Swedbank Macro Research

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A list of the 50 most recent publications. You can choose a specific publication using the drop down list below.

Macro Focus
December 11, 2017
Bitcoin – another bubble or a monetary revolution?
Why did cryptocurrencies appreciate so much this year? Initial Coin Offering (ICO) – cheaper IPO, or a letter from the Nigerian prince? The future is likely to be shaped by regulators, not aficionados
Flash comment: Latvia
December 08, 2017
Annual inflation slowly retreats
For the third month in a row inflation slowly recedes. In November, annual inflation rate was 2.7%. Despite retreating inflation, it is considerably higher than a year before. In the eleven months of this year, annual average inflation was 3.0% (fo..
Flash comment: Lithuania
December 08, 2017
Inflation lingers at 4.4% annually
Annual inflation has not changed from October to November and was at 4.4%. Prices grew 0.3% month over month in November. Meanwhile, average annual inflation reached 3.5%. Prices of goods in annual terms grew 4%, while services price growth eased..
Baltic Sea Region Report
December 06, 2017
Heart-warming growth is a poor excuse to postpone reforms
• Growth at its cyclical peak • Productivity is the key to income convergence in the Baltics • Sustainable development – where do we stand? • Universal basic income – utopia or an urgent necessity? Growth at its cyclical peak The upswing in global ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
December 05, 2017
Services PMI rose to 61.8 in November – stays at high levels
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 61.8 in November, 0.4 points higher than in October. The sub-index for new orders contributed 1.3 points to the increase in the Services PMI, while other sub-indices con..
PMI Sweden
December 01, 2017
PMI rose to 63.3 in November: Manufacturing on overdrive
• The PMI rose to 63.3 in November, which is 4.0 points higher than in October and the third highest reading this year. New orders were the biggest contributor to the PMI at just over two points, followed by the contribution from the sub-index for ..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 30, 2017
GDP growth at the top speed of the cycle
The real GDP growth was confirmed at 5.8% YoY (nsa) – the fastest growth since 2012! Most likely, it is the fastest pace of growth within this business cycle. The quarterly growth was at 1.5% (swda). The size of the economy is close to the pre-cris..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 30, 2017
Robust GDP growth continued in 3Q2017 as expected
In 3Q2017 Estonian GDP expanded 4.2% yoy and 0.3% qoq (swad) in real terms. In nominal terms, GDP increased by 8.9% yoy. During the first three quarters, GDP has increased by 4.8% yoy in real terms. The major contribution to the growth comes from t..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 29, 2017
Wage growth remained rapid in Q3
• Wage growth remains relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Swedbank expects the average gross wage to grow by around 5% and the real net wage by close to 9% in 2018. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in..
Flash comment: Latvia
November 29, 2017
Slightly slower but still rapid wage growth in Q3
• Annual gross monthly wage growth at 7.5% in Q3 as labour market tightens • Wages up in almost all sectors • Payroll tax cuts and minimum wage hike to give additional boost to wage growth next year After surging 8.7% in the second quarter, the ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 24, 2017
Wage growth slows as minimum wage effect fades
Annual wage growth slowed down to 7.2% in the third quarter. The waning effect of minimum monthly wage increases was the main reason for the slowdown. Wage growth was also dragged down by sluggish wage growth in the public sector. Its wages grew..
Flash comment: Estonia
November 14, 2017
Higher GDP growth lifts demand for labour
• The employment rate reached the highest level in 20 years. • The unemployment rate declined to 5.2%. Higher economic activity reflects in the developments in the labour market. In the third quarter, employment grew by 2.0%, the number of une..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 10, 2017
Unemployment down to 6.6%, but employment declines in Q3
The unemployment rate declined to 6.6% in the third quarter of this year and was 0.9 pp lower than a year ago. Activity rate remained flat at 76.1% and thus did not alleviate the negative effect of the shrinking working age population on the labour..
Flash comment: Lithuania
November 09, 2017
The start of descent for inflation
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in October, while annual inflation decelerated to 4.4%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3.3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods decelerated from 4,4% in September to 4% in October. ..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
November 09, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook Update - November 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook presents the latest economic forecasts for Sweden, the Nordic and Baltic countries and the major global economies. In this update, current issues that have a bearing on economic developments are analysed. Global – Strong ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
November 03, 2017
Services PMI fell to 61.4 in October: Second highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell from 63.8 in September to 61.4 in October. All sub-indices except employment negatively contributed to the Services PMI. New orders were the biggest reason for the drop in ..
PMI Sweden
November 02, 2017
PMI fell to 59.3 in October but stays at a high level
• The PMI fell to 59.3 in October, a decrease of 4.4 points compared with September, which was the second highest level so far this year. The sub-index for new orders was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by production. Individual mo..
