Swedbank Macro Research

Archive

A list of the 100 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Macro Focus
August 13, 2018
New sanctions against Russia
Limited impact on real economy from currently introduced sanctions, although some volatility in financial markets Recent weakening of the RUB and decline in stock market is probably an overreaction (i.e. not so much about the currently introduced ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 10, 2018
Unemployment rate at its lowest in almost a decade
The rapidly growing economy and high wage growth did not go unnoticed in the labour market. The rate of unemployment dropped to 5.9% in the second quarter of this year and was 1.1 pp lower than a year ago. This was the lowest rate of unemployment s..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 8, 2018
Annual inflation stood at 2.6% in July
Annual inflation rate in July was 2.6%, a tad slower than in June. Although price growth differed across various categories, overall price growth of goods and services remained moderate and similar to that in June. Goods’ prices grew by 2.4% on ann..
PMI Sweden Service sector
August 3, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.1 in July: A strong outcome despite the decline
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 59.1 in July from 59.8 in June. A three-month moving average fell 0.3 points to 58.6 in July compared with the corresponding average for June. • The sub-index for suppli..
PMI Sweden
August 1, 2018
PMI rose to 57.4 in July: Expansion continues
• The PMI rose to 57.4 in July, which is 3.2 points higher than in June. The outcome supports a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was clearly the biggest contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-indexes for new o..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 31, 2018
Annual GDP growth picks up to 5.1% in the second quarter
Economic growth picked up to 5.1% in annual terms in the second quarter of 2018. However, note that it was partly contributed by larger number of working days. Calendar adjusted GDP grew at a more moderate pace, 4.2%. Moreover, adjusted data show a..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 30, 2018
GDP growth retains pace and grows 3.7% in Q2
Annual GDP growth kept its fast pace in Q2 - the economy increased by 3.7%. In quarterly terms, the economy grew by 0.9% (seasonally and calendar adjusted). The main drivers of growths in the second quarter were most likely consumption and invest..
Macro Focus
July 12, 2018
Global trade wars and their impact on the Baltic countries
What is the current state of trade tensions? What is the most likely future scenario? How vulnerable are Baltic economies and what is the likely impact? Last year was marked with rising global economic growth, improving confidence and expectat..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 10, 2018
Annual inflation accelerates to 2.8% in June
June has marked the fastest annual inflation rate this year. Annual inflation reached 2.8% in June. Annual growth of goods’ prices accelerated to 2.5% while service prices grew by 3.3%, a similar rate as before. In the months to come annual inflati..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 4, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.8 in June: High level persists in the service sector
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.8 in June from 57.0 in May. A three-month moving average for June registered 59.0, which was 0.3 points higher than the corresponding average in May and reversed a fo..
PMI Sweden
July 2, 2018
PMI fell to 54.2 in June: Despite decline, expansion continues
• The PMI fell to 54.2 in June from 55.8 in May. The outcome supports a continued expansion in manufacturing, however. The sub-index for new orders produced the biggest negative contribution to the PMI, followed by production and employment. Suppli..
Macro Focus
June 28, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators for the Nordics and the Baltics
Sweden leads in environmental protection but lags Nordic peers in other areas No Nordic country on track to meet environmental goals in Agenda 2030 All Nordic countries perform well on governance and on social inclusion Swedbank’s Sustainabili..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 8, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Tallinn and Riga but worsened in Vilnius in the first quarter 2018
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 182.0 in Riga and 152.0 in Tallinn, but decreased to 133.1 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, the HAI rose by 5.9 points in the first quarter of 2018, compared with the same period in 2017, as very rapid wa..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 57.0 in May but stays at a high level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 57.0 in May from 60.1 in April. A three-month moving average dropped to 58.7, which is 0.7 points lower than the corresponding average in April, marking the fourth conse..
Macro Focus
June 4, 2018
Italian politics: fire is out, but smoke still there
Italian bond yields have come down, as the government has been approved by the president, but future policy remains very uncertain. Confrontation with the EU, reversing past reforms, expansion of fiscal deficit could again ignite fear and volatilit..
Flash comment: Latvia
June 1, 2018
Economic growth boosted by construction in the first quarter
• Quarterly GDP growth at 1.6% (s.a.), annual growth at 4.2% (n.s.a) in the first quarter • Economic growth remains strong and broad-based, with only finance and transport sectors in red • Surge in construction and associated investment increase ..
