Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Macro Focus
December 11, 2018
How much havoc could Brexit bring?
No matter Brexit outcome, trade with the UK will continue but the magnitude of it will depend on future agreement. Over time, however, supply chains and trade patterns could change, making it harder to predict flows of goods and services. If a Brex..
Flash comment: Latvia
December 10, 2018
Annual inflation at 3% in November
Annual inflation rate eased slightly in November to 3%, growing above 3% in the two preceding months. Prices of both goods and services also grew by 3% on annual basis. The main drivers of annual price growth in November were transport, housing and..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 5, 2018
Services PMI rose to 62.2 in November: New yearly high
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose by 5.8 points in November to 62.2 after having fallen four months in a row. It is too early, however, to determine whether conditions for service companies are going to str..
PMI Sweden
December 3, 2018
PMI rose to 56.7 in November: Expansion despite economic jitters
• The PMI rose in November to 56.7 from 55.0 in October, indicating a continued expansion in Swedish manufacturing. The outcome has to be seen as a show of strength against the backdrop of the lower PMI readings from the eurozone and other areas an..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2018
Economic growth accelerates to 4.2% yoy in the third quarter
In the third quarter, Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 4.2% yoy in real terms. Compared to the previous quarter GDP increased 0.4%, seasonally and working day corrected. In nominal terms, GDP increased 9.5% in the third quarter and 8.5% ytd.Econo..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2018
Annual GDP growth at 4.7% in the third quarter in Latvia
Revised data show slightly lower growth than the flash estimate suggested in the third quarter of 2018. GDP grew by 4.7% in annual terms while seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was even stronger at 5.3%. As growth in construction eased (10%..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 30, 2018
GDP revised upwards for the third quarter
As we expected, quarterly GDP growth has been revised up by one decimal point to -0.3% (SA) in the second GDP estimate. Annual growth has clocked in at 2.4%, two decimal points higher than reported initially. Season and calendar adjusted annual gro..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2018
Wage growth remains rapid and broad-based
In the third quarter, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1291, up by 7.5%, in a year. Median wage reached EUR 1000, +10.0%, over the year, according to the Tax Board. The average gross wage increased in all sectors, except for ad..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2018
Wage growth decelerated to 8% in Q3 in Latvia
In the third quarter, the average gross monthly wage was at 1006 euros, up by 8% compared to the same period a year ago. The wage growth was largely driven by pronounced labour shortage, minimum wage hike at the beginning of the year (by 50 euros),..
Macro Focus
November 27, 2018
Time to replace Merkel as leader of the center-right CDU
Top candidates provide different direction for CDU in the future The government parties struggle in polls, while the Greens party surges Whoever wins, the new leader will face tough political and economic decisions The battle to inherit Angela M..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 26, 2018
Rapid wage growth continues
Annual gross wage growth decelerated very slightly to 10% down from 10.5% a quarter ago. Private sector wage growth slowed to 9.3% from 10.4% annually. Meanwhile public sector wages accelerated further to 11.3% annually. Net wages increased by 9%, ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 16, 2018
Unemployment decline accelerated in Q3
• Unemployment rate down to 7% • Employment up by 1.9% annually • Number of economically active up by 0.2% annually • Labour shortages remain elevated Ongoing economic expansion continues driving demand for labour. Labour market conditions tigh..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2018
The shortage of labour keeps wage growth rapid
• The shortage of labour is on the same level as in the years of the previous economic boom.• During the next two years, according to Swedbank’s forecast, the gross wage growth should stay at 5-6%, employment rate will remain high and unemployment ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 9, 2018
Higher oil prices boost inflation
Annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in October compared to 2.4% in September. On a monthly basis prices grew by 0.6%. Core inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco accelerated to 1.9% up from 1.8%. The main factor determining price d..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 9, 2018
Employment continues rising
Despite the shrinking working-age population the labour market in Lithuania continues to surprise on the upside. The number of employed increased by 1.5%, compared to the same period a year ago, thanks largely to rising employment of men. The unemp..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 8, 2018
Slowdown, but not a downturn
The autumn of 2018 has been marked by financial market volatility in the presence of concerns that the next recession is getting closer. Most major economies have continued to grow at a decent pace, but political events cast doubt on the sustainabi..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 56.3 in October: Slowing expansion
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 56.3 in October from 56.6 in September. This means that the total index declined for the fourth consecutive month, reaching a new low for the year.• The sub-indexes for ..