Flash comment: Latvia
October 30, 2017
Strong GDP growth surpasses all expectations
In the third quarter 2017, Latvian real GDP expanded 5.8% YoY nsa (up 1.5% QoQ swda). It is the fastest rate of growth since 2012, and in terms of volume GDP is about back to its pre-crisis level of 2017. Growth is broad across all sectors with con..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 30, 2017
GDP growth weakens, probably temporary
In the third quarter of this year GDP was 3.1% higher than a year ago. Seasonally and working day adjusted annual growth was 3.4%, while quarterly growth was a meagre 0.1%. This is markedly slower growth than during the first two quarters of this y..
Flash comment: Lithuania
October 09, 2017
Inflation picks up to 4.8% in September
In monthly terms, consumer prices rose by 1% in September, while annual inflation accelerated to 4.8%. Average annual inflation picked up to 3%. Annual growth in the prices of consumer goods accelerated from 3.8% in August to 4.4% in September. ..
PMI Sweden Service sector
October 04, 2017
Services PMI rose to 63.8 in September: Highest level this year
• The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose to 63.8 in September from 55.5 in August. The gains were broad, with positive contributions from all sub-indices. The increase in new orders, which was the biggest contribu..
PMI Sweden
October 02, 2017
PMI rose to 63.7 in September – second highest level so far in 2017
• The PMI rose by 9.0 points to 63.7 in September, compared with 54.7 in August, the second highest level so far this year. The production index was the biggest contributor to increase, followed by new orders. Individual months should be interprete..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
September 14, 2017
The housing affordability index improved in all three Baltic capitals in the second quarter of 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 159.9 in Tallinn, 183.5 in Riga, and 129.4 in Vilnius. • In Tallinn, affordability increased by 0.2 point in the second quarter of 2017 compared with the same period in 2016, as wage growth gained ..
Flash comment: Latvia
September 09, 2017
Price growth picks up again in August
As we expected a slowdown in inflation rate in July was temporary. In August annual price growth picked up again and was 3.1%. Food prices contributed the most to inflation growth in August. Among food prices, butter has been in the spotlight rec..
Flash comment: Lithuania
September 08, 2017
Annual inflation accelerates to 4.4% in August
In monthly terms, consumer prices remained stable, however, annual inflation surged to 4.4% in August. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.6%. The effect of increased excise duties on alcohol is still observed, however the effect..
Macro Focus
September 08, 2017
Poorer than their parents: the struggles of Europe's young
Hit most by great recession and rising house pricesUpcoming challenges: population ageing and tech revolution Negative effects on growth, public finances, and political stability In some respects, the current young Europeans can be thought of as..
PMI Sweden Service sector
September 05, 2017
Services PMI fell to 55.4 in August: Still high despite decline
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) dropped to a still high 55.4 in August from 58.9 in July. The decline was broad with negative contributions from all sub-indices. New orders, which posted the biggest negative con..
PMI Sweden
September 01, 2017
PMI dropped to 54.7 in August – lowest level to date in 2017
The PMI fell by 5.6 points to 54.7 in August, compared with 60.3 in July. Production was the biggest contributor to the decline, followed by new orders. Both contributed negatively by more than two points each. All sub-indices contributed negativel..
Flash comment: Latvia
August 31, 2017
Economy records a rapid 4% annual growth two quarters in a row
In the second quarter the real GDP increased by 4% (not seasonally adjusted) year on year (YoY), recording the same growth rate as in the first quarter. The pick-up was seen in almost all sectors, except finance and insurance, and operations with r..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 31, 2017
Economic growth in 2Q was the fastest of the last six years: 5.7% yoy
We expected continued robust GDP growth in the second quarter, but 5.7% yoy (1.3% qoq swda) was above expectations. As inflation has picked up, GDP nominal growth accelerated to 10.2% yoy. Statistics Estonia revised up GDP levels and growth rates o..
Flash comment: Estonia
August 30, 2017
Tight labour market lifts wages
• Wage growth will remain relatively high as labour demand increases more than supply. • Nevertheless, the gap between wage and productivity growth rates will narrow this year. The growth of the average gross wage accelerated in the second q..
Swedbank Economic Outlook
August 29, 2017
Swedbank Economic Outlook August 2017
Economic prospects are bright in advanced economies: the euro area is grow-ing rapidly while the US economy shows signs of maturing. Emerging markets have good conditions for a continued recovery. Political risks in Europe have subsided, but populi..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 25, 2017
Wage growth remained strong in Q2
Nominal gross wages growth decelerated only slightly to 8.7%, while real net wages rose by 6% in the second quarter of this year compared with the same period a year ago. Wage growth in private sector continued exceeding that of the public se..
Macro Focus
August 17, 2017
Lithuania: short cyclical upturn or structural change ahead?
GDP accelerated due to strong domestic and foreign demand Labour market hit its limit, but credit and investment cycle has way to go High-value-added export sector rising from low levels but needs more favourable environment
Flash comment: Estonia
August 14, 2017
Lack of labour a growing concern
• The labour market remained tight. • The unemployment rate increased due to a reform. In the second quarter of 2017, the unemployment rate was 7.0%, the employment rate 66.9% and the labour force participation rate 72% in Estonia. The labour..