PMI Sweden
June 1, 2018
PMI rose to 55.8 in May, remaining at a healthy level
• The PMI rose to 55.8 in May from 54.5 in April, rebounding after a two-month decline. The PMI consequently remains at a healthy level. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, followed by employment. Inventories also con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 1, 2018
Strong and well-balanced economic growth continues in Q1
Revised GDP figures show that the Lithuanian economy sustained the growth momentum and in annual terms increased by 3.7% in the first quarter of this year. Compared to the last quarter of 2017, GDP was 0.9% higher (in seasonally and working-day adj..
Macro Focus
June 1, 2018
Nordic and Baltic economies vulnerable to US trade tariffs
US steel and aluminium tariffs to worsen business sentiment, but small direct effect on growth in the Nordics and the BalticsThere are no winners in a trade war – tariffs will hurt the US as much as the EUThe direct effects on exports and imports a..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 31, 2018
Deceleration of economic growth in 1Q2018 was expected
GDP growth in Estonia decelerated to 3.6% yoy in 1Q2018 in real terms. The slowdown was expected, as close to 5% growth in 2017 was above the potential, by far. Nominal GDP growth decelerated to 8%, but it’s still very robust.Labour shortage has..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 29, 2018
Wage growth accelerated in the first quarter
• The growth of the average gross wage accelerated to 7.7%, over the year, in the first quarter of 2018. • Families’ assessment of their financial situation is the highest on record. Rapid wage growth continued in the first quarter, around 8%..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 28, 2018
Record post-crisis wage growth in Q1
The annual average gross wage growth was the fastest since the financial crisis in 2009 and stood at 9.5% in the first quarter of the year. The average net wage grew a bit slower - it increased by 8.6% due to the fact that additional income tax red..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 23, 2018
Labour market tightening continued in the first quarter
Strong economic activity supported further labour market tightening at the beginning of this year. The number of unemployed decreased by about 11 thousand or 12% in the first quarter of this year compared to a year earlier. The fall in the unemploy..
Flash comment: Estonia
May 15, 2018
Demand for labour remains strong
• Higher economic activity lifted employment. • The number of the inactive declined substantially and the unemployment rate grew due to a labour market reform. According to Statistics Estonia, employment increased by 0.6% despite a strong bas..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 11, 2018
Unemployment at 7.2 % in Q1, employment increases marginally
The unemployment rate stood at 7.2% in the first quarter of this year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. Somewhat unexpectedly, the annual decline in the labour force eased to -0.8% and the decline in employment stalled (+0.1%). Despite rapid ec..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 10, 2018
Annual inflation at 2% in April
Annual inflation decreased to 2.0% in April with both prices of goods and services decelerating slightly on annual basis. Goods prices grew by 1.5% whereas service prices – by 3.3%. Global food prices have recently exhibited an upward trend owing..
Flash comment: Lithuania
May 9, 2018
Annual inflation falls to 2.3% in April
In line with our expectations annual inflation continued to ease and stood at 2.3% in April. In annual terms, prices of consumer goods and services increased by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively. Consumer prices were 0.6% higher compared to March - month..
PMI Sweden Service sector
May 4, 2018
Services PMI rose to 60.1 in April: Trend remains stable
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 60.1 in April, which is 0.9 points higher than the March reading. The increase was mainly driven by the sub-index for business volumes, which is then followed by the sub..
PMI Sweden
May 3, 2018
PMI fell to 54.5 in April: Slowdown from high levels
The PMI fell to 54.5 in April from 55.9 in March. This is the second month in a row that the PMI fell, but developments in the manufacturing sector remain expansionary. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the total decrease, follow..
Flash comment: Latvia
May 2, 2018
Annual GDP growth picks up to 4.3% in the first quarter
The economic growth remained strong at the beginning of 2018. According to the first quarter flash estimates, the quarterly GDP growth was 1.7% (seasonally and calendar adjusted data), while the annual growth accelerated to 4.3% compared to 4.2% (n..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 30, 2018
GDP expands by 3.6% in the first quarter
In the first quarter of this year real GDP increased by 3.6%, in annual terms. In quarterly terms GDP grew by 0.8% (season and working-day adjusted). Strong growth is supported by solid retail growth, which accelerated to 6.7% in the 1st quarter. ..
Estonian Economy
April 25, 2018
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth
Estonian enterprises need to put more effort in to improve their productivity growth In a post-crisis period, the growth of Estonian labour productivity has been weakEstonian labour productivity is lower than majority of European Union member..