PMI Sweden
November 1, 2018
PMI fell to 55.0 in October: Stabilization in the growth zone
• The PMI saw little change in October, falling 0.2 points to 55.0 compared with September. This means that the total index is still in the growth zone but at a lower level than the beginning of the year, signaling a slowing growth rate in the manu..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 30, 2018
Annual GDP growth at 4.8% in the third quarter
According to the flash estimate, Latvian economy expanded by 4.8% in Q3 compared to the same period in the previous year (seasonally and calendar unadjusted data). Quarterly growth was exceptionally strong at 1.8% (seasonally and calendar adjusted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2018
An unexpected slump in growth
Lithuanian economy disappointed in the third quarter of 2018. Annual GDP growth decelerated from 3.8% in the second quarter to 2.2% in the third. In seasonally and calendar adjusted terms, in the third quarter GDP increased by 2.7% annually and dec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 26, 2018
Nowcast points to faster GDP growth in Q3
The official GDP estimates come out with a substantial lag, but it is possible to determine the current level of economic activity using other indicators. Swedbank economists have developed a tool that allows to predict the current and near future ..
Macro Focus
October 16, 2018
The temperature is slowly rising in the Baltic economies
The Baltic economies are operating above their potential No overheating, but economic temperature is rising gradually Monitoring, fiscal prudence, and productivity-boosting reforms are necessary The Baltic economies are now fully recovered fro..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 8, 2018
Annual inflation surpasses 3% in September
Annual inflation exceeded 3% for the first time in more than a year, reaching 3.2% in September. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate in the past few months have been prices of goods. Categories with the largest contributions to the p..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 8, 2018
A slight pick up in price growth
Annual inflation has rebounded to 2.4% from 2.1% in August. Compared with August prices grew by 1.3%. Several main factors determined price growth recently. First of all, prices of energy products are increasing globally. Automobile fuel and solid ..
Flash comment: Estonia
October 5, 2018
Inflation remained above 3% in September
Inflation rate has fluctuated between 3% and 4% in recent months. Annual change in consumer prices amounted to 3.7% in September. Among different product groups, the prices of everyday essentials, i.e., housing, food, transport, have been contribut..
Latvian Economy
October 4, 2018
Latvia's labour market under pressure
Latvia’s labour market is showing some signs of overheating. Although competitiveness pressures are present, they are way below record highs seen in the pre-crisis period. The ongoing economic expansion has brought unemployment rate considerably..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 3, 2018
Services PMI fell to 56.6 in September: Downturn from high level
The purchasing manger's index for the service sector (Service PMI) fell to 56.6 in September from 57.1 in August. The September outcome means that the total index continued to decline in the third quarter and for the second quarter in a row, but re..
PMI Sweden
October 1, 2018
PMI rose to 55.2 in September: Manufacturing strength continues
• The PMI rose to 55.2 in September from 52.5 in August and means that the manufacturing sector remains in the growth zone, though at lower levels than at the beginning of 2018. The PMI has trended downward since the beginning of the year but stabi..
Macro Focus
September 21, 2018
Middle class in the Baltics
The Baltics get closer to the Western middle class income standard, but income inequality remains an issueA strong and well-off middle class, a sign of lower income inequality, important for economic growth Middle class incomes have grown substanti..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 20, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Riga and Vilnius but fell in Tallinn in the second quarter 2018
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 184.8 in Riga and 131.7 in Vilnius, but decreased to 156.3 in Tallinn.In Tallinn, the HAI fell by 3.1 points in the second quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as apartment price..
Flash comment: Lithuania
September 10, 2018
Inflation continues to ease despite rapid wage growth
Annual inflation eased to 2.1% in August and was the lowest since January 2017. Annual core inflation (without food and energy) stood at a modest 1.5%. The growth of consumer goods prices slowed down to 1.6% in August, while the pace services price..
PMI Sweden Service sector
September 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 57.1 in August: Down but a high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 57.1 in August from 59.0 in July. Despite the decline, a three-month moving average for August was unchanged at 58.6 compared with the corresponding average for July. • ..