Latvian Economy
August 09, 2017
Tax reform in Latvia – a small but worthy step in the right direction
Tax reform package passed by the Parliament on July 27 involves changes to the labour, corporate, and excise taxes, as well as measures to combat shadow economy. Overall it is a move in the right direction, with more to be done. The reform will hav..
Flash comment: Lithuania
August 08, 2017
Annual inflation accelerates again in July
Annual consumer price growth reached 3.9% in July. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 2.3%. Higher prices of alcohol and tobacco (resulted by a hike in excise duties), dairy products, fuels and those of restaurant services contrib..
PMI Sweden Service sector
August 03, 2017
Services PMI rose to 59.0 in July: Broad gains
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) rose from 57.2 to 59.0 in July. All sub-indices contributed positively and together business volumes, suppliers’ delivery times and new orders explain 90 percent of the increase i..
PMI Sweden
August 01, 2017
PMI dropped to 60.4 in July – decline from a high level
The PMI fell by 1.9 points to 60.4 in July, compared with 62.3 in June. The decline was mainly driven by new orders, though several sub-indices contributed negatively. With the exception of May, the Manufacturing PMI has stayed above 60.0 since Dec..
Flash comment: Latvia
July 31, 2017
Latvia’s economic growth in the first half of 2017 twice as fast as last year
GDP growth in Latvia accelerated to 4.1% YoY in the second quarter (+4.0% YoY in the Q1) of 2017. Seasonally and calendar adjusted growth was even more impressive, i.e. 4.8%, as there were two working days less this year. Quarterly growth slightly ..
Flash comment: Lithuania
July 31, 2017
Strong growth continues: GDP up by 3.9% in Q2
The Lithuanian government and the businesses can relax for now and enjoy their summer vacation – the Lithuanian economy continues growing at an accelerated pace. The Lithuanian GDP increased by 3.9% in Q2 of this year, compared to the same perio..
Estonian Economy
July 20, 2017
Watch out for the growth in job vacancies
Job vacancy rate just above average, but annual growth amongst highest in the euro area Unemployment and vacancy rate curve suggests no crisis yet… …but job vacancy rates likely to increase further Annual growth of vacancy rate second highest in th..
Flash comment: Estonia
July 07, 2017
Inflation accelerated in the first half of the year
Inflation accelerated to around 3% in the first half of the year in Estonia. The contribution of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased substantially in recent months. Food and non-alcoholic beverages amount to a quarter of household expenditur..
PMI Sweden Service sector
July 05, 2017
Services PMI fell slightly to 57.3 in June: Delivery times weigh on index
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector (Services PMI) fell marginally to 57.3 in June from 57.9 in May. New orders and employment contributed positively. Other sub-indexes contributed negatively with suppliers’ delivery times as the ..
PMI Sweden
July 03, 2017
PMI rose to 62.4 in June – broad gains driven by new orders
The PMI rose by 3.6 points to 62.4 in June, compared with 58.8 in May. Although outcomes for individual months should be interpreted cautiously, the gains were broad with all sub-indexes in the PMI contributing positively. The largest increases wer..
Estonian Economy
June 16, 2017
Winds of change in the retail market
• Profitability remains a concern • Developments across subsectors vary • Challenges ahead Sales are on the rise, but profitability remains a concern Retail trade enterprises expect their sales to rise (by 6.1% in 2017, according to a re..
Baltic Housing Affordability Index
June 15, 2017
The housing affordability index (HAI) increased to 171.2 in Riga and record high of 134.7 in Vilnius, but decreased to 146.4 in Tallinn
In Tallinn, affordability decreased by 7.3 points in the first quarter of this year compared with the same period in 2016, as price growth was more than double that of wage growth. In Riga, the HAI increased by 5 points as a price pickup was comp..
Flash comment: Lithuania
June 08, 2017
Annual inflation eases marginally in May
Annual consumer price growth decelerated marginally to 3.4% in May. Meanwhile, the average annual inflation picked up to 1.8%. Higher prices of alcohol (resulted by a hike in excise duties) and fuel, as well as those of restaurant services contr..
PMI Sweden Service sector
June 05, 2017
PMI Services fell to 57.9 in May: Broad slide with emphasis on orders
Corrects erroneus e-mail subjectThe Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector (PMI Services) fell to 57.9 in May from 60.3. The trend indicates that the rate of increase in the sector has topped out. The fall in May was mainly driven by new..
PMI Sweden
June 01, 2017
PMI fell to 58.8 in May – the fall continues
The PMI fell by 3.7 points to 58.8 in May, down from 62.5 in April. The decline in PMI was broad-based as all sub-indices contributed negatively to the PMI, with the largest drops from new orders and employment components. Nevertheless, monthly cha..

Please note that in 2014 the publication "Global Economy" changed name to "Macro Focus".

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