Flash comment: Lithuania
April 10, 2018
Annual inflation decelerates to 2.7% in March
Inflation is steadily continuing its expected path of easing with the base effect of last year’s excise duty hikes dissipating. Annual inflation dropped to 2.7% down from 3.5% in February. In March prices were higher 0.4% compared to February, main..
Flash comment: Estonia
April 6, 2018
Inflation decelerated in March
Inflation decelerated from 3.1% in February to 2.8% in March as food prices rose less than in the previous month. Regulated prices of goods and services rose by 7.5% and non-regulated prices by 1.5%, over the year, in March. Food, alcohol, and ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
April 5, 2018
Services PMI rose to 59.2 in March: Up marginally from February
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 59.2 in March, an increase of 0.2 points compared with February. The increase was driven by the sub-indices for suppliers’ delivery times and employment, while the indic..
PMI Sweden
April 3, 2018
PMI fell to 55.9 in March: Continued expansion
• The PMI fell to 55.9 in March, down 4.0 points from February. Despite the decline, the reading indicates a continued expansion in manufacturing. The sub-index for production was the biggest negative contributor to the PMI, followed by the sub-ind..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
March 27, 2018
Trade tensions imperil the global momentum
In the past year, the global economy has enjoyed a strong rebound in global trade. This has contributed to lifting the global economy out of the stagnant growth path that followed the financial crisis. US tariffs and the risk of retaliation, in add..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
March 14, 2018
Housing affordability index improved in Riga and Vilnius, but decreased in Tallinn in the fourth quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 186.3 in Riga, and 129.9 in Vilnius, but decreased to 151.5 in Tallinn. • In Tallinn, affordability decreased slightly by 0.3 point in the fourth quarter of 2017, compared with the same period in 2..
Estonian Economy
March 12, 2018
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging
Increasing Estonian exports’ market share in Finland will be more challenging Estonia’s exports to Finland are the most diversified among the largest trade partnersExported goods from Estonia have gained market share on the Finnish marketEsto..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 8, 2018
Annual inflation rate declines for the sixth month in a row in February
In February, annual inflation rate declined for the sixth month in a row, reaching 1.8%. On monthly basis, prices grew by 0.2%. Service prices have once again taken over as the lead contributor to annual price growth. While goods’ price growth dece..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 7, 2018
Annual inflation drops to 3.5% in February
Annual inflation eased to 3.5% in February down from 4% in January. Month on month consumer prices dropped by 0.2%. Inflation is largely following the path of our forecasts. Annual growth of service prices decelerated to 5.1%, while prices of goods..
PMI Sweden Service sector
March 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 59.0 in February: Remains at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell 2.3 points to 59.0 in February. Despite the decline, the Services PMI remains at a high level. All sub-indices contributed negatively, with the sub-index for new orders acc..
Flash comment: Latvia
March 2, 2018
Tightening labour market lifted wages by 7.9% in 2017
• Average gross wage growth at 7.9% in 2017 • Unemployment rate down to 8.7% in 2017 • Employment growth inched up in 2H 2017, compensating the fall in 1H 2017 • Labour shortage poses an increasing challenge to employers Labour market tightenin..
Flash comment: Estonia
March 1, 2018
Wage growth was rapid and broad-based
• The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by 6% and the real net wage by 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage decelerated to 6.5% in 2017. The rapid gro..
PMI Sweden
March 1, 2018
PMI rose to 59.9 in February: The trend remains strong
• The PMI rose to 59.9 in February from 57.0 in January, a gain of 2.9 points. The high number is an indication of the continued strength in manufacturing. The sub-index for new orders contributed the most to the increase, adding 2.0 points to the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
March 1, 2018
Last year’s great performance is unlikely to be repeated soon
Thanks to recovering global trade and still supportive domestic demand, last year the Lithuanian economy enjoyed the fastest growth since 2013. In real terms, GDP expanded by 3.8% in 2017 - exactly in line with our forecast. The domestic demand r..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 28, 2018
GDP growth fastest in six years
The fourth quarter GDP growth was confirmed at 4.2% year-on-year (0.3% quarter-on-quarter). For the year as a whole, the real GDP expanded by 4.5%, which is the fastest pace in the past six years. Moreover, in terms of GDP volume the economy finall..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 28, 2018
Estonia’s GDP growth was broad-based and the fastest of last six years
In 2017, Estonia’s GDP growth accelerated to 4.9% in real terms and to 9% in nominal terms. Economic growth was the fastest of last six years. The growth exceeded our expectations (our recent forecast in January was 4.4%). The growth was broad-base..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 26, 2018
Gross wages grow at 8.5% in 2017
Tight labour market continues to support strong wage growth. Annual gross wage growth inched up to 7.5% in the fourth quarter. In 2017 gross wages grew at 8.5%, exceeding our expectations. Generally growth was quite strong across industries. Wage..
