were very strong at the end of last year. • This year, we expect economic growth to slow and labour market to cool down a bit. Another employment record in the fourth quarter According to Statistics Estonia, in the fou..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 11, 2020
Annual headline inflation at 2.2% in the first month of 2020
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0.4%, and annual inflation rate was at 2.2%. Prices of goods grew by 2% on annual basis, and prices of services by 2.7%. The main drivers of annual inflation in January were transport, food, alcohol and to..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 7, 2020
Labour market continued improving
Annual employment (15-64 years) grew by 0.6 ppUnemployment rate increased by 0.2 pp to 6.4%78.4% of people, aged 15-64, were economically active in Q4, 2019 Solid economic expansion in 2019 fuelled the demand for labour – annual employment grew by ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 5, 2020
Services PMI rose to 52.5 in January: Back to the growth zone
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) increased in January by 3.4 points to 52.5 compared with December, putting it back in the growth zone. While the Services PMI is still lower than normal, the downward tr..
PMI Sweden
February 3, 2020
PMI rose to 51.5 in January – more signs of manufacturing recovery
• The PMI rose in January to 51.5 from 47.7 in December. It is the first time since August that the index is back in the growth zone. Signs of a recovery in Swedish manufacturing have increased at the start of 2020 in the wake of a brighter global ..
Macro Focus
January 31, 2020
Disappointing Euro area data for the final quarter of the decade
Euro area quarterly growth has been disappointing at barely 0.1%. It confirmed our forecast that EA economy expanded 1.2% in 2019 – the slowest pace since 2013. The data for the last quarter was mixed overall. France and Italy surprised on the down..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 21, 2020
A temporary thaw or a true spring?
The global economy can temporarily catch its breath; a cautious optimism can be seen. Sweden’s economic performance is also expected to be decent, although growth is slowing down and unemployment is rising.
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 21, 2020
Decent economic performance despite decline – but investments are needed
The global economy can temporarily catch its breath; a cautious optimism can be seen. Sweden’s economic performance is also expected to be decent, although growth is slowing down, and unemployment is rising.
Macro Focus
January 15, 2020
Economy Heat Index: No fever in the Baltics
Solid but sustainable growthDespite long expansion excesses have been avoided For small extremely open economies it is crucial to avoid significant imbalances The temperature of Baltic economies has not changed significantly over the past year. Eco..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 8, 2020
Inflation should remain moderate this year
Inflation was relatively weak at the end of last year, given the rapid growth in wages and other income. Inflation was moderate due to weak external price pressures and lower excise tax rates on alcohol. In December, inflation amounted to just 1.8%..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 7, 2020
Services PMI rose to 48.7 in December: Recovery from low level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) reached 48.7 in December, compared with 47.9 in November. It is the first time since August that the index rose. While four months in a row outside the growth zone shows..
PMI Sweden
January 2, 2020
PMI rose to 47.1 in December – Weak manufacturing activity continued
• The PMI rose in December to 47.1 from 45.7 in November. This marks the fourth month in a row that the index is outside the growth zone and means that activity in Swedish industry has continued to decline even though the downturn slowed in Decembe..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 1, 2020
Ending the decade on high note
Lithuanian GDP expanded 3.9% in 2019 A very strong final quarter. Economy grew 1.3% in quarterly terms (season and calendar adjusted) This year and decade growth will be slower Defying all expectations Lithuanian growth accelerated to 3.9% up fo..
Macro Focus
December 16, 2019
Strong Lithuanian exports despite global weaknesses. What‘s the recipe?
Weak global trade and escalating trade tensions did not significantly affect Lithuanian exports, which grew by 7.3% during the first 10 months of 2019. Manufacturing, in general, and furniture, in particular, experiencing strong and consistent grow..
Estonian Economy
December 13, 2019
The Estonian Economy - The construction sector will not contribute to economic growth this year
The construction sector will not contribute to economic growth this yearAfter three consecutive years of strong contribution to economic growth, the construction sector is not supporting economic growth this year.Labour shortages in construction ha..
Macro Focus
December 11, 2019
UK election: Tory victory is likely but hung parliament could persist
Deal with Tory majority, referendum with Labour win, but hard to guess with Tory minorityOpinion polls suggest a Tory victory, but they should be taken with a grain of saltTactical votes - another complicating factor but probably few in number On ..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 10, 2019
In the third quarter of 2019, the housing affordability index (HAI) increased in Vilnius, but decreased in Tallinn and Riga
In Tallinn, the HAI plunged by 5.7 points in the third quarter of 2019, compared with the third quarter of 2018, and ended at 148.5, as net wage growth was slightly slower than an increase in apartment prices and interest rates. In Riga, the HAI lo..
Flash comment: Latvia
December 9, 2019
In Latvia, annual inflation is the lowest since April 2018
In Latvia, annual inflation fell to 2.1% in November 2019, and was the lowest since April 2018. The average inflation this year (in 11 months) counted around 2.9%. In November, the growth of commodity prices continued to slow down (1.8%), whi..
Macro Focus
December 6, 2019
Water, water everywhere and not a drop to drink?
Since 2018 repo rates started hovering above the target band It indicates pressures building up in the money markets due to the lack of excess reserves Shortage is exacerbated around quarter and year-ends when a lot of funds are moved around
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 4, 2019
Services PMI fell to 47.9 in November: Weaker activity than normal
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) dropped in November for the third month in a row to 47.9 from 49.4 in October. The decrease in the index means that service sector activity is continuing to decline in t..