PMI Sweden
September 3, 2018
PMI fell to 52.5 in August: Lowest level so far in 2018
• The PMI fell to 52.5 in August from 57.4 in July. Despite the decline, the outcome supports a continued manufacturing expansion. The biggest negative contribution came from the sub-index for production, followed by the sub-index for new orders. T..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 3, 2018
Annual GDP growth at 5.3% in the second quarter
Revised data show even a bit stronger economic growth in the second quarter than the flash estimate suggested. GDP expanded by 5.3% in annual terms, but seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was at more modest 4.4%. Nominal GDP growth reached a w..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2018
Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 3.7% in the 2nd quarter
Estonian GDP growth accelerated to 3.7% in the 2nd quarterReal GDP growth in Estonia accelerated to 3.7% yoy in the second quarter of 2018. The growth was stronger than in the first quarter (3.3%). In the first half, GDP growth was 3.5% in real ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 30, 2018
Good growth, poor policies
Ten years after the financial crisis, the global economy is back on track. Unfortunately, politics is off the rails. The contrast between decent economic growth and an uncertain political environment remains the main theme in the outlook for the co..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 28, 2018
Wage growth decelerated in the 2nd quarter
• In the second quarter, the average full-time gross wage amounted to EUR 1321, up by 6.4%, in a year. • Swedbank expects gross wage to grow by 6.6% in 2018 and by 6.0% in 2019 • Consumption remains moderate Wage growth decelerated as expect..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 27, 2018
Wage growth accelerates yet again
Gross wage growth surged to 10.5% in the second quarter of the 2018 again breaking the record for the post-crisis period. The average net wage grew a bit more timidly at 9.5% annually because non-taxable income allowance for children was replaced w..
Estonian Economy
August 22, 2018
The Estonian Economy - Is the housing market overheating?
Is the housing market overheating?Although housing affordability in Estonia has improved, compared with the peak of the last real estate boom, it has stayed at the same level for the past four years.Households’ confidence in purchasing or buildi..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 14, 2018
Second quarter’s unemployment rate the lowest in 10 years
• Employment rose rapidly but only among the part-time workers • The unemployment rate decreased more than expected • The shortage of labour has reached the levels of last economic boom Employment rose rapidly but only among the part-time wo..
Macro Focus
August 13, 2018
New sanctions against Russia
Limited impact on real economy from currently introduced sanctions, although some volatility in financial markets Recent weakening of the RUB and decline in stock market is probably an overreaction (i.e. not so much about the currently introduced ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 10, 2018
Unemployment rate at its lowest in almost a decade
The rapidly growing economy and high wage growth did not go unnoticed in the labour market. The rate of unemployment dropped to 5.9% in the second quarter of this year and was 1.1 pp lower than a year ago. This was the lowest rate of unemployment s..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 8, 2018
Annual inflation stood at 2.6% in July
Annual inflation rate in July was 2.6%, a tad slower than in June. Although price growth differed across various categories, overall price growth of goods and services remained moderate and similar to that in June. Goods’ prices grew by 2.4% on ann..
PMI Sweden Service sector
August 3, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.1 in July: A strong outcome despite the decline
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 59.1 in July from 59.8 in June. A three-month moving average fell 0.3 points to 58.6 in July compared with the corresponding average for June. • The sub-index for suppli..
PMI Sweden
August 1, 2018
PMI rose to 57.4 in July: Expansion continues
• The PMI rose to 57.4 in July, which is 3.2 points higher than in June. The outcome supports a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was clearly the biggest contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-indexes for new o..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 31, 2018
Annual GDP growth picks up to 5.1% in the second quarter
Economic growth picked up to 5.1% in annual terms in the second quarter of 2018. However, note that it was partly contributed by larger number of working days. Calendar adjusted GDP grew at a more moderate pace, 4.2%. Moreover, adjusted data show a..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 30, 2018
GDP growth retains pace and grows 3.7% in Q2
Annual GDP growth kept its fast pace in Q2 - the economy increased by 3.7%. In quarterly terms, the economy grew by 0.9% (seasonally and calendar adjusted). The main drivers of growths in the second quarter were most likely consumption and invest..
Macro Focus
July 12, 2018
Global trade wars and their impact on the Baltic countries
What is the current state of trade tensions? What is the most likely future scenario? How vulnerable are Baltic economies and what is the likely impact? Last year was marked with rising global economic growth, improving confidence and expectat..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 10, 2018
Annual inflation accelerates to 2.8% in June
June has marked the fastest annual inflation rate this year. Annual inflation reached 2.8% in June. Annual growth of goods’ prices accelerated to 2.5% while service prices grew by 3.3%, a similar rate as before. In the months to come annual inflati..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 4, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.8 in June: High level persists in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.8 in June from 57.0 in May. A three-month moving average for June registered 59.0, which was 0.3 points higher than the corresponding average in May and reversed a fo..