Flash comment: Estonia
February 14, 2018
Higher employment and lower unemployment rate
• Labour market has become even tighter. • Employment increased by 2.2% and the unemployment rate decreased further to 5.8% in 2017. Last year brought good news for Estonian employees. Higher economic activity lifted demand for labour. Employ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 14, 2018
Inflation at 4% in January and is set to ease this year
Inflation has crept up a little in January and stood at 4% annually. Prices rose by 0.3% since December. As previously prices of services grew at a faster pace than goods, 5.3% and 3.6% respectively. Notably the change in prices of services has bee..
Flash comment: Latvia
February 12, 2018
Annual headline inflation at 2.0% in the first month of 2018
In January, monthly headline inflation was 0%, thus annual inflation rate stood at 2.0%. Goods’ inflation continued to retreat and goods’ prices grew by 1.5% on annual basis. Slowdown mostly owed to slower food price growth, which reflects global f..
Flash comment: Lithuania
February 9, 2018
Flash comment: Lithuania - February 9, 2018
The unemployment rate declined to 7.1% last year and was 0.8 pp lower than a year ago. This seems like great news before one takes a closer look. Apparently, the increase in the activity rate (76% for 15-64 year-olds) could no longer alleviate t..
PMI Sweden Service sector
February 5, 2018
Services PMI fell to 61.3 in January: Begins 2018 at a strong level
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell to 61.3 in January from 64.6 in December. The Services PMI clearly remains at a high level, however, which means that the economic indicator suggests that 2018 has started ..
PMI Sweden
February 1, 2018
PMI fell to 57.0 in January: Despite dip, 2018 begins strongly
• The PMI fell to 57.0 in January. This is 3.4 points lower than in December, which means that the new year began with a decline. Despite the downturn, the index remains at a high level. The sub-index for new orders was the largest negative contrib..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 30, 2018
GDP growth still strong, but slows to 4.2% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2017. Nevertheless, it was the second fastest rate of growth over the past five years. The strong figure, however, was largely due to base effects, as the quarter-on-quarter growt..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 30, 2018
Solid GDP growth to mark the end of a year
Economy has gained pace after a slump 3rd quarter. GDP grew 3.6% year-on-year and 1.5% quarter-on-quarter (Seasonally and working-day adjusted) in Q4. Strong run at the end of the year solidified a 3.8% GDP growth for 2017 - exactly in line with ou..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
January 24, 2018
Global growth – impressive so far, pitfalls ahead
As we enter 2018, the outlook for global growth is on a stronger footing. Euro area growth keeps improving, while the US has kept up speed. Emerging mar-kets are enjoying a positive momentum. The global cyclical upswing benefits the Nordic and Balt..
Macro Focus
January 24, 2018
Swedbank’s Sustainability Indicators: towards the 2030 Agenda
Sustainability Indicators assess progress towards UN Sustainable development goals Focus on sustainable development identifies business opportunities and highlights risks Sweden should speed up reforms to remain among the leaders, while the Balt..
Flash comment: Latvia
January 10, 2018
Average annual inflation at 2.9% in 2017
After four years of low headline inflation, year 2017 brought faster price growth. In line with our forecast, average annual inflation accelerated to 2.9% in 2017. Food prices, especially dairy, meat and vegetable, rose by 6% in 2017 and accounted ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
January 9, 2018
Average annual inflation at 3.7% in 2017
Annual inflation decelerated to 3.9% in December, while in monthly terms, consumer prices did not change. Annual growth in the prices of both, goods and services, eased towards the end of the year, to 3.4% and 5.3%, respectively. The dissipating..
Flash comment: Estonia
January 8, 2018
Inflation accelerated to 3.4% in 2017
Inflation picked up last year due to higher commodity prices and an increase in excise tax rates. Higher excise taxes added 0.9 percentage point to inflation in 2017. Among different products and services, food and non-alcoholic beverages cont..
PMI Sweden Service sector
January 4, 2018
Services PMI rose to 64.6 in December: Record-high finish to 2017
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 64.6 in December. This is 2.7 points higher than in November. The December reading was the highest in 2017. The sub-index for business volumes contributed the most toget..