PMI Sweden
December 2, 2019
PMI dropped to 45.4 in November: Manufacturing continues to slide
• The PMI fell in November to 45.4 from 46.0 in October. Manufacturing activity continued to decline for the third consecutive month to levels we have not seen since 2012, and there are no clear signs yet of a turnaround even though production plan..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2019
Annual GDP growth was 2.9% in Q3 2019
The rather solid economic growth of 2.9% in Q3 2019 looks somewhat weaker when the data are corrected for the number of working days, resulting in a less optimistic 1.9% year-on-year figure. A key contributor, rather surprisingly, given the ..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2019
Robust economic expansion continued in the third quarter
Estonia’s GDP grew 4.1% y/y and 1.0% q/q (seasonally and calendar adjusted) in the third quarter this year. Non-adjusted annual growth was 4.2% in real terms and 7.3% in nominal terms. The growth was above our expectations. Economic growth is contr..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 29, 2019
Still waiting for Godot i.e. Slowdown
Annual growth revised up to 3.7% Household consumption growth is slowing moderately Agriculture bounced back as expected and grew by 11% Both annual and quarterly growth was revised upwards by 0.1pp. Domestic demand remained robust, however hous..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 28, 2019
Rapid wage growth continued
Wage growth remained rapid and broad-based in the third quarter. The average full-time-equivalent gross wage amounted to EUR 1,397, up by 8.2%, over the year. Tax Authority’s gross median wage amounted to EUR 1,100, up by 10% in a year. Wage grow..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 26, 2019
Wages unexpectedly accelerate again
Gross wage growth increased to 9.2% Public sector wages grew an impressive 12.2% Private sector annual wage growth recovered to 8% up form 6.3% in the second quarter Data for both economic growth and labour market have been more tepid than expec..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 15, 2019
Lower economic growth is expected to cool the labour market
New record According to Statistics Estonia, in the 3rd quarter, the unemployment rate decreased even further to a record-low 3.9%. The estimated number of the employed reached 677,000, the highest number since at least the re-independence (earlier..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 8, 2019
Annual inflation in October at 2.3%
In October, the annual rate of inflation softened comparing to higher rates in previous months. The annual inflation rate in October was 2.3%, with goods’ prices rising only by 1.9%, and services’ prices rising by 3%. Annual inflation was driven by..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 8, 2019
Gloomy labour market data
Labour market data has disappointed in the 3rd quarter of 2019. While unemployed stayed flat compared to previous quarter, it was 0.5 percentage point (pp) higher than a year ago. Weakness is observed across most labour market indicators. Number of..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 7, 2019
Rays of light in dark November skies
The global economy is losing momentum, which is affecting the Swedish economy. But the economic situation is fragmented and not everything is pitch-black. More expansionary fiscal policy, such as e.g. investments related to climate and welfare, can..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 7, 2019
Rays of light in dark November skies
The global economy is losing momentum, which is affecting the Swedish economy. But the economic situation is fragmented and not everything is pitch-black. More expansionary fiscal policy, such as e.g. investments related to climate and welfare, can..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 5, 2019
Services PMI fell to 49.5 in October: Cooler service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) dropped in October to 49.5 from 49.8 in September, which is a smaller decline than the previous month. That the Services PMI is below the 50 mark for the second month in..
PMI Sweden
November 1, 2019
PMI dropped to 46.0 in October: Weak conditions persist
• The PMI fell marginally in October to 46.0 from 46.1 in September. This marks the second month in a row that the index is outside the growth zone and at levels that have not been seen since the end of 2012. It shows that growth in Swedish industr..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 31, 2019
GDP growth to continue gradually slowing
According to the flash estimate, the quarterly real GDP growth slowed to 0.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted) in the third quarter, which is still quite a decent growth. The annual growth accelerated from 1.8% in the second quarter to 2.8% (not ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2019
Gradually pressing on the breaks
Lithuanian economy is holding up better than most expected given the bleak global outlook. While season and calendar adjusted quarterly growth was only 0.1%, annual growth inched down only slightly down to 3.6 % (unadjusted). Third quarter annual g..
Macro Focus
October 21, 2019
Will the Russian economy be able to find the gas pedal?
Russia’s GDP growth is expected to remain modest for an emerging market… but its macro-fiscal buffers are strong.The policy mix prioritises stability over growth The list of factors that inhibit Russia’s actual and potential GDP growth is long: low..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 8, 2019
Inflation has slowed down
In September, the annual rate of inflation slowed down to 2.6% that is the lowest value in 2019. The prices of goods’ were rising by 2.4% and contributed to annual inflation the most, but prices of services’ were rising by 3%. The main determinants..
Flash comment: Estonia
October 8, 2019
Inflation decelerated in September
• Inflation has remained relatively modest despite a rapid growth in wages. • Inflation is forecast at 2.4% this year and at 2.3% in 2020. Inflation slowed from 2.4% in August to 2.2% in September. Goods were 1.4% and services 3.5% more expensive..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 3, 2019
Services PMI fell to 49.8 in September: Weak finish to the third quarter
• The purchasing managers’ index for the private service sector (Services PMI) dropped 4.4 points in September to 49.8. The index stayed in the growth zone in the third quarter at 52.1, but it continues to be lower than the historical average. This..
PMI Sweden
October 1, 2019
PMI fell to 46.3 in September: Manufacturing continues to slow
• The PMI dropped by 5.5 points in September to 46.3 from a downward revision of 51.8 in August. This is the largest monthly decline since autumn 2008 and was part of the reason why the PMI fell in the third quarter to the lowest level since early ..
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