PMI Sweden
July 2, 2018
PMI fell to 54.2 in June: Despite decline, expansion continues
• The PMI fell to 54.2 in June from 55.8 in May. The outcome supports a continued expansion in manufacturing, however. The sub-index for new orders produced the biggest negative contribution to the PMI, followed by production and employment. Suppli..
Macro Focus
June 28, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators for the Nordics and the Baltics
Sweden leads in environmental protection but lags Nordic peers in other areas No Nordic country on track to meet environmental goals in Agenda 2030 All Nordic countries perform well on governance and on social inclusion Swedbank’s Sustainabili..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 8, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Tallinn and Riga but worsened in Vilnius in the first quarter 2018
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 182.0 in Riga and 152.0 in Tallinn, but decreased to 133.1 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.9 points in the first quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as very rapid wa..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 57.0 in May but stays at a high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 57.0 in May from 60.1 in April. A three-month moving average dropped to 58.7, which is 0.7 points lower than the corresponding average in April, marking the fourth conse..
Macro Focus
June 4, 2018
Italian politics: fire is out, but smoke still there
Italian bond yields have come down, as the government has been approved by the president, but future policy remains very uncertain. Confrontation with the EU, reversing past reforms, expansion of fiscal deficit could again ignite fear and volatilit..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 1, 2018
Economic growth boosted by construction in the first quarter
• Quarterly GDP growth at 1.6% (s.a.), annual growth at 4.2% (n.s.a) in the first quarter • Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, with only finance and transport sectors in red • Surge in construction and associated investment increase ..
PMI Sweden
June 1, 2018
PMI rose to 55.8 in May, remaining at a healthy level
• The PMI rose to 55.8 in May from 54.5 in April, rebounding after a two-month decline. The PMI consequently remains at a healthy level. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, followed by employment. Inventories also con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 1, 2018
Strong and well-balanced economic growth continues in Q1
Revised GDP figures show that the Lithuanian economy sustained the growth momentum and in annual terms increased by 3.7% in the first quarter of this year. Compared to the last quarter of 2017, GDP was 0.9% higher (in seasonally and working-day adj..
Macro Focus
June 1, 2018
Nordic and Baltic economies vulnerable to US trade tariffs
US steel and aluminium tariffs to worsen business sentiment, but small direct effect on growth in the Nordics and the BalticsThere are no winners in a trade war – tariffs will hurt the US as much as the EUThe direct effects on exports and imports a..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 31, 2018
Deceleration of economic growth in 1Q2018 was expected
GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 3.6% yoy in 1Q2018 in real terms. The slowdown was expected, as close to 5% growth in 2017 was above the potential, by far. Nominal GDP growth decelerated to 8%, but it’s still very robust.Labour shortage has..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2018
Wage growth accelerated in the first quarter
• The growth of the average gross wage accelerated to 7.7%, over the year, in the first quarter of 2018. • Families’ assessment of their financial situation is the highest on record. Rapid wage growth continued in the first quarter, around 8%..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 28, 2018
Record post-crisis wage growth in Q1
The annual average gross wage growth was the fastest since the financial crisis in 2009 and stood at 9.5% in the first quarter of the year. The average net wage grew a bit slower - it increased by 8.6% due to the fact that additional income tax red..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 23, 2018
Labour market tightening continued in the first quarter
Strong economic activity supported further labour market tightening at the beginning of this year. The number of unemployed decreased by about 11 thousand or 12% in the first quarter of this year compared to a year earlier. The fall in the unemploy..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2018
Demand for labour remains strong
• Higher economic activity lifted employment. • The number of the inactive declined substantially and the unemployment rate grew due to a labour market reform. According to Statistics Estonia, employment increased by 0.6% despite a strong bas..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 11, 2018
Unemployment at 7.2 % in Q1, employment increases marginally
The unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the first quarter of this year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Somewhat unexpectedly, the annual decline in the labour force eased to -0.8% and the decline in employment stalled (+0.1%). Despite rapid ec..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 10, 2018
Annual inflation at 2% in April
Annual inflation decreased to 2.0% in April with both prices of goods and services decelerating slightly on annual basis. Goods prices grew by 1.5% whereas service prices – by 3.3%. Global food prices have recently exhibited an upward trend owing..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 9, 2018
Annual inflation falls to 2.3% in April
In line with our expectations annual inflation continued to ease and stood at 2.3% in April. In annual terms, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Consumer prices were 0.6% higher compared to March - month..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 4, 2018
Services PMI rose to 60.1 in April: Trend remains stable
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 60.1 in April, which is 0.9 points higher than the March reading. The increase was mainly driven by the sub-index for business volumes, which is then followed by the sub..