PMI Sweden
January 2, 2018
PMI fell to 60.4 in December: Despite decline, a strong finish
• The PMI fell to 60.4 in December, which is 2.9 points lower than in November. The index remains at a high level, however. Employment produced the biggest negative contribution to the PMI at 1.3 points, followed by the sub-index for new orders, wh..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
December 19, 2017
Housing affordability remains high in all three Baltic capitals in the third quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 148.6 in Tallinn, 177.2 in Riga, and 124.8 in Vilnius.In Tallinn, affordability increased by 2.9 point in the third quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as apartment price gro..
Macro Focus
December 14, 2017
With faster growth comes faster inflation
• Baltics at the top of EU 28 price growth as economic growth accelerates • Rapid wage growth is a blessing and a curse – notable service price increases in Lithuania and Estonia • Winter is not coming to Latvia – service inflation to heat up
Macro Focus
December 11, 2017
Bitcoin – another bubble or a monetary revolution?
Why did cryptocurrencies appreciate so much this year? Initial Coin Offering (ICO) – cheaper IPO, or a letter from the Nigerian prince? The future is likely to be shaped by regulators, not aficionados
Flash comment: Latvia
December 8, 2017
Annual inflation slowly retreats
For the third month in a row inflation slowly recedes. In November, annual inflation rate was 2.7%. Despite retreating inflation, it is considerably higher than a year before. In the eleven months of this year, annual average inflation was 3.0% (fo..
Flash comment: Lithuania
December 8, 2017
Inflation lingers at 4.4% annually
Annual inflation has not changed from October to November and was at 4.4%. Prices grew 0.3% month over month in November. Meanwhile, average annual inflation reached 3.5%. Prices of goods in annual terms grew 4%, while services price growth eased..
Baltic Sea Report
December 6, 2017
Heart-warming growth is a poor excuse to postpone reforms
• Growth at its cyclical peak • Productivity is the key to income convergence in the Baltics • Sustainable development – where do we stand? • Universal basic income – utopia or an urgent necessity? Growth at its cyclical peak The upswing in global ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 5, 2017
Services PMI rose to 61.8 in November – stays at high levels
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.8 in November, 0.4 points higher than in October. The sub-index for new orders contributed 1.3 points to the increase in the Services PMI, while other sub-indices con..
PMI Sweden
December 1, 2017
PMI rose to 63.3 in November: Manufacturing on overdrive
• The PMI rose to 63.3 in November, which is 4.0 points higher than in October and the third highest reading this year. New orders were the biggest contributor to the PMI at just over two points, followed by the contribution from the sub-index for ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2017
GDP growth at the top speed of the cycle
The real GDP growth was confirmed at 5.8% YoY (nsa) – the fastest growth since 2012! Most likely, it is the fastest pace of growth within this business cycle. The quarterly growth was at 1.5% (swda). The size of the economy is close to the pre-cris..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2017
Robust GDP growth continued in 3Q2017 as expected
In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to the growth comes from t..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2017
Wage growth remained rapid in Q3
• Wage growth remains relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by around 5% and the real net wage by close to 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2017
Slightly slower but still rapid wage growth in Q3
• Annual gross monthly wage growth at 7.5% in Q3 as labour market tightens • Wages up in almost all sectors • Payroll tax cuts and minimum wage hike to give additional boost to wage growth next year After surging 8.7% in the second quarter, the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 24, 2017
Wage growth slows as minimum wage effect fades
Annual wage growth slowed down to 7.2% in the third quarter. The waning effect of minimum monthly wage increases was the main reason for the slowdown. Wage growth was also dragged down by sluggish wage growth in the public sector. Its wages grew..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2017
Higher GDP growth lifts demand for labour
• The employment rate reached the highest level in 20 years. • The unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. Higher economic activity reflects in the developments in the labour market. In the third quarter, employment grew by 2.0%, the number of une..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 10, 2017
Unemployment down to 6.6%, but employment declines in Q3
The unemployment rate declined to 6.6% in the third quarter of this year and was 0.9 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained flat at 76.1% and thus did not alleviate the negative effect of the shrinking working age population on the labour..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 9, 2017
The start of descent for inflation
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in October, while annual inflation decelerated to 4.4%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3.3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods decelerated from 4,4% in September to 4% in October. ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 9, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update - November 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook presents the latest economic forecasts for Sweden, the Nordic and Baltic countries and the major global economies. In this update, current issues that have a bearing on economic developments are analysed. Global – Strong ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 3, 2017
Services PMI fell to 61.4 in October: Second highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell from 63.8 in September to 61.4 in October. All sub-indices except employment negatively contributed to the Services PMI. New orders were the biggest reason for the drop in ..
PMI Sweden
November 2, 2017
PMI fell to 59.3 in October but stays at a high level
• The PMI fell to 59.3 in October, a decrease of 4.4 points compared with September, which was the second highest level so far this year. The sub-index for new orders was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by production. Individual mo..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 30, 2017
Strong GDP growth surpasses all expectations
In the third quarter 2017, Latvian real GDP expanded 5.8% YoY nsa (up 1.5% QoQ swda). It is the fastest rate of growth since 2012, and in terms of volume GDP is about back to its pre-crisis level of 2017. Growth is broad across all sectors with con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2017
GDP growth weakens, probably temporary
In the third quarter of this year GDP was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Seasonally and working day adjusted annual growth was 3.4%, while quarterly growth was a meagre 0.1%. This is markedly slower growth than during the first two quarters of this y..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 9, 2017
Inflation picks up to 4.8% in September
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 1% in September, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.8%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods accelerated from 3.8% in August to 4.4% in September. ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 4, 2017
Services PMI rose to 63.8 in September: Highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 63.8 in September from 55.5 in August. The gains were broad, with positive contributions from all sub-indices. The increase in new orders, which was the biggest contribu..
PMI Sweden
October 2, 2017
PMI rose to 63.7 in September – second highest level so far in 2017
• The PMI rose by 9.0 points to 63.7 in September, compared with 54.7 in August, the second highest level so far this year. The production index was the biggest contributor to increase, followed by new orders. Individual months should be interprete..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 14, 2017
The housing affordability index improved in all three Baltic capitals in the second quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 159.9 in Tallinn, 183.5 in Riga, and 129.4 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, affordability increased by 0.2 point in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as wage growth gained ..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 9, 2017
Price growth picks up again in August
As we expected a slowdown in inflation rate in July was temporary. In August annual price growth picked up again and was 3.1%. Food prices contributed the most to inflation growth in August. Among food prices, butter has been in the spotlight rec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
September 8, 2017
Annual inflation accelerates to 4.4% in August
In monthly terms, consumer prices remained stable, however, annual inflation surged to 4.4% in August. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.6%. The effect of increased excise duties on alcohol is still observed, however the effect..
Macro Focus
September 8, 2017
Poorer than their parents: the struggles of Europe's young
Hit most by great recession and rising house pricesUpcoming challenges: population ageing and tech revolution Negative effects on growth, public finances, and political stability In some respects, the current young Europeans can be thought of as..
PMI Sweden Service sector
September 5, 2017
Services PMI fell to 55.4 in August: Still high despite decline
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) dropped to a still high 55.4 in August from 58.9 in July. The decline was broad with negative contributions from all sub-indices. New orders, which posted the biggest negative con..
PMI Sweden
September 1, 2017
PMI dropped to 54.7 in August – lowest level to date in 2017
The PMI fell by 5.6 points to 54.7 in August, compared with 60.3 in July. Production was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by new orders. Both contributed negatively by more than two points each. All sub-indices contributed negativel..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 31, 2017
Economy records a rapid 4% annual growth two quarters in a row
In the second quarter the real GDP increased by 4% (not seasonally adjusted) year on year (YoY), recording the same growth rate as in the first quarter. The pick-up was seen in almost all sectors, except finance and insurance, and operations with r..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2017
Economic growth in 2Q was the fastest of the last six years: 5.7% yoy
We expected continued robust GDP growth in the second quarter, but 5.7% yoy (1.3% qoq swda) was above expectations. As inflation has picked up, GDP nominal growth accelerated to 10.2% yoy. Statistics Estonia revised up GDP levels and growth rates o..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 30, 2017
Tight labour market lifts wages
• Wage growth will remain relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Nevertheless, the gap between wage and productivity growth rates will narrow this year. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in the second q..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 29, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook August 2017
Economic prospects are bright in advanced economies: the euro area is grow-ing rapidly while the US economy shows signs of maturing. Emerging markets have good conditions for a continued recovery. Political risks in Europe have subsided, but populi..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 25, 2017
Wage growth remained strong in Q2
Nominal gross wages growth decelerated only slightly to 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 6% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth in private sector continued exceeding that of the public se..
Macro Focus
August 17, 2017
Lithuania: short cyclical upturn or structural change ahead?
GDP accelerated due to strong domestic and foreign demand Labour market hit its limit, but credit and investment cycle has way to go High-value-added export sector rising from low levels but needs more favourable environment
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