PMI Sweden
May 3, 2018
PMI fell to 54.5 in April: Slowdown from high levels
The PMI fell to 54.5 in April from 55.9 in March. This is the second month in a row that the PMI fell, but developments in the manufacturing sector remain expansionary. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the total decrease, follow..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 2, 2018
Annual GDP growth picks up to 4.3% in the first quarter
The economic growth remained strong at the beginning of 2018. According to the first quarter flash estimates, the quarterly GDP growth was 1.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted data), while the annual growth accelerated to 4.3% compared to 4.2% (n..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2018
GDP expands by 3.6% in the first quarter
In the first quarter of this year real GDP increased by 3.6%, in annual terms. In quarterly terms GDP grew by 0.8% (season and working-day adjusted). Strong growth is supported by solid retail growth, which accelerated to 6.7% in the 1st quarter. ..
Estonian Economy
April 25, 2018
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth In a post-crisis period, the growth of Estonian labour productivity has been weakEstonian labour productivity is lower than majority of European Union member..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 10, 2018
Annual inflation decelerates to 2.7% in March
Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 6, 2018
Inflation decelerated in March
Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 5, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.2 in March: Up marginally from February
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.2 in March, an increase of 0.2 points compared with February. The increase was driven by the sub-indices for suppliers’ delivery times and employment, while the indic..
PMI Sweden
April 3, 2018
PMI fell to 55.9 in March: Continued expansion
• The PMI fell to 55.9 in March, down 4.0 points from February. Despite the decline, the reading indicates a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was the biggest negative contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-ind..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 27, 2018
Trade tensions imperil the global momentum
In the past year, the global economy has enjoyed a strong rebound in global trade. This has contributed to lifting the global economy out of the stagnant growth path that followed the financial crisis. US tariffs and the risk of retaliation, in add..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 14, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Riga and Vilnius, but decreased in Tallinn in the fourth quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..
Estonian Economy
March 12, 2018
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 8, 2018
Annual inflation rate declines for the sixth month in a row in February
In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 7, 2018
Annual inflation drops to 3.5% in February
Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.0 in February: Remains at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell 2.3 points to 59.0 in February. Despite the decline, the Services PMI remains at a high level. All sub-indices contributed negatively, with the sub-index for new orders acc..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 2, 2018
Tightening labour market lifted wages by 7.9% in 2017
• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 1, 2018
Wage growth was rapid and broad-based
• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..
PMI Sweden
March 1, 2018
PMI rose to 59.9 in February: The trend remains strong
• The PMI rose to 59.9 in February from 57.0 in January, a gain of 2.9 points. The high number is an indication of the continued strength in manufacturing. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, adding 2.0 points to the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 1, 2018
Last year’s great performance is unlikely to be repeated soon
Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2018
GDP growth fastest in six years
The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2018
Estonia’s GDP growth was broad-based and the fastest of last six years
In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2018
Gross wages grow at 8.5% in 2017
Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2018
Higher employment and lower unemployment rate
• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2018
Inflation at 4% in January and is set to ease this year
Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 12, 2018
Annual headline inflation at 2.0% in the first month of 2018
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 9, 2018
Flash comment: Lithuania - February 9, 2018
The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in January: Begins 2018 at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 61.3 in January from 64.6 in December. The Services PMI clearly remains at a high level, however, which means that the economic indicator suggests that 2018 has started ..
PMI Sweden
February 1, 2018
PMI fell to 57.0 in January: Despite dip, 2018 begins strongly
• The PMI fell to 57.0 in January. This is 3.4 points lower than in December, which means that the new year began with a decline. Despite the downturn, the index remains at a high level. The sub-index for new orders was the largest negative contrib..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2018
GDP growth still strong, but slows to 4.2% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2018
Solid GDP growth to mark the end of a year
Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 24, 2018
Global growth – impressive so far, pitfalls ahead
As we enter 2018, the outlook for global growth is on a stronger footing. Euro area growth keeps improving, while the US has kept up speed. Emerging mar-kets are enjoying a positive momentum. The global cyclical upswing benefits the Nordic and Balt..
Macro Focus
January 24, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda
Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 10, 2018
Average annual inflation at 2.9% in 2017
After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..
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